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Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015-2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack. While wind speeds increase most during fall (+2.2% per decade), surface stress rises most in winter (+5.1% per decade) being amplified by reduced internal ice stress. This is because, as sea ice concentration decreases in a warming climate, less energy is dissipated by the weaker ice pack, resulting in more momentum transfer to the ocean. The increased momentum transfer accelerates Arctic Ocean surface velocity (+31-47% by 2100), leading to elevated ocean kinetic energy and enhanced vertical mixing. The enhanced surface stress also increases the Beaufort Gyre Ekman convergence and freshwater content, impacting Arctic marine ecosystems and the downstream ocean circulation. The impacts of projected changes are profound, but different and simplified model formulations of atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer introduce considerable uncertainty, highlighting the need for improved coupling in climate models., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.

Climate change is opening the Arctic Ocean to increasing human impact and ecosystem changes. Arctic fjords, the region's most productive ecosystems, are sustained by a diverse microbial community at the base of the food web. Here we show that Arctic fjords become more prokaryotic in the picoplankton (0.2-3 µm) with increasing water temperatures. Across 21 fjords, we found that Arctic fjords had proportionally more trophically diverse (autotrophic, mixotrophic, and heterotrophic) picoeukaryotes, while subarctic and temperate fjords had relatively more diverse prokaryotic trophic groups. Modeled oceanographic connectivity between fjords suggested that transport alone would create a smooth gradient in beta diversity largely following the North Atlantic Current and East Greenland Current. Deviations from this suggested that picoeukaryotes had some strong regional patterns in beta diversity that reduced the effect of oceanographic connectivity, while prokaryotes were mainly stopped in their dispersal if strong temperature differences between sites were present. Fjords located in high Arctic regions also generally had very low prokaryotic alpha diversity. Ultimately, warming of Arctic fjords could induce a fundamental shift from more trophic diverse eukaryotic- to prokaryotic-dominated communities, with profound implications for Arctic ecosystem dynamics including their productivity patterns., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Climbing plants exhibit specialized shoots, called "searchers", to cross spaces and alternate between spatially discontinuous supports in their natural habitats. To achieve this task, searcher shoots combine both primary and secondary growth processes of their stems in order to support, orientate and explore their extensional growth into the environment. Currently, there is an increasing interest in developing models to describe plant growth and posture. However, the interactions between the sensing activity (e.g. photo-, gravi-, proprioceptive sensing) and the elastic responses are not yet fully understood. Here, we aim to model the extension and rigidification of searcher shoots. Our model defines variations in the radius (and consequently in mass distribution) along the shoot based on experimental data collected in natural habitats of two climbing species: Trachelospermum jasminoides (Lindl.) Lem. and Condylocarpon guianense Desf.. Using this framework, we predicted the sensory aspect of a plant, that is, the plant's response to external stimuli, and the plant's proprioception, that is, the plant's "self-awareness". The results suggest that the inclusion of the secondary growth in a model is fundamental to predict the postural development and self-supporting growth phase of shoots in climbing plants., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Vecchiato et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large‐scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high‐resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on‐shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics. Plain Language Summary: The Weddell Sea continental shelf is presently filled with water masses that are too cold to melt the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf from below. If warmer offshore water masses gain access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf and flow into the ice shelf cavity, the ocean‐driven melting would increase rapidly and cause ice shelf thinning. Increased ice shelf melting would supply the continental shelf with freshwater that influence sea ice production and generation of dense water masses and cause an increased discharge of grounded ice, which would contribute to global sea level rise. Two main factors currently prevent warm water from accessing the Weddell Sea continental shelf. First, the warm water is located deeper than the continental shelf and does not have direct access. Second, the Weddell Sea continental shelf is filled with dense water masses that block an inflow of warmer and lighter water. We use a regional ocean model to investigate what would happen if the warm offshore water is lifted higher up or if the dense water masses become fresher and lighter. We find that the Weddell Sea system is robust, and we need to make extreme changes to both factors to allow warm water access to the continental shelf. Key Points: Thermocline heaving and freshening of the high‐density shelf water are both needed to cause a cold‐to‐warm regime shift in the Weddell SeaThe presence of dense shelf water in Filchner Trough limits inflow of warm water toward the Filchner Ice Shelf frontReduced Filchner Trough overflow may cause increased on‐shelf transport, and thus warming, in the western Weddell Sea [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sarracenia pitcher plants display