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One of the outstanding goals of the planetary science community is to measure the present-day atmospheric composition of planets and link this back to formation. As giant planets are formed by accreting gas, ices, and rocks, constraining the relative amounts of these components is critical to understand their formation and evolution. For most known planets, including the Solar System giants, this is difficult as they reside in a temperature regime where only volatile elements (e.g., C, O) can be measured, while refractories (e.g., Fe, Ni) are condensed to deep layers of the atmosphere where they cannot be remotely probed. With temperatures allowing for even rock-forming elements to be in the gas phase, ultra-hot Jupiter atmospheres provide a unique opportunity to simultaneously probe the volatile and refractory content of giant planets. Here we directly measure and obtain bounded constraints on the abundances of volatile C and O as well as refractory Fe and Ni on the ultra-hot giant exoplanet WASP-121b. We find that ice-forming elements are comparatively enriched relative to rock-forming elements, potentially indicating that WASP-121b formed in a volatile-rich environment much farther away from the star than where it is currently located. The simultaneous constraint of ice and rock elements in the atmosphere of WASP-121b provides insights into the composition of giant planets otherwise unattainable from Solar System observations., Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

With sizable volatile envelopes but smaller radii than the solar system ice giants, sub-Neptunes have been revealed as one of the most common types of planet in the galaxy. While the spectroscopic characterization of larger sub-Neptunes (2.5-4R$_\oplus$) has revealed hydrogen-dominated atmospheres, smaller sub-Neptunes (1.6--2.5R$_\oplus$) could either host thin, rapidly evaporating hydrogen-rich atmospheres or be stable metal-rich "water worlds" with high mean molecular weight atmospheres and a fundamentally different formation and evolutionary history. Here, we present the 0.6--2.8$\mu$m JWST NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of GJ 9827 d, the smallest (1.98 R$_\oplus$) warm (T$_\mathrm{eq, A_B=0.3} \sim 620$K) sub-Neptune where atmospheric absorbers have been detected to date. Our two transit observations with NIRISS/SOSS, combined with the existing HST/WFC3 spectrum, enable us to break the clouds-metallicity degeneracy. We detect water in a highly metal-enriched "steam world" atmosphere (O/H of $\sim 4$ by mass and H$_2$O found to be the background gas with a volume mixing ratio of >31%). We further show that these results are robust to stellar contamination through the transit light source effect. We do not detect escaping metastable He, which, combined with previous nondetections of escaping He and H, supports the steam atmosphere scenario. In water-rich atmospheres, hydrogen loss driven by water photolysis happens predominantly in the ionized form which eludes observational constraints. We also detect several flares in the NIRISS/SOSS light-curves with far-UV energies of the order of 10$^{30}$ erg, highlighting the active nature of the star. Further atmospheric characterization of GJ 9827 d probing carbon or sulfur species could reveal the origin of its high metal enrichment., Comment: 37 pages, 18 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJL

Attempts to probe the atmospheres of rocky planets around M dwarfs present both promise and peril. While their favorable planet-to-star radius ratios enable searches for even thin secondary atmospheres, their high activity levels and high-energy outputs threaten atmosphere survival. Here, we present the 0.6--2.85$\mu$m transmission spectrum of the 1.1 Earth-radius, ~340K rocky planet TRAPPIST-1c obtained over two JWST NIRISS/SOSS transit observations. Each of the two spectra displays 100--500 ppm signatures of stellar contamination. Despite being separated by 367 days, the retrieved spot and faculae properties are consistent between the two visits, resulting in nearly identical transmission spectra. Jointly retrieving for stellar contamination and a planetary atmosphere rules out with high confidence (>3-$\sigma$) not only clear hydrogen-dominated atmospheres, but even thin, 1-bar high-mean molecular weight atmospheres rich in H$_2$O, NH$_3$, or CO (at the 2-$\sigma$ level). We find that the only atmosphere scenarios which our spectrum cannot rule out are CH$_4$- or CO$_2$-rich atmospheres, which are both unlikely to be retained when considering the photodestruction of CH$_4$ and the susceptibility of even a CO$_2$-rich atmosphere to escape given the cumulative high-energy irradiation experienced by the planet. Our results further stress the importance of robustly accounting for stellar contamination when analyzing JWST observations of exo-Earths around M dwarfs, as well as the need for high-fidelity stellar models to search for the potential signals of thin secondary atmospheres., Comment: Minor typo corrections and figure axis adjustments compared to previous version

