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Abstract Alcohol is widely used but recognized as a risk factor for several adverse health outcomes based on observational studies. How alcohol affects lifespan remains controversial, with no trial to make such an assessment available or likely. We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess the effect of alcohol on lifespan in men and women, including a possible role of smoking and education. Strong (p

Abstract We assessed the causal relation of four glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes liability with 167 metabolites using Mendelian randomization with various sensitivity analyses and a reverse Mendelian randomization analysis. We extracted instruments for fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, fasting insulin, and glycated hemoglobin from the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium (n = 200,622), and those for type 2 diabetes liability from a meta-analysis of multiple cohorts (148,726 cases, 965,732 controls) in Europeans. Outcome data were from summary statistics of 167 metabolites from the UK Biobank (n = 115,078). Fasting glucose and 2-h glucose were not associated with any metabolite. Higher glycated hemoglobin was associated with higher free cholesterol in small low-density lipoprotein. Type 2 diabetes liability and fasting insulin were inversely associated with apolipoprotein A1, total cholines, lipoprotein subfractions in high-density-lipoprotein and intermediate-density lipoproteins, and positively associated with aromatic amino acids. These findings indicate hyperglycemia-independent patterns and highlight the role of insulin in type 2 diabetes development. Further studies should evaluate these glycemic traits in type 2 diabetes diagnosis and clinical management.

Abstract Background With increasing hypercholesterolemia prevalence in East Asian adolescents, pharmacologic interventions (e.g., HMGCR inhibitors (statins) and PCSK9 inhibitors) may have to be considered although their longer-term safety in the general adolescent population is unclear. This study aims to investigate the longer-term safety of HMGCR inhibitors and PCSK9 inhibitors among East Asian adolescents using genetics. Methods A drug-target Mendelian randomization study leveraging the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium (East Asian, n = 146,492) and individual-level data from Chinese participants in the Biobank clinical follow-up of Hong Kong’s “Children of 1997” birth cohort (n = 3443, aged ~ 17.6 years). Safety outcomes (n = 100) included anthropometric and hematological traits, renal, liver, lung function, and other nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Positive control outcomes were cholesterol markers from the “Children of 1997” birth cohort and coronary artery disease from Biobank Japan. Results Genetic inhibition of HMGCR and PCSK9 were associated with reduction in cholesterol-related NMR metabolomics, e.g., apolipoprotein B (HMGCR: beta [95% CI], − 1.06 [− 1.52 to − 0.60]; PCSK9: − 0.93 [− 1.56 to − 0.31]) and had the expected effect on the positive control outcomes. After correcting for multiple comparisons (p-value

Abstract Background Asialoglycoprotein receptor 1 (ASGR1) is emerging as a potential drug target to reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol and coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. Here, we investigated genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors on all-cause mortality and any possible adverse effects. Methods We conducted a drug-target Mendelian randomization study to assess genetically mimicked effects of ASGR1 inhibitors on all-cause mortality and 25 a priori outcomes relevant to lipid traits, CAD, and possible adverse effects, i.e. liver function, cholelithiasis, adiposity and type 2 diabetes. We also performed a phenome-wide association study of 1951 health-related phenotypes to identify any novel effects. Associations found were compared with those for currently used lipid modifiers, assessed using colocalization, and replicated where possible. Results Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were associated with a longer lifespan (3.31 years per standard deviation reduction in LDL-cholesterol, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 5.62). Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were inversely associated with apolipoprotein B (apoB), triglycerides (TG) and CAD risk. Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were positively associated with alkaline phosphatase, gamma glutamyltransferase, erythrocyte traits, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and C-reactive protein (CRP), but were inversely associated with albumin and calcium. Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were not associated with cholelithiasis, adiposity or type 2 diabetes. Associations with apoB and TG were stronger for ASGR1 inhibitors compared with currently used lipid modifiers, and most non-lipid effects were specific to ASGR1 inhibitors. The probabilities for colocalization were > 0.80 for most of these associations, but were 0.42 for lifespan and 0.30 for CAD. These associations were replicated using alternative genetic instruments and other publicly available genetic summary statistics. Conclusions Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors reduced all-cause mortality. Beyond lipid-lowering, genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors increased liver enzymes, erythrocyte traits, IGF-1 and CRP, but decreased albumin and calcium.

Background Establishing the sex‐specific efficacy of cardiovascular medications is pivotal to evidence‐based clinical practice, potentially closing the gender gap in longevity. Trials large enough to establish sex differences are unavailable. This study evaluated sex‐specific effects of commonly prescribed cardiovascular medications on lifespan. Methods and Results In a two‐sample Mendelian randomization study, established genetic variants mimicking effects of lipid‐lowering drugs, antihypertensives, and diabetes drugs were applied to genetic associations with lifespan proxied by UK Biobank maternal (n=412 937) and paternal (n=415 311) attained age. Estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting, with sensitivity analyses where possible. For lipid‐lowering drugs, genetically mimicked PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibitors were associated with longer lifespan, particularly in men (2.39 years per SD low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction [95% CI, 0.42–4.36], P for interaction=0.14). Genetically mimicked treatments targeting APOC3, LPL, or possibly LDLR were associated with longer lifespan in both sexes. For antihypertensives, genetically mimicked β‐blockers and calcium channel blockers were associated with longer lifespan, particularly in men (P for interaction=0.17 for β‐blockers and 0.31 for calcium channel blockers). For diabetes drugs, genetically mimicked metformin was associated with longer lifespan in both sexes. No associations were found for genetically mimicked statins, ezetimibe, or angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors. Conclusions PCSK9 inhibitors, β‐blockers, and calcium channel blockers may prolong lifespan in the general population, particularly men. Treatments targeting APOC3, LPL, or LDLR and metformin may be relevant to both sexes. Whether other null findings are attributable to lack of efficacy requires investigation. Further investigation of repurposing should be conducted.

