Background: Because secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is associated with worse prognosis, early predictive tools are needed. We aimed to use systematic literature review and advanced methods to create and validate a clinical tool for estimating individual patient risk of transition to SPMS over five years., Methods: Data from the Jacobs Multiple Sclerosis Center (JMSC) and the Multiple Sclerosis Center Amsterdam (MSCA) was collected between 1994 and 2022. Participants were relapsing-remitting adult patients at initial evaluation. We created the tool in four stages: (1) identification of candidate predictors from systematic literature review, (2) ordinal cutoff determination, (3) feature selection, (4) feature weighting., Results: Patients in the development/internal-validation/external-validation datasets respectively (n = 787/n = 522/n = 877) had a median age of 44.1/42.4/36.6 and disease duration of 7.7/6.2/4.4 years. From these, 12.6 %/10.2 %/15.4 % converted to SPMS (median=4.9/5.2/5.0 years). The DAAE Score was named from included predictors: Disease duration, Age at disease onset, Age, EDSS. It ranges from 0 to 12 points, with risk groups of very-low=0-2, low=3-7, medium=8-9, and high≥10. Risk of transition to SPMS increased proportionally across these groups in development (2.7 %/7.4 %/18.8 %/40.2 %), internal-validation (2.9 %/6.8 %/26.8 %/36.5 %), and external-validation (7.5 %/9.6 %/22.4 %/37.5 %)., Conclusion: The DAAE Score estimates individual patient risk of transition to SPMS consistently across datasets internationally using clinically-accessible data. With further validation, this tool could be used for clinical risk estimation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest T. Pryshchepova, J.R. Jelgerhuis, and N. Bergsland have nothing to disclose T.A Fuchs received research support from the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis, serves on the editorial board of Frontiers in Neurology, and received consulting fees for Click Therapeutics. R. Zivadinov received personal compensation from Bristol Myers Squibb, EMD Serono, Sanofi, Janssen, Biogen, Filterlex for speaking and consultant fees. He received financial support for research activities from Sanofi, Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, Octave, Mapi Pharma, CorEvitas, Protembis, Filterlex and V-WAVE Medical. B. Weinstock-Guttman received honoraria as a speaker and/or as a consultant for Biogen Idec, Viatris, Sana, Immunic, EMD Serono, Sanofi, Novartis, BMS, Labcorp, and Horizon. Dr Weinstock-Guttman received research funds from Biogen Idec, EMD Serono, Genzyme, Genentech, Sanofi, Novartis. M.G. Dwyer received research support from Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, Mapi Pharma, Merck Serono, Keystone Heart Ltd., Protembis GmbH, and V-Wave Ltd., and consulting fees Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck Serono, and Keystone Heart Ltd. R.H.B. Benedict received research support from Bristol Meyers Squibb, National Institutes of Health, and National Multiple Sclerosis Society, consultation or speaking fees from Bristol Meyers Squibb, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, and EMD Serono, and royalties from Psychological Assessment Resources. D. Jakimovski received an honorarium for consulting from EMD Serono and AstraZeneca. He has received research funds from JuneBrain Inc, the Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centers (CMSC), NIH CTSA under award UL1TR001412 and by The Clinician-Scientists Transdisciplinary Aging Research (ClinSTAR), funded by the NIH NIA under award U24AG065204. T. Uher received financial support for conference travel from Biogen, Novartis, Sanofi, Roche and Merck and speaker honoraria from Biogen, Novartis and Roche as well as support for research activities from Biogen and Sanofi F. Barkhof serves on the steering committee or Data Safety Monitoring Board member for Biogen, Merck, ATRI/ACTC and Prothena. He consults for Roche, Celltrion, Rewind Therapeutics, Merck, IXICO, Jansen, and Combinostics. He has research agreements with Merck, Biogen, GE Healthcare, and Roche. He is a co-founder and shareholder of Queen Square Analytics LTD B.M.J. Uitdehaag received research support and/or consultancy fees from Biogen Idec, Genzyme, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, Teva and Immunic Therapeutics J. Killestein received research grants for multicentre investigator initiated trials DOT-MS trial, ClinicalTrials. gov Identifier: NCT04260711 (ZonMW) and BLOOMS trial (ZonMW and Treatmeds), ClinicalTrials. gov Identifier: NCT05296161); received consulting fees for F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Biogen, Teva, Merck, Novartis and Sanofi/Genzyme (all payments to institution); reports speaker relationships with F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Biogen, Immunic, Teva, Merck, Novartis and Sanofi/Genzyme (all payments to institution); adjudication committee of MS clinical trial of Immunic (payments to institution only). E.M.M. received speaker fees from Merck and Novartis. M.M. Schoonheim serves on the editorial board of Neurology and Frontiers in Neurology, receives research support from the Dutch MS Research Foundation, Eurostars-EUREKA, ARSEP, Amsterdam Neuroscience, MAGNIMS and ZonMW (Vidi grant, project number 09150172010056) and has served as a consultant for or received research support from Atara Biotherapeutics, Biogen, Celgene/Bristol Meyers Squibb, EIP, Sanofi, MedDay and Merck., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)