One of the main endeavors of the field of exoplanetary sciences is the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres on a population level. The current method of choice to accomplish this task is transmission spectroscopy, where the apparent radius of a transiting exoplanet is measured at multiple wavelengths in search of atomic and molecular absorption features produced by the upper atmosphere constituents. To extract the planetary radius from a transit light curve, it is necessary to account for the decrease in luminosity away from the center of the projected stellar disk, known as the limb darkening. Physically-motivated parametrizations of the limb darkening, in particular of the quadratic form, are commonly used in exoplanet transit light-curve fitting. Here, we show that such parametrizations can introduce significant wavelength-dependent biases in the transmission spectra currently obtained with all instrument modes of the JWST, and thus have the potential to affect atmospheric inferences. To avoid such biases, we recommend the use of standard limb-darkening parametrizations with wide uninformative priors that allow for non-physical stellar intensity profiles in the transit fits, and thus for a complete and symmetrical exploration of the parameter space. We further find that fitting the light curves at the native resolution results in errors on the measured transit depths that are significantly smaller compared to light curves that are binned in wavelength before fitting, thus potentially maximizing the amount of information that can be extracted from the data., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

Observing exoplanets through transmission spectroscopy supplies detailed information on their atmospheric composition, physics, and chemistry. Prior to JWST, these observations were limited to a narrow wavelength range across the near-ultraviolet to near-infrared, alongside broadband photometry at longer wavelengths. To understand more complex properties of exoplanet atmospheres, improved wavelength coverage and resolution are necessary to robustly quantify the influence of a broader range of absorbing molecular species. Here we present a combined analysis of JWST transmission spectroscopy across four different instrumental modes spanning 0.5-5.2 micron using Early Release Science observations of the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b. Our uniform analysis constrains the orbital and stellar parameters within sub-percent precision, including matching the precision obtained by the most precise asteroseismology measurements of stellar density to-date, and further confirms the presence of Na, K, H$_2$O, CO, CO$_2$, and SO$_2$ atmospheric absorbers. Through this process, we also improve the agreement between the transmission spectra of all modes, except for the NIRSpec PRISM, which is affected by partial saturation of the detector. This work provides strong evidence that uniform light curve analysis is an important aspect to ensuring reliability when comparing the high-precision transmission spectra provided by JWST., Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables. Nat Astron (2024)

LHS 1140 b is the second-closest temperate transiting planet to the Earth with an equilibrium temperature low enough to support surface liquid water. At 1.730$\pm$0.025 R$_\oplus$, LHS 1140 b falls within the radius valley separating H$_2$-rich mini-Neptunes from rocky super-Earths. Recent mass and radius revisions indicate a bulk density significantly lower than expected for an Earth-like rocky interior, suggesting that LHS 1140 b could either be a mini-Neptune with a small envelope of hydrogen ($\sim$0.1% by mass) or a water world (9--19% water by mass). Atmospheric characterization through transmission spectroscopy can readily discern between these two scenarios. Here, we present two JWST/NIRISS transit observations of LHS 1140 b, one of which captures a serendipitous transit of LHS 1140 c. The combined transmission spectrum of LHS 1140 b shows a telltale spectral signature of unocculted faculae (5.8 $\sigma$), covering $\sim$20% of the visible stellar surface. Besides faculae, our spectral retrieval analysis reveals tentative evidence of residual spectral features, best-fit by Rayleigh scattering from an N$_2$-dominated atmosphere (2.3 $\sigma$), irrespective of the consideration of atmospheric hazes. We also show through Global Climate Models (GCM) that H$_2$-rich atmospheres of various compositions (100$\times$, 300$\times$, 1000$\times$solar metallicity) are ruled out to $>$10 $\sigma$. The GCM calculations predict that water clouds form below the transit photosphere, limiting their impact on transmission data. Our observations suggest that LHS 1140 b is either airless or, more likely, surrounded by an atmosphere with a high mean molecular weight. Our tentative evidence of an N$_2$-rich atmosphere provides strong motivation for future transmission spectroscopy observations of LHS 1140 b., Comment: 26 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJL

This work examines the reproducibility and benchmarking of state-of-the-art real-time object detection models. As object detection models are often used in real-world contexts, such as robotics, where inference time is paramount, simply measuring models' accuracy is not enough to compare them. We thus compare a large variety of object detection models' accuracy and inference speed on multiple graphics cards. In addition to this large benchmarking attempt, we also reproduce the following models from scratch using PyTorch on the MS COCO 2017 dataset: DETR, RTMDet, ViTDet and YOLOv7. More importantly, we propose a unified training and evaluation pipeline, based on MMDetection's features, to better compare models. Our implementation of DETR and ViTDet could not achieve accuracy or speed performances comparable to what is declared in the original papers. On the other hand, reproduced RTMDet and YOLOv7 could match such performances. Studied papers are also found to be generally lacking for reproducibility purposes. As for MMDetection pretrained models, speed performances are severely reduced with limited computing resources (larger, more accurate models even more so). Moreover, results exhibit a strong trade-off between accuracy and speed, prevailed by anchor-free models - notably RTMDet or YOLOx models. The code used is this paper and all the experiments is available in the repository at https://github.com/Don767/segdet_mlcr2024., Comment: Authors are presented in alphabetical order, each having equal contribution to the work

Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized nonnegative ridge regression problem that optimizes the price index's subcomponent weights such that the aggregate is maximally predictive of future headline inflation. Ordering subcomponents according to their rank in each period switches the algorithm to be learning supervised trimmed inflation - or, put differently, the maximally forward-looking summary statistic of the realized price changes distribution. In an extensive out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the US and the euro area, we find substantial improvements for signaling medium-term inflation developments in both the pre- and post-Covid years. Those coming from the supervised trimmed version are particularly striking, and are attributable to a highly asymmetric trimming which contrasts with conventional indicators. We also find that this metric was indicating first upward pressures on inflation as early as mid-2020 and quickly captured the turning point in 2022. We also consider extensions, like assembling inflation from geographical regions, trimmed temporal aggregation, and building core measures specialized for either upside or downside inflation risks.

Even though sub-Neptunes likely represent the most common outcome of planet formation, their natures remain poorly understood. In particular, planets near 1.5-2.5$\,R_\oplus$ often have bulk densities that can be explained equally well with widely different compositions and interior structures, resulting in grossly divergent implications for their formation. Here, we present the full 0.6-5.2$\,\mu \mathrm{m}$ JWST NIRISS/SOSS+NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the 2.2$\,R_\oplus$ TOI-270d ($4.78\,M_\oplus$, $T_\mathrm{eq}$=350-380 K), delivering unprecedented sensitivity for atmospheric characterization in the sub-Neptune regime. We detect five vibrational bands of CH$_4$ at 1.15, 1.4, 1.7, 2.3, and 3.3$\,\mu$m (9.4$\sigma$), the signature of CO$_2$ at 4.3$\,\mu$m (4.8$\sigma$), water vapor (2.5$\sigma$), and potential signatures of SO$_2$ at 4.0$\,\mu \mathrm{m}$ and CS$_2$ at 4.6$\,\mu\mathrm{m}$. Intriguingly, we find an overall highly metal-rich atmosphere, with a mean molecular weight of $5.47_{-1.14}^{+1.25}$. We infer an atmospheric metal mass fraction of $58_{-12}^{+8}\%$ and a C/O of $0.47_{-0.19}^{+0.16}$, indicating that approximately half the mass of the outer envelope is in high-molecular-weight volatiles (H$_2$O, CH$_4$, CO, CO$_2$) rather than H$_2$/He. We introduce a sub-Neptune classification scheme and identify TOI-270d as a "miscible-envelope sub-Neptune" in which H$_2$/He is well-mixed with the high-molecular-weight volatiles in a miscible supercritical metal-rich envelope. For a fully miscible envelope, we conclude that TOI-270d's interior is $90_{-4}^{+3}\,$wt$\,\%$ rock/iron, indicating that it formed as a rocky planet that accreted a few wt % of H$_2$/He, with the overall envelope metal content explained by magma-ocean/envelope reactions without the need for significant ice accretion. TOI-270d may well be an archetype of the overall population of sub-Neptunes., Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures

We reinvigorate maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for macroeconomic density forecasting through a novel neural network architecture with dedicated mean and variance hemispheres. Our architecture features several key ingredients making MLE work in this context. First, the hemispheres share a common core at the entrance of the network which accommodates for various forms of time variation in the error variance. Second, we introduce a volatility emphasis constraint that breaks mean/variance indeterminacy in this class of overparametrized nonlinear models. Third, we conduct a blocked out-of-bag reality check to curb overfitting in both conditional moments. Fourth, the algorithm utilizes standard deep learning software and thus handles large data sets - both computationally and statistically. Ergo, our Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) provides proactive volatility forecasts based on leading indicators when it can, and reactive volatility based on the magnitude of previous prediction errors when it must. We evaluate point and density forecasts with an extensive out-of-sample experiment and benchmark against a suite of models ranging from classics to more modern machine learning-based offerings. In all cases, HNN fares well by consistently providing accurate mean/variance forecasts for all targets and horizons. Studying the resulting volatility paths reveals its versatility, while probabilistic forecasting evaluation metrics showcase its enviable reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate how this machinery can be merged with other structured deep learning models by revisiting Goulet Coulombe (2022)'s Neural Phillips Curve.