Abstract Observationally, the association of basal metabolic rate (BMR) with mortality is mixed, although some ageing theories suggest that higher BMR should reduce lifespan. It remains unclear whether a causal association exists. In this one-sample Mendelian randomization study, we aimed to estimate the casual effect of BMR on parental attained age, a proxy for lifespan, using two-sample Mendelian randomization methods. We obtained genetic variants strongly (p-value

Abstract Background Low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol is positively associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, which could detract from lipid modification. Here, we examined whether lipid traits potentially relevant to CVD aetiology, i.e. apolipoprotein B (apoB), triglycerides (TG) and lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] exhibited the same associations. We investigated sex-specifically, including the role of sex hormones, because sex disparities exist in lipid profile and type 2 diabetes. We also replicated where possible. Methods We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine sex-specific associations of apoB, TG and Lp(a) with type 2 diabetes, HbA1c, fasting insulin, fasting glucose, testosterone and estradiol in the largest relevant sex-specific genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in people of European ancestry and replicated where possible. We also assessed sex-specific associations of liability to type 2 diabetes with apoB, TG and Lp(a). Results Genetically predicted apoB and Lp(a) had little association with type 2 diabetes or glycemic traits in women or men. Genetically predicted higher TG was associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk [odds ratio (OR) 1.44 per standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26 to 1.65], HbA1c and fasting insulin specifically in women. Higher TG was associated with lower testosterone in women and higher testosterone in men, but with lower estradiol in men and women. Genetic liability to type 2 diabetes was associated with higher TG in women, and possibly with lower apoB in men. Conclusions Lipid traits potentially relevant to CVD aetiology do not exhibit contrasting associations with CVD and type 2 diabetes. However, higher TG is associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk and glycemic traits, which in turn further increases TG specifically in women, possibly driven by sex hormones.

Abstract Background l-carnitine is emerging as an item of interest for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and treatment, but controversy exists. To examine the effectiveness and safety of l-carnitine, we assessed how genetically different levels of l-carnitine are associated with CVD risk and its risk factors. Given higher CVD incidence and l-carnitine in men, we also examined sex-specific associations. Methods We used Mendelian randomization to obtain unconfounded estimates. Specifically, we used genetic variants to predict l-carnitine, and obtained their associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation, as well as CVD risk factors (type 2 diabetes, glucose, HbA1c, insulin, lipid profile, blood pressure and body mass index) in large consortia and established cohorts, as well as sex-specific association in the UK Biobank. We obtained the Wald estimates (genetic association with CVD and its risk factors divided by the genetic association with l-carnitine) and combined them using inverse variance weighting. In sensitivity analysis, we used different analysis methods robust to pleiotropy and replicated using an l-carnitine isoform, acetyl-carnitine. Results Genetically predicted l-carnitine was nominally associated with higher risk of CAD overall (OR 1.07 per standard deviation (SD) increase in l-carnitine, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11) and in men (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) but had a null association in women (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.09). These associations were also robust to different methods and evident for acetyl-carnitine. Conclusions Our findings do not support a beneficial association of l-carnitine with CVD and its risk factors but suggest potential harm. l-carnitine may also exert a sex-specific role in CAD. Consideration of the possible sex disparity and exploration of the underlying pathways would be worthwhile.

Background: Increasing childhood obesity is a global issue requiring potentially local solutions to ensure it does not continue into adulthood. We systematically identified potentially modifiable targets of obesity at the onset and end of puberty in Hong Kong, the most economically developed major Chinese city. Methods: We conducted an environment-wide association study (EWAS) and an epigenome-wide association study of obesity to systematically assess associations with body mass index (BMI) and waist–hip ratio (WHR) in Hong Kong’s population-representative ‘Children of 1997’ birth cohort. Univariable linear regression was used to select exposures related to obesity at ~11.5 years (BMI and obesity risk n ≤ 7119, WHR n = 5691) and ~17.6 years (n = 3618) at Bonferroni-corrected significance, and multivariable regression to adjust for potential confounders followed by replicated multivariable regression (n = 308) and CpG by CpG analysis (n = 286) at ~23 years. Findings were compared with evidence from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies. Results: At ~11.5 and~17.6 years the EWAS identified 14 and 37 exposures associated with BMI, as well as 7 and 12 associated with WHR, respectively. Most exposures had directionally consistent associations at ~23 years. Maternal second-hand smoking, maternal weight, and birth weight were consistently associated with obesity. Diet (including dairy intake and artificially sweetened beverages), physical activity, snoring, binge eating, and earlier puberty were positively associated with BMI at ~17.6 years, while eating before sleep was inversely associated with BMI at ~17.6 years. Findings for birth weight, dairy intake, and binge eating are consistent with available evidence from RCTs or MR studies. We found 17 CpGs related to BMI and 17 to WHR. Conclusions: These novel insights into potentially modifiable factors associated with obesity at the outset and the end of puberty could, if causal, inform future interventions to improve population health in Hong Kong and similar Chinese settings. Funding: This study including the follow-up survey and epigenetics testing was supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund Research Fellowship, Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government (#04180097). The DNA extraction of the samples used for epigenetic testing was supported by CFS-HKU1.