interspecific differences in prey, so far only explained by pitcher morphology. We hypothesized that pitcher odours play a role in prey composition. We first compared odour and prey compositions among Sarracenia taxa grown together, forming a kinship gradient from S. purpurea known to capture primarily ants towards S. leucophylla known to capture many flying insects: S. purpurea, S. X mitchelliana, and S. X Juthatip soper & S. X leucophylla horticultural hybrids. We then measured several pitcher traits to disentangle the contributions of morphology and odour to prey variation. The pitcher odours were as diverse as those of generalist-pollinated flowers but with notable differences among taxa, reflecting their relatedness. VOC similarity analyses revealed taxon specificities, that mirrored those revealed by prey similarity analyses. S. X leucophylla stood out by being more specialised in flying insects like bees and moths and by releasing more monoterpenes known to attract flower visitors. S. X Juthatip soper trapped as many bees but fewer moths, sesquiterpenes contributing less to its scent. Ants and Diptera were the main prey of the other two with fatty-acid-derivative-dominated scents. Quantities of the different prey groups can be inferred 98% from quantities of the odour classes and pitcher dimensions. Two syndromes were revealed: ants associated with fatty-acid-derivatives and short pitchers; flying insects associated with monoterpenes, benzenoids and tall pitchers. In S. X leucophylla, emission rate of fatty-acid-derivatives and pitcher length explained most variation in ant captures; monoterpenes and pitcher length explained most variation in bee and moth captures; monoterpenes alone explained most variation in Diptera and wasp captures. Our results suggest that odours are key factors of the diet composition of pitcher plants. They support the hypothesis of perceptual exploitation of insect biases in carnivorous plants and provide new insights into the olfactory preferences of insect groups., Competing Interests: This work was publicly supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR-16-IDEX-0006 to LG, CV and DG. under the “Investissements d’avenir” program), which funded material, plants and chemical analyses, as well as the PhD salary of CD. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript., (Copyright: © 2023 Dupont et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of anthropogenic CO 2 and an important foraging area for top trophic level consumers. However, iron limitation sets an upper limit to primary productivity. Here we report on a considerably dense late summer phytoplankton bloom spanning 9000 km 2 in the open ocean of the eastern Weddell Gyre. Over its 2.5 months duration, the bloom accumulated up to 20 g C m -2 of organic matter, which is unusually high for Southern Ocean open waters. We show that, over 1997-2019, this open ocean bloom was likely driven by anomalies in easterly winds that push sea ice southwards and favor the upwelling of Warm Deep Water enriched in hydrothermal iron and, possibly, other iron sources. This recurring open ocean bloom likely facilitates enhanced carbon export and sustains high standing stocks of Antarctic krill, supporting feeding hot spots for marine birds and baleen whales., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

High concentrations of microplastic particles are reported across the Arctic Ocean-yet no meaningful point sources, suspension timelines, or accumulation areas have been identified. Here we use Lagrangian particle advection simulations to model the transport of buoyant microplastic from northern European rivers to the high Arctic, and compare model results to the flux of sampled synthetic particles across the main entrance to the Arctic Ocean. We report widespread dispersal along the Eurasian continental shelf, across the North Pole, and back into the Nordic Seas; with accumulation zones over the Nansen basin, the Laptev Sea, and the ocean gyres of the Nordic Seas. The equal distribution of sampled synthetic particles across water masses covering a wide time frame of anthropogenic influence suggests a system in full saturation rather than pronounced injection from European sources, through a complex circulation scheme connecting the entire Arctic Mediterranean. This circulation of microplastic through Arctic ecosystems may have large consequences to natural ecosystem health, highlighting an ever-increasing need for better waste management., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of circulation in fjords hosting marine-terminating ice shelves is challenging because of the complexity of processes involved in such environments. This often requires a comprehensive model setup. The following elements are needed: bathymetry (usually unknown beneath the glacier tongue), ice shelf draft (impacting water column thickness), oceanographic state (including tidal elevation, salinity, temperature and velocity of the water masses), sea ice and atmospheric forcing. Moreover, a high spatial resolution is needed, at least locally, which may be augmented with a coarser and computationally cheaper (nested) model that provides sufficiently realistic conditions at the boundaries. Here, we describe procedures to systematically create such a setup that uses the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) for the Petermann Fjord, Northwest Greenland. The first simulations are validated against temperature and salinity observations from the Petermann Fjord in September 2019. We provide•Complete bathymetry, ice-draft and water column thickness datasets of the Petermann Fjord, with an improved representation of the topography underneath the glacier tongue.•Boundary conditions for ocean, atmosphere and sea ice derived from a suite of high-resolution regional models that can be used to initialize and run the regional ocean model with realistic geophysical settings., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.)

