Search

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5∘C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥1.7∘C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

With the increasing frequency of floods, in-depth flood event analyses are essential for effective disaster relief and prevention. Satellite-based flood event datasets have become the primary data source for flood event analyses instead of limited disaster maps due to their enhanced availability. Nevertheless, despite the vast amount of available remote sensing images, existing flood event datasets continue to pose significant challenges in flood event analyses due to the uneven geographical distribution of data, the scarcity of time series data, and the limited availability of flood-related semantic information. There has been a surge in acceptance of deep learning models for flood event analyses, but some existing flood datasets do not align well with model training, and distinguishing flooded areas has proven difficult with limited data modalities and semantic information. Moreover, efficient retrieval and pre-screening of flood-related imagery from vast satellite data impose notable obstacles, particularly within large-scale analyses. To address these issues, we propose a Multimodal Flood Event Dataset (MFED) for deep-learning-based flood event analyses and data retrieval. It consists of 18 years of multi-source remote sensing imagery and heterogeneous textual information covering flood-prone areas worldwide. Incorporating optical and radar imagery can exploit the correlation and complementarity between distinct image modalities to capture the pixel features in flood imagery. It is worth noting that text modality data, including auxiliary hydrological information extracted from the Global Flood Database and text information refined from online news records, can also offer a semantic supplement to the images for flood event retrieval and analysis. To verify the applicability of the MFED in deep learning models, we carried out experiments with different models using a single modality and different combinations of modalities, which fully verified the effectiveness of the dataset. Furthermore, we also verify the efficiency of the MFED in comparative experiments with existing multimodal datasets and diverse neural network structures.

Abstract Predicting flood event classes aids in the comprehensive investigation of flood behavior dynamics and supports flood early warning and emergency plan development. Existing studies have mainly focused on historical flood event classification and the prediction of flood hydrographs or certain metrics (e.g., magnitude and timing) but have not focused on predicting flood event classes. Our study proposes a new approach for predicting flood event classes based on the class membership functions of flood regime metrics and hydrological modeling. The approach is validated using 1446 unimpacted flood events in 68 headstream catchments widely distributed across China. The new approach performs well, with class hit rates of 68.3% ± 0.4% for all events; 65.8% ± 0.6%, 56.8% ± 0.9%, and 69.5% ± 0.9% for the small, moderate and high spike flood event classes, respectively; and 82.5% ± 1.2% and 75.4% ± 1.1% for the moderate and high dumpy flood event classes, respectively. Furthermore, it performs better in the basins of northern China than in those of southern China, particularly for the small spike flood event class in the Songliao and Yellow River Basins, with hit rates of 80.0% ± 3.2% and 78.8% ± 3.2%, respectively. Our results indicate that the new approach will help improve the prediction performance of flood events and their corresponding classes, and provide deep insights into the comprehensive dynamic patterns of flood events for early warning and control management.

The adoption of accessible Digital Twin technology in flood applications has been impeded by a notable lack of practical examples. Arguably, the most distinguishing feature of Digital Twin technology is the integration of near real-time data analytics through IoT sensor connectivity, which has remained underutilised in flood applications and therefore indicates a critical research gap. This project endeavoured to develop a comprehensive and replicable open-source architecture framework, specifically tailored for near real-time responsive flood event representation. The resultant interactive web application integrated near real-time river height and rain fall data streams and performed on-demand data analytics. Key results include the establishment of a back-end spatial database, a coupled physical city and digital space model, and a functional holistic front-end user interface. Additionally, this research aligned with the Gemini Principles by emphasising data interoperability and maintaining an information feedback loop. The study also aimed to configure near real-time IoT sensor connections, implement event triggers, and deliver interactive visualisations in an easily accessible format. The research addressed key questions surrounding the effective integration of IoT sensor data, identification of crucial flood indicators and parameters, and rapid quantification of flood event impacts. Ultimately, this research project demonstrates how Digital Twin technology can swiftly provide decision-makers with crucial insights during flood disaster events.