Abstract Statins have been suggested as a potential treatment for immune-related diseases. Conversely, statins might trigger auto-immune conditions. To clarify the role of statins in allergic diseases and auto-immune diseases, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Using established genetic instruments to mimic statins via 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) inhibition, we assessed the effects of statins on asthma, eczema, allergic rhinitis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriasis, type 1 diabetes, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), multiple sclerosis (MS), Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis in the largest available genome wide association studies (GWAS). Genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition were not associated with any immune-related diseases in either study after correcting for multiple testing; however, they were positively associated with the risk of asthma in East Asians (odds ratio (OR) 2.05 per standard deviation (SD) decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.52, p value 0.009). These associations did not differ by sex and were robust to sensitivity analysis. These findings suggested that genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition have little effect on allergic diseases or auto-immune diseases. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition might increase the risk of asthma in East Asians.

Abstract Background Previous large observational cohort studies showed higher blood pressure (BP) positively associated with cancer. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain less confounded estimates of BP on total and site-specific cancers. Methods We applied replicated genetic instruments for systolic and diastolic BP to summary genetic associations with total cancer (37387 cases, 367856 non-cases) from the UK Biobank, and 17 site-specific cancers (663–17881 cases) from a meta-analysis of the UK Biobank and the Kaiser Permanente Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging. We used inverse-variance weighting with multiplicative random effects as the main analysis, and sensitivity analyses including the weighted median, MR-Egger and multivariable MR adjusted for body mass index and for smoking. For validation, we included breast (Breast Cancer Association Consortium: 133384 cases, 113789 non-cases), prostate (Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome Consortium: 79194 cases, 61112 non-cases) and lung (International Lung and Cancer Consortium: 10246 cases, 38295 non-cases) cancer from large consortia. We used asthma as a negative control outcome. Results Systolic and diastolic BP were unrelated to total cancer (OR 0.98 per standard deviation higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89, 1.07] and OR 1.00 [95% CI 0.92, 1.08]) and to site-specific cancers after accounting for multiple testing, with consistent findings from consortia. BP was nominally associated with melanoma and possibly kidney cancer, and as expected, not associated with asthma. Sensitivity analyses using other MR methods gave similar results. Conclusions In contrast to previous observational evidence, BP does not appear to be a risk factor for cancer, although an effect on melanoma and kidney cancer cannot be excluded. Other targets for cancer prevention might be more relevant.

Abstract The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) blood pressure (BP) guidelines lowered the hypertension threshold to ≥ 130/80 mmHg, but the role of diastolic BP remains contested. This two-sample mendelian randomisation study used replicated genetic variants predicting systolic and diastolic BP applied to the UK Biobank and large genetic consortia, including of cardiovascular diseases and parental lifespan, to obtain total and direct effects. Systolic and diastolic BP had positive total effects on CVD (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95, 2.37 and OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.73, 2.11, respectively). Direct effects were similar for systolic BP (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.48, 2.25) but completely attenuated for diastolic BP (1.18, 95% CI 0.97, 1.44), although diastolic BP was associated with coronary artery disease (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03, 1.50). Systolic and diastolic BP had similarly negative total (− 0.20 parental attained age z-score, 95% CI − 0.22, − 0.17 and − 0.17, 95% CI − 0.20, − 0.15, respectively) and direct negative effects on longevity. Our findings suggest systolic BP has larger direct effects than diastolic BP on CVD, but both have negative effects (total and direct) on longevity, supporting the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines lowering both BP targets.

Abstract Background Kidney dysfunction occurs in severe COVID-19, and is a predictor of COVID-19 mortality. Whether kidney dysfunction causes severe COVID-19, and hence is a target of intervention, or whether it is a symptom, is unclear because conventional observational studies are open to confounding. To obtain unconfounded estimates, we used Mendelian randomization to examine the role of kidney function in severe COVID-19. Methods We used genome-wide significant, uncorrelated genetic variants to predict kidney function, in terms of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and then assessed whether people with genetically instrumented higher eGFR or lower UACR, an indication of better kidney function, had a lower risk of severe COVID-19 (8779 cases, 1,001,875 controls), using the largest available cohorts with extensive genotyping. For comprehensiveness, we also examined their role in COVID-19 hospitalization (24,274 cases, 2,061,529 controls) and all COVID-19 (1,12,612 cases, 2,474,079 controls). Results Genetically instrumented higher eGFR was associated with lower risk of severe COVID-19 (odds ratio (OR) 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83, 0.98) but not related to COVID-19 hospitalization or infection. Genetically instrumented UACR was not related to COVID-19. Conclusions Kidney function appears to be one of the key targets for severe COVID-19 treatment. Use of available medications to improve kidney function, such as antihypertensives, might be beneficial for COVID-19 treatment, with relevance to drug repositioning.