To investigate the role of tides inWeddell Sea ocean-ice shelf melt interactions, and resulting consequences for ocean properties and sea ice interactions, we develop a regional ocean-sea ice model configuration, with time-varying ocean boundary and atmospheric forcing, including the deep open ocean (at 2.5-4 km horizontal resolution), the southwestern continental shelf (≈2.5 km), and the adjacent cavities of easternWeddell, Larsen, and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves (FRIS, 1.5-2.5 km). Simulated circulation, water mass, and ice shelf melt properties compare overall well with available open ocean and cavity observational knowledge. Tides are shown to enhance the kinetic energy of the time-varying flow in contact with the ice shelves, thereby increasing melt. This dynamically driven impact of tides on net melting is to almost 90% compensated by cooling through the meltwater that is produced but not quickly exported from regions of melting in theWeddell Sea cold-cavity regime. The resulting systematic tide-driven enhancement of both produced meltwater and its refreezing on ascending branches of, especially the FRIS, cavity circulation acts to increase net ice shelf melting (by 50% in respect to the state without tides, ≈50 Gt yr-1). In addition, tides also increase the melt-induced FRIS cavity circulation, and the meltwater export by the FRIS outflow. Simulations suggest attendant changes on the open-ocean southwestern continental shelf, characterized by overall freshening and small year-round sea ice thickening, as well as in the deep southwesternWeddell Sea in the form of a marked freshening of newly formed bottom waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Mesoscale eddies are known to transport heat and biogeochemical properties from Arctic Ocean boundary currents to basin interiors. Previous hydrographic surveys and model results suggest that eddy formation may be common in the Atlantic Water (AW) inflow area north of Svalbard, but no quantitative eddy survey has yet been done for the region. Here vorticity and water property signatures are used to identify and track AW eddies in an eddy‐resolving sea ice‐ocean model. The boundary current sheds AW eddies along most of the length of the continental slope considered, from the western Yermak Plateau to 40°E, though eddies forming east of 20°E are likely more important for slope‐to‐basin transport. Eddy formation seasonality reflects seasonal stability properties of the boundary current in the eastern portion of the study domain, but on and immediately east of the Yermak Plateau enhanced eddy formation during summer merits further investigation. AW eddies tend to be anticyclonic, have radii close to the local deformation radius, and be centered in the halocline. They transport roughly 0.16 Sv of AW and, due to their warm cores, 1.0 TW away from the boundary current. These findings suggest eddies may be important for halocline ventilation in the Eurasian Basin, as has been shown for Pacific Water eddies in the Canadian Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating ice shelves are the Achilles' heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted 1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models 2-8 , but primarily used previous-generation scenarios 9 and climate models 10 , and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios 11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

The diversification of ecological roles and related adaptations in closely related species within a lineage is one of the most important processes linking plant evolution and ecology. Plant architecture offers a robust framework to study these processes as it can highlight how plant structure influences plant diversification and ecological strategies. We investigated a case of gradual evolution of branching architecture in Atractocarpus spp. (Rubiaceae), forming a monophyletic group in New Caledonia that has diversified rapidly, predominantly in rainforest understory habitats. We used a transdisciplinary approach to depict architectural variations and revealed multiple evolutionary transitions from a branched (Stone's architectural model) to a monocaulous habit (Corner's architectural model), which involved the functional reduction of branches into inflorescences. We propose an integrative functional index that assesses branching incidence on functional traits influencing both assimilation and exploration functions. We showed that architectural transitions correlate with ecologically important functional traits. Variation in ecologically important traits among closely relatives, as supported by the architectural analysis, is suggestive of intense competition that favored divergence among locally coexisting species. We propose that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations causing expansion and contraction of rainforest could also have offered ecological opportunities for colonizers in addition to the process of divergent evolution.

Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden is a major outlet glacier in Northeast-Greenland. Although earlier studies showed that the floating part near the grounding line thinned by 30% between 1999 and 2014, the temporal ice loss evolution, its relation to external forcing and the implications for the grounded ice sheet remain largely unclear. By combining observations of surface features, ice thickness and bedrock data, we find that the ice shelf mass balance has been out of equilibrium since 2001, with large variations of the thinning rates on annual/multiannual time scales. Changes in ice flux and surface ablation are too small to produce this variability. An increased ocean heat flux is the most plausible cause of the observed thinning. For sustained environmental conditions, the ice shelf will lose large parts of its area within a few decades and ice modeling shows a significant, but locally restricted thinning upstream of the grounding line in response.

High Calanus finmarchicus abundances were recorded in wintertime in Vestfjorden, close to the main cod breeding grounds off Lofoten and Vesterålen, northern Norway. The mean abundance for locations with water depth >500 m was ∼37000 ind. m -2 (range: 26700-49000 ind. m -2 ). To our knowledge, this is the first report of massive overwintering of C. finmarchicus on the Norwegian shelf. Because of the observed size and location of this population, we argue that local overwintering on the northern Norwegian shelf can contribute significantly to sustain a C. finmarchicus population on the shelf during the period of first feeding for cod larvae. This is supported by a particle tracking model.

Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica experience rapid mass loss and grounding line retreat due to enhanced ocean thermal forcing from Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) reaching the grounding lines. We use simulated Lagrangian particles advected with a looping 1 year output from the Southern Ocean high‐resolution model to backtrack the transport and cooling of CDW to these glaciers. For the simulated year 2005–2006, we find that the median time needed to reach the grounding lines from the edge of the ASE is 3 years. In addition, the Antarctic Coastal Current contributes an equal number of particles as off‐shelf sources to the grounding lines of Pine Island and Thwaites. For CDW coming from off‐shelf, results from SOhi indicate that 25%–66% of the cooling occurs within ice shelf cavities. Plain Language Summary: The glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica are contributing rapidly to sea level rise in response to enhanced melt by warm, salty Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). We use an ocean numerical model to trace the sources, pathways, and cooling of warm waters to reach glacier grounding lines. We find that it takes multiple years for off‐shelf perturbations to reach the glaciers and that the colder Antarctic Coastal Current contributes the same amount of water to the grounding lines of Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers as off‐shelf CDW sources. The model also reveals that half of the cooling of CDW occurs under the ice shelves, which is an effect not accounted for in most models used for projecting sea level rise. Key Points: From a 2005–2006 simulation, it takes about 3 years for water to reach the grounding lines from the edge of the Amundsen Sea EmbaymentThe simulation shows the Antarctic Coastal Current contributing equal amounts of water to Pine Island and Thwaites as off‐shelf sourcesSOhi results indicate that 1/4 to 2/3 of the cooling between the shelf break and the grounding lines occurs within the cavities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ship heave effects in the swell-prevalent Southern Ocean induce frequent false overturns in density profiles, and conventional Thorpe scale analysis leads to unrealistically large diapycnal diffusivities. Another critical factor causing large positive biases in Thorpe scale analysis concerns the Ozmidov to Thorpe scales ratio a often considered constant and equal to 0.8. A revised Thorpe scale analysis is proposed with an innovative segment-by-segment approach to circumvent heaveinduced false overturns together with best-fitting a functions to Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean (DIMES) data, which yields realistic diffusivities in the Drake Passage region. The revised Thorpe scale method applied to a finely-resolved CTD section across the Drake Passage yields typical diffusivities of O (10-5-10-3 m2 s-1), with the largest values being preferentially concentrated close to the bottom at major circumpolar fronts, consistent with nearby DIMES microstructure observations. In the southern Drake Passage the method highlights a middepth (500-1500 m) mixing maximum of 10-4-10-3 m2 s-1 in the Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW) layer due to large intrusions of Warm Deep Water (a cold/fresh variety of LCDW) of Weddell Gyre origin. The inferred middepth mixing maximum in intrusive regions, which is associated with isopycnal eddy stirring rather than caused by internal waves or double diffusive mixing, supports the short-circuiting paradigm of meridional overturning circulation in the southwestern Scotia Sea region and has important climatic implications in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational "MIPkit" synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polynyas play a critical role in the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and the enhancement of polar primary productivity. Accurate and exhaustive identification of Antarctic polynyas is fundamental to advancing in-depth