With the increasing demand for audiovisual services, telecom service providers and application developers are compelled to ensure that their services provide the best possible user experience. Particularly, services such as videoconferencing are very sensitive to network conditions. Therefore, their performance should be monitored in real time in order to adjust parameters to any network perturbation. In this paper, we developed a parametric model for estimating the perceived audiovisual quality in videoconference services. Our model is developed with the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) recurrent neural network and estimates the perceived quality in terms of mean opinion score (MOS). We validate our model using the publicly available INRS bitstream audiovisual quality dataset. This dataset contains bitstream parameters such as loss per frame, bit rate and video duration. We compare the proposed model against state-of-the-art methods based on machine learning and show our model to outperform these methods in terms of mean square error (MSE=0.150) and Pearson correlation coefficient (R=0.931)

The hot-Neptune desert is one of the most sparsely populated regions of the exoplanet parameter space, and atmosphere observations of its few residents can provide insights into how such planets have managed to survive in such an inhospitable environment. Here, we present transmission observations of LTT 9779 b, the only known hot-Neptune to have retained a significant H/He-dominated atmosphere, taken with JWST NIRISS/SOSS. The 0.6-2.85$\mu$m transmission spectrum shows evidence for muted spectral features, rejecting a perfectly flat line at >5$\sigma$. We explore water and methane-dominated atmosphere scenarios for LTT 9779 b's terminator, and retrieval analyses reveal a continuum of potential combinations of metallicity and cloudiness. Through comparisons to previous population synthesis works and our own interior structure modelling, we are able to constrain LTT 9779 b's atmosphere metallicity to 20-850x solar. Within this range of metallicity, our retrieval analyses prefer solutions with clouds at mbar pressures, regardless of whether the atmosphere is water- or methane-dominated -- though cloud-free atmospheres with metallicities >500x solar cannot be entirely ruled out. By comparing self-consistent atmosphere temperature profiles with cloud condensation curves, we find that silicate clouds can readily condense in the terminator region of LTT 9779 b. Advection of these clouds onto the day-side could explain the high day-side albedo previously inferred for this planet and be part of a feedback loop aiding the survival of LTT 9779 b's atmosphere in the hot-Neptune desert., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL

Hot Jupiters are among the best-studied exoplanets, but it is still poorly understood how their chemical composition and cloud properties vary with longitude. Theoretical models predict that clouds may condense on the nightside and that molecular abundances can be driven out of equilibrium by zonal winds. Here we report a phase-resolved emission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b measured from 5-12 $\mu$m with JWST's Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). The spectra reveal a large day-night temperature contrast (with average brightness temperatures of 1524$\pm$35 and 863$\pm$23 Kelvin, respectively) and evidence for water absorption at all orbital phases. Comparisons with three-dimensional atmospheric models show that both the phase curve shape and emission spectra strongly suggest the presence of nightside clouds which become optically thick to thermal emission at pressures greater than ~100 mbar. The dayside is consistent with a cloudless atmosphere above the mid-infrared photosphere. Contrary to expectations from equilibrium chemistry but consistent with disequilibrium kinetics models, methane is not detected on the nightside (2$\sigma$ upper limit of 1-6 parts per million, depending on model assumptions)., Comment: 61 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables. This preprint has been submitted to and accepted in principle for publication in Nature Astronomy without significant changes

The JWST Early Release Observations (ERO) included a NIRISS/SOSS (0.6-2.8$\,\mu$m) transit of the $\sim\,$850$\,$K Saturn-mass exoplanet HAT-P-18$\,$b. Initial analysis of these data reported detections of water, escaping helium, and haze. However, active K dwarfs like HAT-P-18 possess surface heterogeneities $-$ starspots and faculae $-$ that can complicate the interpretation of transmission spectra, and indeed, a spot-crossing event is present in HAT-P-18$\,$b's NIRISS/SOSS light curves. Here, we present an extensive reanalysis and interpretation of the JWST ERO transmission spectrum of HAT-P-18$\,$b, as well as HST/WFC3 and $\textit{Spitzer}$/IRAC transit observations. We detect H$_2$O (12.5$\,\sigma$), CO$_2$ (7.3$\,\sigma$), a cloud deck (7.4$\,\sigma$), and unocculted starspots (5.8$\,\sigma$), alongside hints of Na (2.7$\,\sigma$). We do not detect the previously reported CH$_4$ ($\log$ CH$_4$ $<$ -6 to 2$\,\sigma$). We obtain excellent agreement between three independent retrieval codes, which find a sub-solar H$_2$O abundance ($\log$ H$_2$O $\approx -4.4 \pm 0.3$). However, the inferred CO$_2$ abundance ($\log$ CO$_2$ $\approx -4.8 \pm 0.4$) is significantly super-solar and requires further investigation into its origin. We also introduce new stellar heterogeneity considerations by fitting for the active regions' surface gravities $-$ a proxy for the effects of magnetic pressure. Finally, we compare our JWST inferences to those from HST/WFC3 and $\textit{Spitzer}$/IRAC. Our results highlight the exceptional promise of simultaneous planetary atmosphere and stellar heterogeneity constraints in the era of JWST and demonstrate that JWST transmission spectra may warrant more complex treatments of the transit light source effect.