Abstract Men are more vulnerable to ischemic heart disease (IHD) than women, possibly due to testosterone. Correspondingly, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) which lowers circulating testosterone might protect men against IHD. SHBG may also affect IHD independent of testosterone, which has not previously been examined. To assess the sex-specific role of SHBG in IHD, in univariable Mendelian randomization (MR), we used sex-specific, genome-wide significant genetic variants to predict SHBG, and examined their association with IHD in the UK Biobank. We also replicated using genetic instruments from Japanese men and applied to Biobank Japan. To assess the role of SHGB independent of testosterone in men, we used multivariable MR controlling for testosterone. Genetically predicted SHBG was associated with lower IHD risk in men [odds ratio (OR) 0.78 per standard deviation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70 to 0.87], and the association was less clear in women. The estimates were similar in Japanese. The inverse association remained after controlling for testosterone in men (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.88). SHBG might lower the risk of IHD in men, with a role independent of testosterone. Exploring intervention strategies that increase SHBG is important for targeting IHD treatments.

Abstract The role of interleukin (IL)-1 family members/receptors in lung cancer remains uncertain due to the susceptibility of observed associations to confounding. We appraised the association of IL-1 family members/receptors with lung cancer and its subtypes [lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and squamous cell lung cancer (LUSC)] using two-sample Mendelian randomization. This study found that no IL-1 family members/receptors were significantly associated with lung cancer and its subtypes risk after correction for multiple testing. However, suggestive total effects of increased risk were noted for genetically predicted IL-1Racp with lung cancer (P = 0.006), IL-1α with LUAD (P = 0.027), and IL-1Racp with LUSC (P = 0.008). Suggestive direct effects were also noted for IL-1β, IL-1Ra, IL-36γ with lung cancer, IL-1α/β, IL-1Ra with LUAD, and IL-1β, IL-18BP with LUSC, after adjusting for genetically predicted effects of other IL-1 family members/receptors. Taken together, our findings suggest that interventions decreasing IL-1Racp might protect against lung cancer, perhaps via IL-1α/β or IL-1Ra.

Background: Cell culture and animal studies suggest puerarin could prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, trials in human are scare, not primarily designed for prevention, and inadequately powered. We assessed the effect of puerarin supplementation on CVD risk factors in men using a crossover trial. Methods: In total, 217 Chinese men aged 18–50 years without a history of CVD were recruited. They were randomized to take a puerarin supplement (90.2 mg daily) or a placebo, followed by a 4-week wash-out period, and then crossed over to the other intervention. An intention-to-treat analysis was used. Differences in primary outcomes (lipid profile such as low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol) and secondary outcomes (other CVD risk factors such as blood pressure and fasting glucose, and some potential mediating pathways such as testosterone) between supplementation and placebo within participants were compared using a paired t-test, or a crossover (CROS)-based analysis where a period effect existed. Results: Lipid profile was similar after the puerarin supplementation or placebo (e.g., mean difference in LDL cholesterol: −0.02 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.09 to −0.06). Conversely, fasting glucose was reduced after the puerarin supplementation (−0.13 mmol/L, 95% CI −0.25 to −0.008). There were no differences in blood pressure, testosterone, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, prothrombin time, liver or renal function. Conclusion: In young-to-middle-aged Chinese men, short-term puerarin supplementation did not improve the primary outcome of lipid profile, but an exploratory analysis suggested that puerarin could be beneficial for one of the secondary outcomes, i.e., fasting glucose.

Abstract APOE genotypes are associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD), several other cardiovascular diseases and dementia. Previous studies have not comprehensively considered all genotypes, especially ε2ε2, nor associations by age and sex, although IHD incidence differs by sex. In the UK Biobank, including 391,992 white British participants, we compared effects of APOE genotypes on IHD and its risk factors. Compared to the ε3ε3 genotype, ε2ε2 was not clearly associated with IHD but was associated with lower plasma apolipoprotein B (apoB). The ε2ε3 genotype conferred lower IHD risk, systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulse pressure and plasma apoB than ε3ε3. ε3ε4 and ε4ε4 conferred higher IHD risk, higher pulse pressure and plasma apoB, but lower glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) than ε3ε3. The associations by age and sex were fairly similar, except ε2ε2 compared to ε3ε3 was marginally positively associated with IHD in the younger age group and nominally inversely associated with SBP in men. ε3ε4 compared to ε3ε3 was nominally positively associated with SBP in women. APOE genotypes affect IHD risk increasingly from ε2ε3, ε3ε3, ε3ε4 to ε4ε4, with similar patterns for pulse pressure and plasma apoB, but not for diabetes. Associations with blood pressure differed by sex. Greater understanding of products of APOE and their effects might generate targets of intervention.

Abstract Background Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and/or in combination with calcium channel blockers (CCBs) are generally recommended as the first-line antihypertensive therapy for people with hypertension and kidney dysfunction. Evidence from large randomized controlled trials comprehensively comparing renal effects of different classes of antihypertensive drugs is lacking. Methods We used a Mendelian randomization study to obtain unconfounded associations of genetic proxies for antihypertensives with kidney function. Specifically, we used published genetic variants in genes regulating target proteins of these drugs and then applied to a meta-analysis of the largest available genome-wide association studies of kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and albuminuria). Inverse variance weighting was used as the main analysis and to combine estimates from different sources. Results Genetically predicted ACE inhibition was associated with higher eGFR (effect size 0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.008, 0.11), while genetic proxies for beta-blockers were associated with lower eGFR (− 0.02, 95% CI − 0.04, − 0.004) when meta-analyzing the UK Biobank and CKDGen. Genetic proxies for CCBs were associated with lower UACR (− 0.15, 95% CI − 0.28, − 0.02) and lower risk of albuminuria (odds ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.37, 0.90) in CKDGen. The associations were robust to using different analysis methods and different genetic instruments. Conclusions Our findings suggest the reno-protective associations of genetically proxied ACE inhibitors and CCBs, while genetic proxies for beta-blockers may be related to lower eGFR. Understanding the underlying mechanisms would be valuable, with implications for drug development and repositioning of treatments for kidney disease.

