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On May 5, 2021, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) identified the first five COVID-19 cases caused by the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant in Mesa County in western Colorado (population 154,933

Managers were invited to attend the two-day "Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario" workshop and to participate in discussion and panel sessions. This paper provides a management perspective on the technical presentations presented at the workshop, identifying information of particular interest to Everglades restoration decision-making. In addition, the paper highlights the points related to science and decision-making that emerged from the discussion sessions and provides thoughts for future discussion in a follow-up forum. Particular focus is dedicated to the importance of and challenges associated with integrating science and decision-making. In addition, the paper offers a management perspective on the uncertainties of climate science and the implications they have for influencing Everglades restoration decision-making. The authors propose that on the one hand, even given uncertainties associated with predicting the ecological response to climate change, there remains a scientific consensus that Everglades restoration is generally on the right track. On the other hand, uncertainty can be a significant barrier to climate science influencing the implementation of restoration and adaptive management programs.

Formal methods tools, whose underlying principles are based on mathematics and formal logic, are considered one of the most effective and rigorous means of verifying system properties and assuring the absence of undesirable system behavior. The use of such tools seem to squarely fit the needs of those aiming to develop and certify avionic software as per the DO-178C standard, the set of objectives laid out by FAA to achieve a high level of confidence on the systems. However, our recent work on a NASA-funded research project revealed that there are practical considerations and additional complexities involved in using formal method tools to provide the level of assurance as exemplified by the DO-178C. In this paper we discuss one of the key concerns with formal tools: its soundness — the characteristic of a tool to never permit the verified system property be declared true when it is actually not true. We explored two major classes of formal methods tools — namely model checkers and static analyzers — and observed several threats to their soundness such as tool fallacies and failure modes that could lead to misplaced confidence in the verified system. We present various strategies to mitigate them, including an assurance case framework to verify that potential risks are all mitigated. The intent of this paper is not to discourage but encourage scrupulous use of formal tools to certify critical avionic software by being wary of the subtle but serious issues that may be overlooked.

This document reports on a two-year research project by Kestrel Technology and Honeywell Aerospace Advanced Technology to combine model-based development of complex avionics control software with static analysis of the generated code to achieve assurance levels not available from either technique practiced separately. We concentrated on two classes of numerical algorithms, linear digital filters and integrating accumulators, modifying existing versions of Honeywells HiLiTE model-based development system and Kestrels CodeHawk abstract interpretation system to share domain specific information about implementations of these algorithms. This allowed CodeHawk to exploit model-level specifications and theoretical input bounds from HiLiTE concerning the generated C code, producing a much more precise over-approximation of the output bounds and accumulated floating-point error bounds than would be possible with generic abstract interpretation techniques. These static analysis results were then fed back into HiLiTE to be further exploited in the formal verification of the generated code.

In our first white paper, “The Knowledge Effect: Excess Returns of Highly Innovative Companies,” we identified a market anomaly that leads to persistent excess returns among highly innovative companies. We offered two explanations why companies that share a common risk factor — the Knowledge Factor — historically generate excess returns. First, the introduction of the semiconductor has enabled humankind to multiply its intellectual strength in a similar way that the steam engine and electric motor enabled humankind to multiply its physical strength. Corporate knowledge production takes the form of investment in research and development (R&D), advertising and employee training. Corporations spend more on knowledge than they do on property, plant and equipment. The second important root for the Knowledge Effect is the dearth of information about corporate knowledge activities that has been amplified by the poorly timed implementation of conservative accounting practices at the start of the greatest period of knowledge production in human history. This information deficiency has led investors to make a systematic error in the way they assess the prospects of companies that invest significantly in knowledge. Ultimately, this systematic error is reflected in a persistent risk premium, or excess return, for companies that invest significantly in knowledge.In this second paper, we describe our process of creating the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes. These indexes are designed to capture companies that share a common risk factor: knowledge intensity. We begin with a history and discussion of index construction schemes. Next we review how and why we created our own Gavekal Capital International (GKCI) Indexes to serve as the selection universe for the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes, comparing and contrasting our methodology with Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index model. From there, we discuss how we adjust company financial statements for knowledge investments and outline the rules we use to identify the companies in our flagship Gavekal Knowledge Leader Indexes. We follow with a detailed review of the performance and risk history of each index, comparing and contrasting with the MSCI Indexes. We conclude with a factor based decomposition of the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes which quantifies the alpha specifically attributable to the Knowledge Factor.