We present the first analysis of JWST near-infrared spectroscopy of stellar flares from TRAPPIST-1 during transits of rocky exoplanets. Four flares were observed from 0.6--2.8 $\mu$m with NIRISS and 0.6--3.5 $\mu$m with NIRSpec during transits of TRAPPIST-1b, f, and g. We discover P$\alpha$ and Br$\beta$ line emission and characterize flare continuum at wavelengths from 1--3.5 $\mu$m for the first time. Observed lines include H$\alpha$, P$\alpha$-P$\epsilon$, Br$\beta$, He I $\lambda$0.7062$\mu$m, two Ca II infrared triplet (IRT) lines, and the He I IRT. We observe a reversed Paschen decrement from P$\alpha$-P$\gamma$ alongside changes in the light curve shapes of these lines. The continuum of all four flares is well-described by blackbody emission with an effective temperature below 5300 K, lower than temperatures typically observed at optical wavelengths. The 0.6--1 $\mu$m spectra were convolved with the TESS response, enabling us to measure the flare rate of TRAPPIST-1 in the TESS bandpass. We find flares of 10$^{30}$ erg large enough to impact transit spectra occur at a rate of 3.6$\substack{+2.1 \\ -1.3}$ flare d$^{-1}$, $\sim$10$\times$ higher than previous predictions from K2. We measure the amount of flare contamination at 2 $\mu$m for the TRAPPIST-1b and f transits to be 500$\pm$450 and 2100$\pm$400 ppm, respectively. We find up to 80% of flare contamination can be removed, with mitigation most effective from 1.0--2.4 $\mu$m. These results suggest transits affected by flares may still be useful for atmospheric characterization efforts., Comment: 29 pages, 17 figures, 3 tables, accepted to The Astrophysical Journal

TRAPPIST-1 is a nearby system of seven Earth-sized, temperate, rocky exoplanets transiting a Jupiter-sized M8.5V star, ideally suited for in-depth atmospheric studies. Each TRAPPIST-1 planet has been observed in transmission both from space and from the ground, confidently rejecting cloud-free, hydrogen-rich atmospheres. Secondary eclipse observations of TRAPPIST-1 b with JWST/MIRI are consistent with little to no atmosphere given the lack of heat redistribution. Here we present the first transmission spectra of TRAPPIST-1 b obtained with JWST/NIRISS over two visits. The two transmission spectra show moderate to strong evidence of contamination from unocculted stellar heterogeneities, which dominates the signal in both visits. The transmission spectrum of the first visit is consistent with unocculted starspots and the second visit exhibits signatures of unocculted faculae. Fitting the stellar contamination and planetary atmosphere either sequentially or simultaneously, we confirm the absence of cloud-free hydrogen-rich atmospheres, but cannot assess the presence of secondary atmospheres. We find that the uncertainties associated with the lack of stellar model fidelity are one order of magnitude above the observation precision of 89 ppm (combining the two visits). Without affecting the conclusion regarding the atmosphere of TRAPPIST-1 b, this highlights an important caveat for future explorations, which calls for additional observations to characterize stellar heterogeneities empirically and/or theoretical works to improve model fidelity for such cool stars. This need is all the more justified as stellar contamination can affect the search for atmospheres around the outer, cooler TRAPPIST-1 planets for which transmission spectroscopy is currently the most efficient technique., Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters

We study the dynamic effects of fires on county labor markets in the US using a novel geophysical measure of fire exposure based on satellite imagery. We find increased fire exposure causes lower employment growth in the short and medium run, with medium-run effects being linked to migration. We also document heterogeneous effects across counties by education and industrial concentration levels, states of the business cycle, and fire size. By overcoming challenges in measuring fire impacts, we identify vulnerable places and economic states, offering guidance on tailoring relief efforts and contributing to a broader understanding of natural disasters' economic impacts., Comment: Paper and appendices. JEL codes: R11, Q54, E24, H84. Keywords: fires, employment, economic activity, natural disasters

This paper presents an efficient method for encoding common projection formats in 360$^\circ$ video coding, in which we exploit inactive regions. These regions are ignored in the reconstruction of the equirectangular format or the viewport in virtual reality applications. As the content of these pixels is irrelevant, we neglect the corresponding pixel values in ratedistortion optimization, residual transformation, as well as inloop filtering and achieve bitrate savings of up to 10%., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