The devastating floods that swept through the Ahr valley in July 2021 left indelible marks on the region's landscape and communities. Beyond the visible damage, experience from other events suggests an increase in mental health issues among those affected. However, there is a lack of data and understanding regarding the impact of flooding on mental health in Germany. Therefore, this study aims to determine how much the flooding in 2021 affected the population's mental wellbeing. For this purpose, a household-level survey (n=516) was conducted in the district of Ahrweiler, Rhineland-Palatinate – Germany's most-affected region – 1 year after the flood event, specifically in June and July 2022. The survey employed a short epidemiological screening scale to assess the prevalence of individuals showing indications of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using binary logistic regression analyses, we identify risk and protective factors that may have played a role in the development of PTSD to find intervention points for supporting those affected. Our findings indicate significant mental health issues 1 year after the flood event, with 28.2 % of respondents showing indications of PTSD. Furthermore, this study has uncovered essential risk factors for developing indications of PTSD after flooding: female gender, being seriously injured or becoming sick during the event, and feeling left alone to cope with flood impacts. The study emphasizes that severe flooding, such as the 2021 flood, results in new health-related needs that demand attention. As a result, care methods should be adapted to tackle the prevalence and risk factors connected with PTSD in the affected population, e.g., by providing targeted aftercare for individuals who were injured or became sick during the flood event.

The lack of data on flood events poses challenges in flood management. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to enhance flood-forecasting models by utilizing the capabilities of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate synthetic flood events. We modified a time-series GAN by incorporating constraints related to mass conservation, energy balance, and hydraulic principles into the GAN model through appropriate regularization terms in the loss function and by using mass conservative LSTM in the generator and discriminator models. In this way, we can improve the realism and physical consistency of the generated extreme flood-event data. These constraints ensure that the synthetic flood-event data generated by the GAN adhere to fundamental hydrological principles and characteristics, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of flood-forecasting and risk-assessment applications. PCA and t-SNE are applied to provide valuable insights into the structure and distribution of the synthetic flood data, highlighting patterns, clusters, and relationships within the data. We aimed to use the generated synthetic data to supplement the original data and train probabilistic neural runoff model for forecasting multi-step ahead flood events. t-statistic was performed to compare the means of synthetic data generated by TimeGAN with the original data, and the results showed that the means of the two datasets were statistically significant at 95% level. The integration of time-series GAN-generated synthetic flood events with real data improved the robustness and accuracy of the autoencoder model, enabling more reliable predictions of extreme flood events. In the pilot study, the model trained on the augmented dataset with synthetic data from time-series GAN shows higher NSE and KGE scores of NSE = 0.838 and KGE = 0.908, compared to the NSE = 0.829 and KGE = 0.90 of the sixth hour ahead, indicating improved accuracy of 9.8% NSE in multistep-ahead predictions of extreme flood events compared to the model trained on the original data alone. The integration of synthetic training datasets in the probabilistic forecasting improves the model’s ability to achieve a reduced Prediction Interval Normalized Average Width (PINAW) for interval forecasting, yet this enhancement comes with a trade-off in the Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP).

Flash floods pose a distinct challenge compared to traditional fluvial flooding, with infrastructure-based solutions proving less effective. Effective responses hinge on advanced early warning systems providing actionable information, emphasising the necessity for computational flood forecasting models. However, hydrodynamic models, renowned for accuracy and completeness, face limitations due to computational intensity. This study explores two 2D flood forecasting models, RIM2D and SERGHEI, both with GPU implementations which allow us to maximise the forecast lead time. While RIM2D is less computationally intensive, suitable for operational use, SERGHEI, with higher computational costs, targets large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. The assessment of applicability and trade-offs is carried out on the 2021 Eifel flood event, particularly in the lower Ahr valley. A set of simulations were performed at various resolutions from 1 to 10 m, which reveal similar accuracy among both models at coarser resolutions, yet discrepancies arise at finer resolutions due to the distinct formulations. Both models exhibit a rapid computational cost escalation, but at resolutions equal to or coarser than 5 m, forecasts are remarkably faster than the real-time ideal for operational use, paving the way for their use in early warning systems. However, higher resolutions necessitate multi-GPU and HPC capabilities, underlining the importance of embracing such technology in addressing broader flood domains.