In this paper, we identify the Knowledge Effect, the tendency of stocks of highly innovative companies to experience excess returns. It results from investors’ systematic errors in evaluating companies that invest large sums of money in producing knowledge. The origins of the Knowledge Effect can be traced to two factors: 1. A surge in the pace of knowledge production catalyzed by the release of the first commercially available semiconductor in 1971. Due to the cumulative nature of knowledge, this acceleration has resulted in an exponential increase in humankind’s total knowledge. 2. A mandate by the US Financial Accounting Standards Board in 1974 which ruled that companies must expense knowledge investments in the period incurred. This deprived investors of relevant financial information on corporate knowledge spending at the dawn of this massive surge in the pace of knowledge production.The Knowledge Effect is grounded in academic literature. It was first discovered in a series of studies in the 1990s where NYU’s Baruch Lev analyzed 20 years of financial data and discovered an association between a firm’s level of knowledge capital and its subsequent stock performance. Further research advanced the findings, and in 2005, Lev proved the existence of a market inefficiency attributable to missing information about corporate knowledge investments. This phenomenon leads highly innovative companies to deliver persistent abnormal returns.Gavekal Capital captures the Knowledge Effect using a proprietary process designed to overcome the informational shortcomings of traditional financial statements. Our methodology capitalizes corporate knowledge investments, measures firm performance on a knowledge-adjusted basis, and selects investments on the basis of knowledge intensity.

There is a new battlefront in the money management business. New smart beta ETFs are entering the market to compete against actively managed mutual funds. These funds will be formidable competition, offering the possibility of superior performance -- traditionally the province only of actively managed funds -- lower expense ratios and other advantages. As with every disruptive innovation we have studied, we predict investors will be the ultimate winners. Download our new white paper to learn: Why index-based investing is a new form of active management; How to use active share to evaluate funds; How our smart beta indexes historically outperform actively managed mutual funds; Why ETFs can offer superior tax efficiency over mutual funds; How to substitute mutual funds with smart beta ETFs and how it can improve after-fee performance.

A patient was seen on the palliative care service at our institution who developed serotonin syndrome and mutism associated with methadone use. Serotonin syndrome is often described as a clinical triad of mental status changes, autonomic hyperactivity, and neuromuscular abnormalities, but not all of these findings are consistently present in all patients with the disorder. The incidence of the serotonin syndrome is thought to mirror the increasing number of proserotonergic agents being used in clinical practice. In 2002, the Toxic Exposure Surveillance System, which receives case descriptions from office-based practices, inpatient settings, and emergency departments, reported 26,733 incidences of exposure to selective serotonin-reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) that caused significant toxic effects in 7349 persons and resulted in 93 deaths. Serotonin syndrome is not an idiopathic drug reaction; it is a predictable consequence of excess serotonergic agonism of central nervous system (CNS) receptors and peripheral serotonergic receptors. The myriad of symptoms with which serotonin syndrome may present is compounded by the fact that more than 85% of physicians are unaware of serotonin syndrome as a clinical diagnosis. Other SSRIs such as fluoxetine and fluvoxamine have been shown to increase methadone plasma concentrations in dependent patients. Although the exact mechanism is unknown, there are several pathways via which a significant interaction could occur. This would include the effects methadone has on N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) in addition to the impact of methadone on the cytochrome P450 enzyme system. The mainstay of treatment of serotonin syndrome is withdrawal of the offending agent and supportive care. These actions resulted in resolution of our patient's symptoms. Serotonin syndrome is becoming more common, and with the utilization of polypharmacy on many palliative care services should be considered as unifying differential diagnosis in the appropriate setting.