Abstract Background Observational studies suggest poorer glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk although these findings could be confounded by socioeconomic position. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization to clarify their role in COVID-19 risk and specific COVID-19 phenotypes (hospitalized and severe cases). Method We identified genetic instruments for fasting glucose (n = 133,010), 2 h glucose (n = 42,854), glycated hemoglobin (n = 123,665), and type 2 diabetes (74,124 cases and 824,006 controls) from genome wide association studies and applied them to COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative summary statistics (17,965 COVID-19 cases and 1,370,547 population controls). We used inverse variance weighting to obtain the causal estimates of glycemic traits and genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes in COVID-19 risk. Sensitivity analyses included MR-Egger and weighted median method. Results We found genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes was not associated with any COVID-19 phenotype (OR: 1.00 per unit increase in log odds of having diabetes, 95%CI 0.97 to 1.04 for overall COVID-19; OR: 1.02, 95%CI 0.95 to 1.09 for hospitalized COVID-19; and OR: 1.00, 95%CI 0.93 to 1.08 for severe COVID-19). There were no strong evidence for an association of glycemic traits in COVID-19 phenotypes, apart from a potential inverse association for fasting glucose albeit with wide confidence interval. Conclusion We provide some genetic evidence that poorer glycemic traits and predisposition to type 2 diabetes unlikely increase the risk of COVID-19. Although our study did not indicate glycemic traits increase severity of COVID-19, additional studies are needed to verify our findings.

Abstract We assessed the associations of genetically instrumented blood sucrose with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and its risk factors (i.e., type 2 diabetes, adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, and glycaemic traits), using two-sample Mendelian randomization. We used blood fructose as a validation exposure. Dental caries was a positive control outcome. We selected genetic variants strongly (P

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has an apparent sex disparity, with a more rapid progress in men than in women. Whether the well-established sex-specific evolutionary biology trade-off between reproduction and longevity might inform CKD has not previously been considered. Relevant evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is not available. Methods We used a bi-directional Mendelian randomization study to obtain unconfounded estimates using the UK Biobank. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that strongly (p value

Abstract Background Blood pressure (BP) and body mass index (BMI) trends during childhood and adolescence are complex, making context-specific projections necessary to inform prevention and presage changes. Objective This study aimed to project BP and BMI in Hong Kong Chinese children and adolescents from 2015 to 2024 based on trends in BP and BMI observed from 1996/99 to 2014. Methods We decomposed recent trends into sex-specific contributions of age, period and cohort using age-period-cohort linear regression with Bayesian inference and autoregressive priors based on BP in children and adolescents aged 9–18 years from 1999 to 2014 and BMI in those aged 6–18 years from 1996 to 2014. We then used the resultant models to project BP and BMI from 2015 to 2024. Results During the study period, systolic BP decreased from 1999 to 2004/5 before gradually increasing to 2014 during childhood (for boys: from 104.6 to 101.9 and then to 103.4 mmHg) and during adolescence. Similar patterns were observed for diastolic BP. BMI generally increased from 1996 to 2009 before falling to 2014 during childhood (e.g. for boys: from 17.2 to 18.0 and then to 17.1 kg/m2). From 2015 onwards, systolic BP was projected to increase in girls, but remain stable in boys. For both sexes, diastolic BP was projected to increase, whereas BMI was projected to decrease to 2024. Conclusions In this economically developed Chinese setting, future trends in BP and BMI in children and adolescents are predicted to be divergent, consistent with prior discordant trends in BP and BMI.

The associations between absolute vs. relative income at the household or neighborhood level and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remain understudied in the Chinese context. Further, it is unclear whether stress biomarkers, such as cortisol, are on the pathway from income to CVD risk. We examined the associations of absolute and relative income with CVD risk observationally, as well as the mediating role of cortisol, and validated the role of cortisol using Mendelian Randomization (MR) in Hong Kong Chinese. Within Hong Kong's FAMILY Cohort, associations of absolute and relative income at both the individual and neighborhood levels with CVD risk [body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, self-reported CVD and self-reported diabetes] were examined using multilevel logistic or linear models (n = 17,607), the mediating role of cortisol using the mediation analysis (n = 1,562), and associations of genetically predicted cortisol with CVD risk using the multiplicative generalized method of moments (MGMMs) or two-stage least squares regression (n = 1,562). In our cross-sectional observational analysis, relative household income deprivation (per 1 SD, equivalent to USD 128 difference in Yitzhaki index) was associated with higher systolic blood pressure (0.47 mmHg, 95% CI 0.30–0.64), but lower BMI (−0.07 kg/m2, 95% CI −0.11 to −0.04), independent of absolute income. Neighborhood income inequality was generally unrelated to CVD and its risk factors, nor was absolute income at the household or neighborhood level. Cortisol did not clearly mediate the association of relative household income deprivation with systolic blood pressure. Using MR, cortisol was unrelated to CVD risk. Based on our findings, relative household income deprivation was not consistently associated with cardiovascular health in Hong Kong Chinese, nor were neighborhood income inequality and absolute income, highlighting the context-specific ways in which relative and absolute income are linked to CVD risk.