This paper derives optimal spatial scaling and rate control parameters for power-efficient wireless video streaming on portable devices. A video streaming application is studied, which receives a high-resolution and high-quality video stream from a remote server and displays the content to the end-user.We show that the resolution of the input video can be adjusted such that the quality-power trade-off is optimized. Making use of a power model from the literature and subjective quality evaluation using a perceptual metric, we derive optimal combinations of the scaling factor and the rate-control parameter for encoding. For HD sequences, up to 10% of power can be saved at negligible quality losses and up to 15% of power can be saved at tolerable distortions. To show general validity, the method was tested for Wi-Fi and a mobile network as well as for two different smartphones., Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures

This paper proposes a method to evaluate and model the power consumption of modern virtual reality playback and streaming applications on smartphones. Due to the high computational complexity of the virtual reality processing toolchain, the corresponding power consumption is very high, which reduces operating times of battery-powered devices. To tackle this problem, we analyze the power consumption in detail by performing power measurements. Furthermore, we construct a model to estimate the true power consumption with a mean error of less than 3.5%. The model can be used to save power at critical battery levels by changing the streaming video parameters. Particularly, the results show that the power consumption is significantly reduced by decreasing the input video resolution., Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures

When it comes to stock returns, any form of predictability can bolster risk-adjusted profitability. We develop a collaborative machine learning algorithm that optimizes portfolio weights so that the resulting synthetic security is maximally predictable. Precisely, we introduce MACE, a multivariate extension of Alternating Conditional Expectations that achieves the aforementioned goal by wielding a Random Forest on one side of the equation, and a constrained Ridge Regression on the other. There are two key improvements with respect to Lo and MacKinlay's original maximally predictable portfolio approach. First, it accommodates for any (nonlinear) forecasting algorithm and predictor set. Second, it handles large portfolios. We conduct exercises at the daily and monthly frequency and report significant increases in predictability and profitability using very little conditioning information. Interestingly, predictability is found in bad as well as good times, and MACE successfully navigates the debacle of 2022.

The Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph instrument (NIRISS) is the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) contribution to the suite of four science instruments of JWST. As one of the three NIRISS observing modes, the Single Object Slitless Spectroscopy (SOSS) mode is tailor-made to undertake time-series observations of exoplanets to perform transit spectroscopy. The SOSS permits observing point sources between 0.6 and 2.8 um at a resolving power of 650 at 1.25 um using a slit-less cross-dispersing grism while its defocussing cylindrical lens enables observing targets as bright as J=6.7 by spreading light across 23 pixels along the cross-dispersion axis. This paper officially presents the design of the SOSS mode, its operation, characterization, and its performance, from ground-based testing and flight-based Commissioning. On-sky measurements demonstrate a peak photon conversion efficiency of 55% at 1.2 um. The first time-series on the A-type star BD+60o1753 achieves a flux stability close to the photon-noise limit, so far tested to a level of 20 parts per million on 40-minute time-scales after simply subtracting a long-term trend. Uncorrected 1/f noise residuals underneath the spectral traces add an extra source of noise equivalent to doubling the readout noise. Preliminary analysis of a HAT-P-14b transit time-series indicates that it is difficult to remove all the noise in pixels with partially saturated ramps. Overall, the SOSS delivers performance at the level required to tackle key exoplanet science programs such as detecting secondary atmospheres on terrestrial planets and measuring abundances of several chemical species in gas giants., Comment: 41 pages, 28 figures, accepted for publication in PASP

We extend the motion-planning-through-gadgets framework to several new scenarios involving various numbers of robots/agents, and analyze the complexity of the resulting motion-planning problems. While past work considers just one robot or one robot per player, most of our models allow for one or more locations to spawn new robots in each time step, leading to arbitrarily many robots. In the 0-player context, where all motion is deterministically forced, we prove that deciding whether any robot ever reaches a specified location is undecidable, by representing a counter machine. In the 1-player context, where the player can choose how to move the robots, we prove equivalence to Petri nets, EXPSPACE-completeness for reaching a specified location, PSPACE-completeness for reconfiguration, and ACKERMANN-completeness for reconfiguration when robots can be destroyed in addition to spawned. Finally, we consider a variation on the standard 2-player context where, instead of one robot per player, we have one robot shared by the players, along with a ko rule to prevent immediately undoing the previous move. We prove this impartial 2-player game EXPTIME-complete., Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures. Presented at SAND 2023