The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California-focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time-series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state-wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time-series shape, than forecast lead time, 2-to-4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, demographic dynamics, economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. The attribution of those drivers through the use of counterfactual scenarios of hazard, exposure or vulnerability first requires a good representation of historical events, including their location, their intensity and the factual circumstances in which they occurred. Here, we develop a chain of models that is capable of recreating riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe between 1950 and 2020 that had a potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts. This factual catalogue of almost 15 000 such events was scrutinized with historical records of flood impacts. We found that at least 10 % of them led to significant socioeconomic impacts (including fatalities) according to available sources. The model chain was able to capture events responsible for 96 % of known impacts contained in the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) flood impact database in terms of persons affected and economic losses and for 81 % of fatalities. The dataset enables the study of the drivers of vulnerability and flood adaptation due to a large sample of events with historical impact data. The model chain can be further used to generate counterfactual events, especially those related to climate change and human influence on catchments.

Accurate flood event simulation and prediction, enabled by effective models and reliable data, are critical for mitigating the potential risk of flood disaster. This study aims to investigate the impacts of spatiotemporal resolutions of precipitation on flood event simulation in a large-scale catchment of China. We use high-spatiotemporal-resolution Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) products and a gauge-based product as precipitation forcing for hydrologic simulation. Three hydrological models (HBV, SWAT and DHSVM) and a data-driven model (long short-term memory (LSTM) network) are utilized for flood event simulation. Two calibration strategies are carried out, one of which targets matching of the flood events, with peak discharge exceeding 8600 m3 s−1 between January 2015 and December 2017, and the other one is the conventional strategy for matching the entire streamflow time series. The results indicate that the event-based calibration strategy improves the performance of flood event simulation compared with a conventional calibration strategy, except for DHSVM. Both hydrological models and LSTM yield better flood event simulation at a finer temporal resolution, especially in flood peak simulation. Furthermore, SWAT and DHSVM are less sensitive to the spatial resolutions of IMERG, while the performance of LSTM obtains improvement when degrading the spatial resolution of IMERG-L. Generally, LSTM outperforms the hydrological models in most flood events, which implies the usefulness of the deep learning algorithms for flood event simulation.

This study uses a reduced-order two-dimensional (2-D) horizontal model to investigate the influence of the riverbank slope on the sinuosity-driven hyporheic exchange process along sloping alluvial riverbanks during a transient flood event. The deformed geometry method (DGM) is applied to quantify the displacement of the sediment–water interface (SWI) along the sloping riverbank during river stage fluctuation. This new modeling approach serves as the initial step focusing on the impact of the bank slope on the hyporheic exchange flux (HEF) and the residence time distribution (RTD) of pore water in the fluvial aquifer for a sinuosity-driven river corridor. Several controlling factors, including sinuosity, alluvial valley slope, river flow advective forcing and duration of flow, are incorporated into the model to investigate the effects of bank slope on aquifers of variable hydraulic transmissivity. Compared to simulations of a vertical riverbank, sloping riverbanks were found to increase the HEF. For sloping riverbanks, the hyporheic zone (HZ) encompasses a larger area and penetrated deeper into the alluvial aquifer, especially in aquifers with smaller transmissivity (i.e., due to increased hydraulic conductivity or reduced specific yield). Furthermore, consideration of sloping banks as compared to a vertical riverbank can lead to both underestimation and overestimation of the pore water travel time. The impact of bank slope on residence time was more pronounced during a flood event for high-transmissivity aquifer conditions, while it had a long-lasting influence after the flood event in lower-transmissivity aquifers. Consequently, the impact of bank slope decreases the travel time of water discharging into the river relative to base flow conditions. These findings highlight the need for (re)consideration of the importance of complex riverbank morphology conceptualization in numerical models when accounting for the HEF and RTD. The results have potential implications for river management and restoration and the management of river and groundwater pollution.

Abstract In July 2021, a cut‐off low‐pressure system brought extreme precipitation to Western Europe. Record daily rainfall totals led to flooding that caused loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. Climate change can amplify rainfall extremes via thermodynamic processes, but the role of dynamical changes is uncertain. We assess how the dynamics involved in this particular event are changing using flow analogues. Using past and present periods in reanalyses and large ensemble climate model data of the present‐day climate and 2°C warmer climate, we find that the best flow analogues become more similar to the cut‐off low‐pressure system observed over Western Europe in 2021. This may imply that extreme rain events will occur more frequently in the future. Moreover, the magnitude of the analogue lows has deepened, and the associated air masses contain more precipitable water. Simulations of future climate show similar events of the future could lead to intense rainfall further east than in the current climate, due to a shift of the pattern. Such unprecedented events can have large consequences for society, we need to mitigate and adapt to reduce future impacts.