research. However, due to methodological limitations, previous studies paid more attention to frequent polynyas and infrequent polynyas have not been investigated much despite that they could be vulnerable to climate change. Inspired by a cyclone tracking algorithm, we develop a novel method to overcome challenges identifying all types of polynyas satisfying spatiotemporal criteria and tracing their daily evolution, extracting from an extensive amount of sea ice concentration data. Based on it, we establish a dataset called "Daily Edge of Each Polynya in Antarctica" (DEEP-AA). Validation against remote sensing and ship-based observations confirms DEEP-AA's reliability. Compared to existing maps, the DEEP-AA identifies a threefold number of polynyas and reveals the seasonal area recovery of infrequent polynyas is earlier than frequent ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is of vital importance given the coastal and societal implications of ice loss, with a potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if it melts entirely. However, future ice-sheet trajectories remain highly uncertain. One of the main sources of uncertainty is related to nonlinear processes and feedbacks between the ice sheet and the Earth System on different timescales. Due to these feedbacks and ice-sheet inertia, ice loss may already be triggered in the next decades or centuries and will then unfold thereafter on timescales on the order of multiple centuries to millennia. This committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is not reflected in typical sea-level projections based on mass balance changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which often cover decadal-to-centennial timescales. Here, using two ice-sheet models, we systematically assess the long-term multi-millennial sea-level commitment from Antarctica in response to warming projected over the next centuries under low- and high-emission pathways. This allows us to bring together the time horizon of stakeholder planning and the much longer response times of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results show that warming levels representative of the lower-emission pathway, SSP1-2.6, may already result in an Antarctic mass loss of up to 6 m of sea-level equivalent on multi-millennial timescales. This committed mass loss is due to a strong grounding-line retreat in the West Antarctic Amundsen Sea embayment as well as potential drainage from the Ross Ice Shelf catchment and onset of ice loss from Wilkes subglacial basin in East Antarctica. Beyond the warming levels reached by the end of this century under the higher-emission trajectory, SSP5-8.5, a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is triggered in the entire ensemble of simulations from both ice-sheet models. Under enhanced warming, next to ice loss from the marine subglacial basins, we also find a substantial decline in ice volume grounded above sea level in East Antarctica. Over the next millennia, this gives rise to a sea-level increase of up to 40 m in our simulations, stressing the importance of including the committed Antarctic sea-level contribution in future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising global sea levels are one of many impacts associated with current anthropogenic global warming. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has the potential to contribute several meters of sea level rise over the next few centuries. To predict future sea level rise contributions from ice sheets, both global and regional climate model (RCM) outputs are used as forcing in ice sheet model simulations. While the impact of different global models on future projections is well-studied, the effect of different regional models on the evolution of the AIS is mostly unknown. In our study, we present the impact of the choice of present-day reference RCM forcing on the evolution of the AIS. We used the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to study the AIS in a quasi-equilibrium state and under future projections, combining present-day RCM output with global climate model projections. Our study suggests differences in projected Antarctic sea level contributions due to the choice of different present-day surface mass balance (SMB) and temperature baseline forcings of 10.6 mm in the year 2100 and 70.0 mm in 2300 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Those uncertainties are an order of magnitude smaller than what is estimated from uncertainties related to ice sheet and climate models. However, we observe an increase in RCM-induced uncertainties over time and for higher-emission scenarios. Additionally, our study shows that the complex relationship between the selected RCM baseline climatology and its impact on future sea level rise is closely related to the stability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), particularly the dynamic response of Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. On millennial timescale, the choice of the RCM reference leads to ice volume differences up to 2.3 m and can result in the long-term collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has experienced accelerated loss of ice over the last decades and could become the main contributor to sea level rise in the coming centuries. However, the associated uncertainty is very large. The main sources of this uncertainty lie in the future scenarios, the climatic forcing and, most notably, the structural uncertainty due to our lack of understanding of ice–ocean interaction processes, in particular, the representation of subshelf basal melt. In this study, we use a higher-order ice sheet model to investigate the impact of these three sources of uncertainty