Selection bias is increasingly acknowledged as a limitation of Mendelian randomization (MR). However, few methods exist to assess this issue. We focus on two plausible causal structures relevant to MR studies and illustrate the data-generating process underlying selection bias via simulation studies. We conceptualize the use of control exposures to validate MR estimates derived from selected samples by detecting potential selection bias and reproducing the exposure–outcome association of primary interest based on subject matter knowledge. We discuss the criteria for choosing the control exposures. We apply the proposal in an MR study investigating the potential effect of higher transferrin with stroke (including ischemic and cardioembolic stroke) using transferrin saturation and iron status as control exposures. Theoretically, selection bias affects associations of genetic instruments with the outcome in selected samples, violating the exclusion-restriction assumption and distorting MR estimates. Our applied example showing inconsistent effects of genetically predicted higher transferrin and higher transferrin saturation on stroke suggests the potential selection bias. Furthermore, the expected associations of genetically predicted higher iron status on stroke and longevity indicate no systematic selection bias. The routine use of control exposures in MR studies provides a valuable tool to validate estimated causal effects. Like the applied example, an antagonist, decoy, or exposure with similar biological activity as the exposure of primary interest, which has the same potential selection bias sources as the exposure–outcome association, is suggested as the control exposure. An additional or a validated control exposure with a well-established association with the outcome is also recommended to explore possible systematic selection bias.

Background: Basal metabolic rate is associated with cancer, but these observations are open to confounding. Limited evidence from Mendelian randomization studies exists, with inconclusive results. Moreover, whether basal metabolic rate has a similar role in cancer for men and women independent of insulin-like growth factor 1 increasing cancer risk has not been investigated.Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization study using summary data from the UK Biobank to estimate the causal effect of basal metabolic rate on cancer. Overall and sex-specific analysis and multiple sensitivity analyses were performed including multivariable Mendelian randomization to control for insulin-like growth factor 1.Results: We obtained 782 genetic variants strongly (p-value < 5 × 10–8) and independently (r2 < 0.01) predicting basal metabolic rate. Genetically predicted higher basal metabolic rate was associated with an increase in cancer risk overall (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.10) with similar estimates by sex (odds ratio for men, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.002–1.14; odds ratio for women, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.995–1.12). Sensitivity analyses including adjustment for insulin-like growth factor 1 showed directionally consistent results.Conclusion: Higher basal metabolic rate might increase cancer risk. Basal metabolic rate as a potential modifiable target of cancer prevention warrants further study.

IntroductionFibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), a potential biomarker for kidney function, is related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes, although it is unclear whether the relation is causal. This study evaluated the associations of genetically predicted FGF23 with major CVDs, their risk factors, kidney function, and longevity using Mendelian randomization (MR).MethodsThis is a two-sample MR study using summary statistics from large genome-wide association studies. Primary outcomes included coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular risk factors, kidney function, and longevity. We used four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) predicting FGF23, excluding rs2769071 in the ABO gene, which likely violates the MR exclusion-restriction assumption. We used inverse-variance weighted (IVW) as the primary statistical method to assess associations of FGF23 with the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses included weighted median (WM) and MR-Egger. We repeated the analyses including all five SNPs. Last, we validated the positive findings from the main analyses in a smaller study, i.e., FinnGen.ResultsUsing IVW, genetically predicted higher FGF23 was inversely associated with risk of CAD [odds ratio (OR): 0.69 per logtransformed FGF23 (pg/ml) increase, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52–0.91] and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.52–0.96), but not with the other outcomes. The WM and MR-Egger estimates were directionally consistent.ConclusionThis study suggests that genetically predicted higher FGF23 may be protective against CAD and T2DM. Future studies should explore the underlying mechanisms related to the potential protective effect of FGF23. FGF23 was unlikely a cause of poorer renal function.

BackgroundImmune system functioning is relevant to vulnerability to coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Cytokines are important to immunity. To further elucidate the role of the immune system in COVID-19, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess comprehensively and bi-directionally the role of cytokines in COVID-19.MethodsWe assessed primarily whether genetically different levels of 41 cytokines affected risk of any COVID-19 (laboratory confirmed, physician confirmed or self-reported, 36,590 cases, 1,668,938 controls), and conversely if genetic risk of liability to any COVID-19 affected these cytokines (n ≤ 8293) using the most recent genome-wide association studies. We obtained inverse variance weighting (IVW) estimates, conducted sensitivity analyses and used a Benjamini-Hochberg correction to account for multiple comparisons. We also assessed whether any findings were evident for hospitalized COVID-19 (hospitalized laboratory confirmed, 12,888 cases, 1,295,966 controls).ResultsMacrophage inflammatory protein-1β (MIP1b; more commonly known as Chemokine (C-C motif) ligands 4 (CCL4) was inversely associated with COVID-19 [odds ratio (OR) 0.97 per SD, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96–0.99] but not after adjustment for multiple comparisons. This finding replicated for hospitalized COVID-19 (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.98). Liability to any COVID-19 was nominally associated with several cytokines, such as granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF) and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) but not after correction.ConclusionA crucial element of immune response to infection (CCL4) was related to COVID-19, whether it is a target of intervention to prevent COVID-19 warrants further investigation.