Abstract Coastal flooding is a growing hazard. Compound event characterization and uncertainty quantification are critical to accurate flood risk assessment. This study presents univariate, conditional, and joint probabilities for observed water levels, precipitation, and waves. Design events for 10‐ and 100‐year marine water level and precipitation events are developed. A total water level formulation explicitly accounting for wave impacts is presented. Uncertainties associated with sampling method, copula selection, data record length, and utilized rainfall gauge are determined. Eight copulas are used to quantify multivariate uncertainty. Generally, copulas present similar results, except the BB5. Sampling method uncertainty was quantified using four sampling types; annual maximum, annual coinciding, wet season monthly maximum, and wet season monthly coinciding sampling. Annual coinciding sampling typically produced the lowest event magnitude estimates. Uncertainty associated with record length was explored by partitioning a 100‐year record into various subsets. Withholding 30 years of observations (i.e., records of less than 70 years) resulted in substantial variability of both the 10‐ and 100‐year return period estimates. Approximately equidistant rainfall gauges led to large event estimate differences, suggesting microclimatology and gauge selection play a key role in characterizing compound events. Generally, event estimate uncertainty was dominated by sampling method and rainfall gauge selection.

Floods are among the most common natural disasters responsible for severe damages and human losses. Numerically produced data, managed by user-friendly tools for geographically referenced data, have been adopted to increase preparedness and reduce vulnerabilities. This paper describes the locally sensed and numerically produced data that characterize a flood event that occurred in February 2016 in the Portuguese Águeda River, referred to as Agueda.2016Flood for short. The data were managed through the RiverCure portal, a collaborative web platform connected to a validated shallow-water model featuring modelled dynamic bed geometries and sediment transport. The dataset provides a synthesis of topo-bathymetric, hydrometric and numerically produced data from a calibrated hydrodynamic model. Due to the lack of measured hydrometric data near the city, the numerically produced data are crucial for a complete description of the flood event. The Agueda.2016Flood dataset constitutes a complete validation test for flood forecasting models and a tool to better mitigate floods in this river and in similar rivers. Thus, Agueda.2016Flood is a relevant dataset for Águeda River stakeholders as well as for the community of flood modellers, as it provides a well-documented validation event for forecasting tools. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.937927473a3a4e66a07a2e2fdd9d581e (Ricardo et al., 2024).

It is reported that the magnitudes of flood events in riverine systems have been increasing due to global climate change. Because flood events could displace fish species downstream and/or increase the mortality of fish, it is important to know how the increased floods can affect fish in river networks. In this study, we focused a hatchery-raised amphidromous fish, Ayu Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in a mainstem-tributary network in Japan and examined the relative fish abundance changes before and after the recordable massive flood using the environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis. We also examined the spatiotemporal patterns of the Ayu eDNA concentrations and the relationships with tributary discharge, width, and depth to examine if the relative abundance changes could be related to tributary size. Our results indicated that Ayu tended to inhabit large, deep tributaries more than small, shallow tributaries even after the flood event. Further, the eDNA concentrations of Ayu have decreased in most study sites after the flood; however, the eDNA concentrations in certain tributaries with lower tributary size have increased during the study period. These results suggest that (1) the habitat conditions could be important for the maintenance of Ayu populations before and after flood events, (2) increase in flood magnitude along climate changes could have impacts on Ayu populations, and (3) not only large tributary, but also small tributaries could be important habitats for the target species to avoid flood disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatio-temporal variation of suspended sediment load is a topic of real interest in river geomorphology, especially in the current context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic impacts. In the present study, an attempt was made to argue for these variations based on the correlations between the event efficiency index and the degree of sediment availability in river channel following flood events. Data from four gauging stations along the Trotuș River (Romania) were used to show these types of relationships. The results show that the spatial variations of the event efficiency index are in close correlation with the characteristics of the riverbed in the sectors analysed, and the temporal variations reflect the role of flood events in the modification of river channel and the availability of sediment. Major flood events have caused visible changes in the suspended sediment flux, which is why the analysis of the spatial and temporal variations must necessarily take into account the characteristics of the river channel in terms of sediment sources.