Static analyzers can be used at compile time to automatically discover locations in programs that are vulnerable to malicious exploits. It is difficult, however, to compare the results of one analyzer to another, or to assess the coverage of any one analyzer against the actual number of vulnerabilities present in a program, because there is no analyzer-independent metric of vulnerabilities for software. We are currently using our CodeHawk abstract interpretation technology to produce such a formal metric for 6 C programs from NIST's SATE competition. A single mathematical definition of undefined memory access according to the C semantics covers 27 of the MITRE Common Weakness Enumeration categories, and allows us to identify a set of program locations where proof obligations guaranteeing memory-safety cannot be discharged. These locations comprise a canonical enumeration of the weaknesses against which to measure static analyzers, including true positives (correctly identified locations), false positives (identified locations that can be proved safe), and false negatives (unsafe locations not identified).

Sera from hogs were analyzed using the modified direct agglutination test (MAT). Serum samples were collected from sows which were part of the National Animal Health Monitoring System (NAHMS) swine survey. The blood sera on file represented 394 randomly selected hog farms throughout the United States. Additionally, the NAHMS survey included information on type of production facilities and level of cat, dog, or bird access to the facilities. Of the sows tested 19 percent tested positive for toxoplasmosis. This study showed a positive relationship between sows or herds testing positive for Toxoplasma gondii and three factors: 1) method of rodent control, 2) type of production facility, and 3) access of certain animals (cats, dogs, birds) to production facilities. These data indicate that it will be difficult to eliminate T. gondii from swine herds which allow cat or dog access to facilities. Use of cats as a method of rodent control should be discouraged. We found a strong association between use of "bait only" for rodent control and the herd testing negative as compared to the use of "cats only" for rodent control. Greater industry awareness is needed for methods of rodent control through the use of baits. Sows in herds where female replacements were raised internally were significantly more likely to test positive for toxoplasmosis. Sows in confinement facilities had a significantly lower prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii. Herds testing positive were significantly smaller than those which were negative. In general, there were not any regional differences in prevalence rates. Sows testing positive did not have a reduced level of productivity.

Target values for the power consumption of electrical equipment have been laid down in Switzerland in collaboration with the industry as a new type of energy policy instrument. As a general rule, 95% of the equipment sold is required to comply with these target values by the set deadlines, otherwise the government is authorised to issue admission restrictions. An evaluation of these measures has indicated that manufacturers and importers displayed a motivated and constructive approach during these negotiations and have set out to meet the consumption values. Although the targeted sales figures for efficient appliances have not yet been reached in any of the equipment categories, it can be stated that a step has certainly been taken in the right direction. In combination with the effects of the “Energy 2000 Label”, the stipulation of consumption target values can already be described as a successful move, especially in the fields of office and electronic entertainment equipment.

Menorrhagia is a common problem among women. The cause of which, in some individuals, has been attributed to von Willebrand’s disease. The assessment of this condition has been hampered by the lack of easily available and consistent laboratory assessment of levels of this factor that correlate with the patient’s clinical presentation. Therefore we initiated a study to correlate the patient’s self assessment of their menorrhagia with their levels of von Willebrand’s factor (VWF) and platelet function. A peripheral blood assessment chart (PBAC) was utilized for patient self-assessment of blood loss during their menstrual cycle. The PBAC is a validated, well-established method which utilized a point system that quantifies the number and extent of soiling of tampons and pads used during a patient’s menstrual cycle. The PFA-100 has been used as an adjunct for lab assessment of platelet function. This is a high shear-inducing device which simulates primary hemostasis after injury to small vessel. This apparatus consists of a reservoir for whole blood and a small capillary surmounted by a collagen-coated membrane with a central aperture. Platelet agonist which is either epinephrine or ADP is present on the membrane. Closure time is reported as a variable which inversely corresponds with von Willebrand factor levels (or platelet function). Clinical correlation with its results are needed. In addition, blood samples were analyzed for Von Willebrand’s factor antigen (VWFA) and Ristocetin co-factor activity (RCOA) using a CLIA approved laboratory. We explored the relationship between PBAC, PFA-100 and VWFA and RCOA levels. Twenty-six patients were enrolled after obtaining an institutional board approved informed consent. Pearson association estimates and P values to assess the association between one month PBAC scores and PFA-100 showed 0.463 (with a p-value of 0.017). A similar analysis between one month PBAC scores and VWFA and RCOA showed 0.099 (p=0.632) and the association between PFA-100 and VWFA and RCOA showed an inverse relationship of −0.481 (p=0.013). These results confirm a correlation between VWFA and RCOA and assessment of platelet function utilizing a PFA-100. Furthermore, there was a correlation between PBAC scores and the results of the PFA-100. The association between PBAC scores and VWAF screening levels did not show significance. These results suggest further data are necessary to understand the relationship between these variables and further suggests that the PFA-100 may offer a more sensitive assessment of platelet function that correlates with clinical presentation than levels of VWFA or RCOA.