Abstract Background The role of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in ischemic heart disease (IHD) is controversial, and dietary guidelines vary. Observationally, lower saturated fat intake and higher intake of vegetable oils rich in linoleic acid (LA), the main n-6 PUFA, is associated with lower IHD and diabetes; however, randomized controlled trials have not fully corroborated these benefits. We assessed how genetically predicted LA affected IHD and its risk factors, including diabetes, lipids, and blood pressure. We also assessed the role of LA in reticulocyte count, the red blood cell precursor, which has recently been identified as a possible causal factor in IHD. Methods Two-sample instrumental variable analysis with genetic instruments, i.e., Mendelian randomization, was used to obtain unconfounded estimates using genetic variants strongly (p value

Background: Early-life air pollution exposure is associated with lung function in children and adolescents. However, whether the association of prenatal and early postnatal exposure to air pollution with lung function continues into adulthood remains unclear. Objective: To investigate the associations of early exposure to air pollution with lung function at ~17.5 years in a non-western developed setting with more concentrated air pollutants. Methods: We examined the associations of exposure to particular matter with an aerodynamic diameter of

Background: Arachidonic acid (AA), a major long-chain n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid in animal foods, has been linked to inflammation, coagulation, and testosterone, which might relate to atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD). We assessed the associations of genetically predicted plasma phospholipid AA with ASCVD and other CVD overall and by sex using Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods: We conducted two-sample MR, applying eight genetic variants, independent of a highly pleiotropic variant (rs174547), strongly (p

Background: Air quality alert programs have been introduced around the world to reduce the short term effects of air pollution on health. Hong Kong, a densely populated city in southern China with high levels of air pollution, introduced its first air quality health index (AQHI) on December 30th 2013. However, whether air quality alert program warnings, such as the AQHI, reduces morbidity is uncertain. Using a quasi-experimental design, we conducted the first evaluation of the AQHI in Hong Kong, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity in Hong Kong’s elderly population. Method: Interrupted time series with Poisson segmented regression from 2010 to 2016 was used to detect any sudden or gradual changes in emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), after the AQHI policy was implemented. To account for potential confounders, models were adjusted for air pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, O3), temperature and humidity. The findings were validated using a negative control and three false policy periods. We also assessed effects on specific subtypes of CVD (hypertensive disease (HPD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, stroke and other CVD) and by sex. Results: From January 1st 2010 to December 31st, 2016, 375,672 hospital admissions for CVD occurred in Hong Kong’s elderly population. Immediately after the policy HPD and AMI dropped by16% (relative risk (RR) 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78–0.91) and 15% (RR 0.85, 95% CI: (0.76–0.97)) respectively. There was no significant change for all CVD or other sub-types and no differences by sex. Conclusion: Hong Kong’s AQHI helped reduced hospital admissions in the elderly for HPD and AMI but had no effect on overall emergency hospitalization for CVD. To maximize health benefits of the policy, at risk groups need to be able to follow the behavioral changes recommended by the AQHI warnings. Keywords: AQHI, Cardiovascular diseases, Elderly, Interrupted time series, Segmented regression

BackgroundHigher alanine transaminase (ALT), indicating poor liver function, is positively associated with diabetes but inversely associated with body mass index (BMI) in Mendelian randomization (MR) studies, suggesting liver function affects muscle mass. To clarify, we assessed the associations of liver enzymes with muscle and fat mass observationally with two-sample MR as a validation.MethodsIn the population-representative "Children of 1997" birth cohort (n = 3,455), we used multivariable linear regression to assess the adjusted associations of ALT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at ~17.5 years with muscle mass and body fat percentage observationally. Genetic variants predicting ALT, ALP and gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) were applied to fat-free and fat mass in the UK Biobank (n = ~331,000) to obtain unconfounded MR estimates.ResultsObservationally, ALT was positively associated with muscle mass (0.11 kg per IU/L, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10 to 0.12) and fat percentage (0.15% per IU/L, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.17). ALP was inversely associated with muscle mass (-0.03 kg per IU/L, 95% CI -0.04 to -0.02) and fat percentage (-0.02% per IU/L, 95% CI -0.03 to -0.01). Using MR, ALT was inversely associated with fat-free mass (-0.41 kg per 100% in concentration, 95% CI -0.64 to -0.19) and fat mass (-0.58 kg per 100% in concentration, 95% CI -0.85 to -0.30). ALP and GGT were unclearly associated with fat-free mass or fat mass.ConclusionALT reducing fat-free mass provides a possible pathway for the positive association of ALT with diabetes and suggests a potential target of intervention.

Obesity is associated with higher cardio-metabolic risk even in childhood and adolescence; whether this association is mediated by epigenetic mechanisms remains unclear. We examined the extent to which mid-childhood body mass index (BMI) z-score (median age 7.7 years) was associated with cardio-metabolic risk score in early adolescence (median age 12.9 years) via mid-childhood DNA methylation among 265 children in the Project Viva. We measured DNA methylation in leukocytes using the Infinium Human Methylation450K BeadChip. We assessed mediation CpG-by-CpG using epigenome-wide association analyses, high-dimensional mediation analysis, and natural effect models. We observed mediation by mid-childhood DNA methylation at 6 CpGs for the association between mid-childhood BMI z-score and cardio-metabolic risk score in early adolescence in the high-dimensional mediation analysis (accounting for 10% of the total effect) and in the natural effect model (β = 0.04, P = 3.2e-2, accounting for 13% of the total effect). The natural direct effect of BMI z-score on cardio-metabolic risk score was still evident (β = 0.27, P = 1.1e-25). We also observed mediation by mid-childhood DNA methylation at 5 CpGs that was in the opposite direction from the total effect (natural effect model: β = −0.04, P = 2.0e-2). Mediation in different directions implies a complex role of DNA methylation in the association between BMI and cardio-metabolic risk and needs further investigation. Future studies with larger sample size and greater variability in cardio-metabolic risk will further help elucidate the role of DNA methylation for cardio-metabolic risk.