on the contribution of the AIS to sea level in the coming centuries in the context of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) but extending the projections to 2500. We test the sensitivity of the model to basal melting parameters using several forcings and scenarios simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Results show a strong dependency on the values of the parameter that controls the heat exchange velocity between ice and ocean as well as the forcing and scenario. Higher values of the heat exchange parameter lead to higher sea level rise, with the contribution depending on the forcing–scenario configuration and reaching in some cases more than 3 m in sea level equivalent by the end of 2500. Idealized simulations considering the individual effects of the atmospheric and the oceanic forcing have been performed, demonstrating that the oceanic forcing plays a dominant role over the western sector of the AIS, while the atmospheric forcing is more important for the eastern sector and the interior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of the ice sheets on glacial timescales are highly controlled by interactions with the solid Earth, i.e., the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Particularly at marine ice sheets, competing feedback mechanisms govern the migration of the ice sheet's grounding line (GL) and hence the ice sheet stability. For this study, we developed a coupling scheme and performed a suite of coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations over the last two glacial cycles. To represent ice sheet dynamics we apply the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), and to represent the solid Earth response we apply the 3D VIscoelastic Lithosphere and MAntle model (VILMA), which, in addition to load deformation and rotation changes, considers the gravitationally consistent redistribution of water (the sea-level equation). We decided on an offline coupling between the two model components. By convergence of trajectories of the Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation we determine optimal coupling time step and spatial resolution of the GIA model and compare patterns of inferred relative sea-level change since the Last Glacial Maximum with the results from previous studies. With our coupling setup we evaluate the relevance of feedback mechanisms for the glaciation and deglaciation phases in Antarctica considering different 3D Earth structures resulting in a range of load-response timescales. For rather long timescales, in a glacial climate associated with the far-field sea-level low stand, we find GL advance up to the edge of the continental shelf mainly in West Antarctica, dominated by a self-amplifying GIA feedback, which we call the "forebulge feedback". For the much shorter timescale of deglaciation, dominated by the marine ice sheet instability, our simulations suggest that the stabilizing sea-level feedback can significantly slow down GL retreat in the Ross sector, which is dominated by a very weak Earth structure (i.e., low mantle viscosity and thin lithosphere). This delaying effect prevents a Holocene GL retreat beyond its present-day position, which is discussed in the scientific community and supported by observational evidence at the Siple Coast and by previous model simulations. The applied coupled framework, PISM–VILMA, allows for defining restart states to run multiple sensitivity simulations from. It can be easily implemented in Earth system models (ESMs) and provides the tools to gain a better understanding of ice sheet stability on glacial timescales as well as in a warmer future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice rises or ice rumples act as ice-shelf pinning points that can play an important role in regulating the ice discharge of marine outlet glaciers. As an example, the observed recent gradual ungrounding of the ice shelf of West Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier from its last pinning points likely diminished the buttressing effect of the ice shelf and thus contributed to the destabilization of the outlet. Here we use an idealized experimental setting to simulate the response of a marine outlet glacier resting on a landward down-sloping (retrograde) bed to a stepwise ungrounding of its ice shelf from a topographic high and a subsequent re-grounding. We show that the glacier retreat down the retrograde bed, induced by the loss in pinning-point buttressing, can be unstable and irreversible given a relatively deep subglacial bed depression. In this case, glacier retreat and re-advance show a hysteretic behavior, and if the bed depression is sufficiently deep, the glacier does not recover but remains locked in its retreated state. Conversely, reversibility requires a sufficiently shallow bed depression. Based on a simple flux balance analysis, we argue that the combination of a deep bed depression and limited ice-shelf buttressing hampers grounding-line re-advance due to the dominant and highly non-linear influence of the bed depth on the ice discharge across the grounding line. We conclude that outlets that rest on a deep bed depression and are weakly buttressed, such as Thwaites Glacier, are more susceptible to abrupt and irreversible retreat than more strongly buttressed glaciers on more moderate retrograde slopes, such as Pine Island Glacier. Our findings further suggest that the (ir)reversibility of large-scale grounding-line retreat may be strongly affected by calving-front migration and associated changes in ice-shelf buttressing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tipping elements, including the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), are Earth system components that could reach critical thresholds due to anthropogenic emissions. Increasing our understanding of past warm climates can help to elucidate the future contribution of the AIS to emissions. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3.0 million years ago) serves as an ideal benchmark experiment. During this period, CO2 levels were similar to the present day (PD; 350–450 ppmv), but global mean temperatures were 2.5–4.0 K higher. Sea level reconstructions from that time indicate a rise of 5–25 m compared to the present, highlighting the potential crossing of tipping points in Antarctica. In order to achieve a sea level contribution far beyond 10 m , not only the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) needs to largely decrease, but a significant response in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is also required. A key question in reconstructions and simulations is therefore which of the AIS basins retreated during the mPWP. In this study, we investigate how the AIS responds to climatic and bedrock conditions during the mPWP. To this end, we use the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), general circulation model ensemble to force a higher-order ice sheet model. Our simulations reveal that the WAIS experiences collapse with a 0.5 K oceanic warming. The Wilkes Basin shows retreat at 3 K oceanic warming, although higher precipitation rates could mitigate such a retreat. Totten Glacier shows slight signs of retreats only under high-oceanic warming conditions (greater than 4 K oceanic anomaly). If only the WAIS collapses, we simulate a mean contribution of 2.7 to 7.0 ms.l.e. (metres of sea level equivalent). If, in addition, the Wilkes Basin retreats, our simulations suggest a mean contribution of 6.0 to 8.9 ms.l.e. Besides uncertainties related to the climate forcing, we also examine other sources of uncertainty related to initial ice thickness and ice dynamics. We find that the climatologies yield a higher uncertainty than the dynamical configuration if parameters are constrained with PD observations and that starting from Pliocene reconstructions leads to smaller ice sheet configurations due to the hysteresis behaviour of marine bedrocks. Ultimately, our study concludes that marine ice cliff instability is not a prerequisite for the retreat of the Wilkes Basin. Instead, a significant rise in oceanic temperatures can initiate such a retreat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice‐flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high‐emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea‐level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea‐level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice‐shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea‐level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea‐level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi‐century projections. Plain Language Summary: Numerical models simulating the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet have mostly focused on the twenty‐first century. How the ice sheet will evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain, as several instability mechanisms could develop and destabilize vast regions of Antarctica. We investigate here the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet until 2300 using an ensemble of 16 different ice flow models. The results show that the Antarctic contribution to sea‐level rise remains limited until 2100 but increases rapidly afterward. The ice retreats in most basins of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and some numerical experiments suggest a near‐complete collapse of this region by 2300. The time when these glaciers start retreating varies depending on the choice of ice flow model, but the speed at which they retreat is consistent among the models once the retreat begins. On a multi‐century timescale, the choice of ice sheet model remains a leading source of uncertainties. Key Points: Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss and associated uncertainty increase sharply after 2100Ice streams feeding the Ross and Ronne ice shelves experience considerable and consistent grounding line retreat for all ice sheet modelsOn multi‐centennial timescales, uncertainty in mass loss remains dominated by the choice of ice flow model, followed by the climate forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical modeling of ice sheet dynamics is a critical tool for projecting future sea level rise. Among all the processes responsible for the loss of mass of the ice sheets, enhanced ice discharge triggered by the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers is one of the key drivers. Numerical models of ice sheet flow are therefore required to include ice front migration in order to reproduce today's mass loss and to be able to predict their future. However, the discontinuous nature of calving poses a significant numerical challenge for accurately capturing the motion of the ice front. In this study, we explore different stabilization techniques combined with varying reinitialization strategies to enhance the numerical stability and accuracy of solving the level-set function, which tracks the position of the ice front. Through rigorous testing on an idealized domain with a semicircular and a straight-line ice front, including scenarios with diverse front velocities, we assess the performance of these techniques. The findings contribute to advancing our ability to model ice sheet dynamics, specifically calving processes, and provide valuable insights into the most effective strategies for simulating and tracking the motion of the ice front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]