Menorrhagia is a common problem among women. The pathophysiology has been attributed to Von Willebrand’s disease in some patients. The lab diagnosis and confirmation of this condition in these women is often difficult. The need for easily reproducible, validated lab investigations is recognized. The platelet function analyzer (PFA-100) (described below) has recently been used as an adjunct for lab diagnosis of this condition. Use of this device is relatively recent, thus clinical correlation with its results have been lacking. Therefore, we initiated a study to determine if a correlation could be established between pictorial blood assessment chart (PBAC), PFA-100, and Von Willebrand’s screening (VWF antigen and co-factor activity levels). Materials and methods: After obtaining informed consent 15 female patients with a diagnosis of von Villebrand’s disease were enrolled in the above study. All received verbal and written instructions of how to record their tampon/pad use on the PBAC. The PBAC was then scored on a validated and well-established point system for lightly (1point), moderately (2points) and heavily (3points) soiled pads or tampons. In addition their blood samples were analyzed for von Willebrand antigen, Ristocetin Co-Factor and on the PFA-100 (pre and post DDAVP). The PFA-100, is a high shear-inducing device which simulates primary hemostasis after injury to small vessel, which consists of a reservoir for whole blood and a small capillary surmounted by a collagen-coated membrane with a central aperture. Platelet agonist which is either epinephrine or ADP is present on the membrane. Closure time is reported as a variable which describes von Willebrand factor function. All blood samples were forwarded to Children’s Hospital of Buffalo Special Coagulation lab for examination of the PFA-100(pre and post DDAVP),and von Willebrand panel. Conclusion: There was correlation between the number of points self-assessed on the PBAC and the PFA-100. Summary Data Patient # Age # points/PBAC VWF Ristocetin Co Factor Factor VIII PFA 100 Pre DDAVP 1 48 10 56 52 70 104 2 47 23 73 53 138 90 3 21 9 69 70 63 151 4 47 180 75 51 120 280 5 44 25 107 68 114 124 6 49 47 102 93 74 63 7 25 12 74 51 84 177 8 26 8 30 28 77 216 9 30 24 47 64 115 125 10 27 11 76 45 60 118 11 25 10 66 49 79 136 12 48 11 51 48 121 117 13 25 9 59 42 44 99 14 23 41 33 11 34 275 15 46 84 3 2 11 300

There is a structural similarity between an influential argument of Berkeley's against causal realism and a traditional, and recently revived, argument against the correspondence theory of truth. Both arguments chide the realist for positing a relation between his conceptions (perceptions) of reality and a world independent of those conceptions (perceptions). Man could have no epistemic access to such a relation, it is said, for, by the realist's own admission, he has access to only one of the relata ‐ his conceptions (perceptions). I claim that the relation in question need be no more than that alleged by the biological and behavioral sciences to hold between organisms and their environments. And when studied as such, it reveals ways whereby the realist may claim to know of an outward correspondence solely on the basis of characteristics of one of the relata ‐ his conceptions (perceptions).