The future is now - after its long-awaited launch in December 2021, JWST began science operations in July 2022 and is already revolutionizing exoplanet astronomy. The Early Release Observations (ERO) program was designed to provide the first images and spectra from JWST, covering a multitude of science cases and using multiple modes of each on-board instrument. Here, we present transmission spectroscopy observations of the hot-Saturn WASP-96b with the Single Object Slitless Spectroscopy (SOSS) mode of the Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph, observed as part of the ERO program. As the SOSS mode presents some unique data reduction challenges, we provide an in-depth walk-through of the major steps necessary for the reduction of SOSS data: including background subtraction, correction of 1/f noise, and treatment of the trace order overlap. We furthermore offer potential routes to correct for field star contamination, which can occur due to the SOSS mode's slitless nature. By comparing our extracted transmission spectrum with grids of atmosphere models, we find an atmosphere metallicity between 1x and 5x solar, and a solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio. Moreover, our models indicate that no grey cloud deck is required to fit WASP-96b's transmission spectrum, but find evidence for a slope shortward of 0.9$\mu$m, which could either be caused by enhanced Rayleigh scattering or the red wing of a pressure-broadened Na feature. Our work demonstrates the unique capabilities of the SOSS mode for exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and presents a step-by-step reduction guide for this new and exciting instrument., Comment: MNRAS, in press. Updated to reflect published version

The newly operational JWST offers the potential to study the atmospheres of distant worlds with precision that has not been achieved before. One of the first exoplanets observed by JWST in the summer of 2022 was WASP-96 b, a hot-Saturn orbiting a G8 star. As part of the Early Release Observations program, one transit of WASP-96 b was observed with NIRISS/SOSS to capture its transmission spectrum from 0.6-2.85 microns. In this work, we utilise four retrieval frameworks to report precise and robust measurements of WASP-96 b's atmospheric composition. We constrain the logarithmic volume mixing ratios of multiple chemical species in its atmosphere, including: H$_2$O = $-3.59 ^{+ 0.35 }_{- 0.35 }$, CO$_2$ = $-4.38 ^{+ 0.47 }_{- 0.57 }$ and K = $-8.04 ^{+ 1.22 }_{- 1.71 }$. Notably, our results offer a first abundance constraint on potassium in WASP-96 b's atmosphere, and important inferences on carbon-bearing species such as CO$_2$ and CO. Our short wavelength NIRISS/SOSS data are best explained by the presence of an enhanced Rayleigh scattering slope, despite previous inferences of a clear atmosphere - although we find no evidence for a grey cloud deck. Finally, we explore the data resolution required to appropriately interpret observations using NIRISS/SOSS. We find that our inferences are robust against different binning schemes. That is, from low $R = 125$ to the native resolution of the instrument, the bulk atmospheric properties of the planet are consistent. Our systematic analysis of these exquisite observations demonstrates the power of NIRISS/SOSS to detect and constrain multiple molecular and atomic species in the atmospheres of hot giant planets., Comment: 12 pages, 5 Figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Companion paper to Radica et al., 2023

Electronic health records and other sources of observational data are increasingly used for drawing causal inferences. The estimation of a causal effect using these data not meant for research purposes is subject to confounding and irregular covariate-driven observation times affecting the inference. A doubly-weighted estimator accounting for these features has previously been proposed that relies on the correct specification of two nuisance models used for the weights. In this work, we propose a novel consistent quadruply robust estimator and demonstrate analytically and in large simulation studies that it is more flexible and more efficient than its only proposed alternative. It is further applied to data from the Add Health study in the United States to estimate the causal effect of therapy counselling on alcohol consumption in American adolescents.

We analyze the computational complexity of basic reconfiguration problems for the recently introduced surface Chemical Reaction Networks (sCRNs), where ordered pairs of adjacent species nondeterministically transform into a different ordered pair of species according to a predefined set of allowed transition rules (chemical reactions). In particular, two questions that are fundamental to the simulation of sCRNs are whether a given configuration of molecules can ever transform into another given configuration, and whether a given cell can ever contain a given species, given a set of transition rules. We show that these problems can be solved in polynomial time, are NP-complete, or are PSPACE-complete in a variety of different settings, including when adjacent species just swap instead of arbitrary transformation (swap sCRNs), and when cells can change species a limited number of times (k-burnout). Most problems turn out to be at least NP-hard except with very few distinct species (2 or 3).

We analyze Solo Chess puzzles, where the input is an $n \times n$ board containing some standard Chess pieces of the same color, and the goal is to make a sequence of capture moves to reduce down to a single piece. Prior work analyzes this puzzle for a single piece type when each piece is limited to make at most two capture moves (as in the Solo Chess puzzles on chess.com). By contrast, we study when each piece can make an unlimited number of capture moves. We show that any single piece type can be solved in polynomial time in a general model of piece types, while any two standard Chess piece types are NP-complete. We also analyze the restriction (as on chess.com) that one piece type is unique and must be the last surviving piece, showing that in this case some pairs of piece types become tractable while others remain hard., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures. Presented at JCDCGGG 2022

Dynamic graphs are rich data structures that are used to model complex relationships between entities over time. In particular, anomaly detection in temporal graphs is crucial for many real world applications such as intrusion identification in network systems, detection of ecosystem disturbances and detection of epidemic outbreaks. In this paper, we focus on change point detection in dynamic graphs and address three main challenges associated with this problem: i). how to compare graph snapshots across time, ii). how to capture temporal dependencies, and iii). how to combine different views of a temporal graph. To solve the above challenges, we first propose Laplacian Anomaly Detection (LAD) which uses the spectrum of graph Laplacian as the low dimensional embedding of the graph structure at each snapshot. LAD explicitly models short term and long term dependencies by applying two sliding windows. Next, we propose MultiLAD, a simple and effective generalization of LAD to multi-view graphs. MultiLAD provides the first change point detection method for multi-view dynamic graphs. It aggregates the singular values of the normalized graph Laplacian from different views through the scalar power mean operation. Through extensive synthetic experiments, we show that i). LAD and MultiLAD are accurate and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and their multi-view extensions by a large margin, ii). MultiLAD's advantage over contenders significantly increases when additional views are available, and iii). MultiLAD is highly robust to noise from individual views. In five real world dynamic graphs, we demonstrate that LAD and MultiLAD identify significant events as top anomalies such as the implementation of government COVID-19 interventions which impacted the population mobility in multi-view traffic networks., Comment: 30 pages, 15 figures, extended version of previous paper "Laplacian Change Point Detection for Dynamic Graphs" with novel material. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2007.01229

We analyze the puzzle video game This Game Is Not Going To Load Itself, where the player routes data packets of three different colors from given sources to given sinks of the correct color. Given the sources, sinks, and some previously placed arrow tiles, we prove that the game is in Sigma_2^P; in NP for sources of equal period; NP-complete for three colors and six equal-period sources with player input; and even without player input, simulating the game is both NP- and coNP-hard for two colors and many sources with different periods. On the other hand, we characterize which locations for three data sinks admit a perfect placement of arrow tiles that guarantee correct routing no matter the placement of the data sources, effectively solving most instances of the game as it is normally played., Comment: 23 pages, 23 figures. Presented at JCDCGGG 2022

Transmission spectroscopy provides insight into the atmospheric properties and consequently the formation history, physics, and chemistry of transiting exoplanets. However, obtaining precise inferences of atmospheric properties from transmission spectra requires simultaneously measuring the strength and shape of multiple spectral absorption features from a wide range of chemical species. This has been challenging given the precision and wavelength coverage of previous observatories. Here, we present the transmission spectrum of the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b obtained using the SOSS mode of the NIRISS instrument on the JWST. This spectrum spans $0.6 - 2.8 \mu$m in wavelength and reveals multiple water absorption bands, the potassium resonance doublet, as well as signatures of clouds. The precision and broad wavelength coverage of NIRISS-SOSS allows us to break model degeneracies between cloud properties and the atmospheric composition of WASP-39b, favoring a heavy element enhancement ("metallicity") of $\sim 10 - 30 \times$ the solar value, a sub-solar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio, and a solar-to-super-solar potassium-to-oxygen (K/O) ratio. The observations are best explained by wavelength-dependent, non-gray clouds with inhomogeneous coverage of the planet's terminator., Comment: 48 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables. Under review at Nature

The need for rapid and reliable robot deployment is on the rise. Imitation Learning (IL) has become popular for producing motion planning policies from a set of demonstrations. However, many methods in IL are not guaranteed to produce stable policies. The generated policy may not converge to the robot target, reducing reliability, and may collide with its environment, reducing the safety of the system. Stable Estimator of Dynamic Systems (SEDS) produces stable policies by constraining the Lyapunov stability criteria during learning, but the Lyapunov candidate function had to be manually selected. In this work, we propose a novel method for learning a Lyapunov function and a policy using a single neural network model. The method can be equipped with an obstacle avoidance module for convex object pairs to guarantee no collisions. We demonstrated our method is capable of finding policies in several simulation environments and transfer to a real-world scenario., Comment: 7 pages, 11 figures, submitted to the International Conference on Robotics and Automation (2023)

In this paper we define a new model of limited communication for multiplayer team games of imperfect information. We prove that the Team DFA Game and Team Formula Game, which have bounded state, remain undecidable when players have a rate of communication which is less than the rate at which they make moves in the game. We also show that meeting this communication threshold causes these games to be decidable., Comment: In Proceedings GandALF 2022, arXiv:2209.09333