Abstract Background In biomedical research much effort is thought to be wasted. Recommendations for improvement have largely focused on processes and procedures. Here, we additionally suggest less ambiguity concerning the questions addressed. Methods We clarify the distinction between two conflated concepts, prediction and explanation, both encompassed by the term “risk factor”, and give methods and presentation appropriate for each. Results Risk prediction studies use statistical techniques to generate contextually specific data-driven models requiring a representative sample that identify people at risk of health conditions efficiently (target populations for interventions). Risk prediction studies do not necessarily include causes (targets of intervention), but may include cheap and easy to measure surrogates or biomarkers of causes. Explanatory studies, ideally embedded within an informative model of reality, assess the role of causal factors which if targeted for interventions, are likely to improve outcomes. Predictive models allow identification of people or populations at elevated disease risk enabling targeting of proven interventions acting on causal factors. Explanatory models allow identification of causal factors to target across populations to prevent disease. Conclusion Ensuring a clear match of question to methods and interpretation will reduce research waste due to misinterpretation.

Abstract To clarify the role of thyroid function in ischemic heart disease (IHD) we assessed IHD risk and risk factors according to genetically predicted thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) positivity. Separate-sample instrumental variable analysis with genetic instruments (Mendelian randomization) was used in an extensively genotyped case (n = 64,374)-control (n = 130,681) study, CARDIoGRAMplusC4D. Associations with lipids, diabetes and adiposity were assessed using the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium Results (n = 196,475), the DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis case (n = 34,380)-control (n = 114,981) study, and the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (body mass index in 152,893 men and 171,977 women, waist-hip ratio in 93,480 men and 116,741 women). Genetically predicted thyroid function was not associated with IHD (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation for TSH 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97 to 1.12; for FT4 1.01, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.12; for TPOAb positivity 1.10, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.46) or after Bonferroni correction with risk factors, except for an inverse association of FT4 with low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. The associations were generally robust to sensitivity analyses using a weighted median method and MR Egger. This novel study provides little indication that TSH, FT4 or TPOAb positivity affects IHD, despite potential effects on its risk factors.

Abstract Osteoporosis is a common age-related disorder leading to an increase in osteoporotic fractures and resulting in significant suffering and disability. Inflammation may contribute to osteoporosis, as it does to many other chronic diseases. We examined whether inflammation is etiologically relevant to osteoporosis, assessed from bone mineral density (BMD), as a new potential target of intervention, or whether it is a symptom/biomarker of osteoporosis. We obtained genetic predictors of inflammatory markers from genome-wide association studies and applied them to a large genome wide association study of BMD. Using two-sample Mendelian randomization, we obtained unconfounded estimates of the effect of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) on BMD at the forearm, femoral neck, an d lumbar spine. After removing potentially pleiotropic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) possibly acting via obesity-related traits, hsCRP, based on 16 SNPs from genes including CRP, was not associated with BMD. A causal relation of hsCRP with lower BMD was not evident in this study.

Abstract Secular trends in blood pressure (BP) and body mass index (BMI) during childhood and adolescence are sentinels for the future population cardiovascular disease burden. We examined trends in BP z-score (ages 9–18 years from 1999 to 2014) and BMI z-score (ages 6–18 years from 1996 to 2014) in Hong Kong, China. Overall, BP z-score fell, systolic BP from 0.08 to −0.01 in girls and from 0.31 to 0.25 in boys. However, the trends were not consistent, for both sexes, systolic BP z-score was stable from 1999, decreased slightly from 2002 to 2005 and increased slightly to 2014, diastolic BP z-score decreased slightly from 1999 to 2004 and then remained stable to 2014. In contrast, BMI z-score rose from −0.15 to −0.01 in girls and from 0.14 to 0.34 in boys, mainly during 1997 to 2010. The upper tail of the systolic (except boys) and diastolic BP distribution shifted downwards, whereas the entire BMI distribution shifted upward. BP declined slightly whereas BMI rose in Hong Kong children and adolescents during the last 20 years, with systolic BP and BMI in boys above the reference. This warrants dual action in tackling rising BMI and identifying favorable determinants of BP, particularly targeting boys.

BackgroundLower birth weight is associated with diabetes although the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Muscle mass could be a modifiable link and hence a target of intervention. We assessed the associations of birth weight with muscle and fat mass observationally in a population with little socio-economic patterning of birth weight and using Mendelian randomization (MR) for validation.MethodsIn the population-representative "Children of 1997" birth cohort (n = 8,327), we used multivariable linear regression to assess the adjusted associations of birth weight (kg) with muscle mass (kg) and body fat (%) at ~17.5 years. Genetically predicted birth weight (effect size) was applied to summary genetic associations with fat-free mass and fat mass (kg) from the UK Biobank (n = ~331,000) to obtain unconfounded estimates using inverse-variance weighting.ResultsObservationally, birth weight was positively associated with muscle mass (3.29 kg per kg birth weight, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.83 to 3.75) and body fat (1.09% per kg birth weight, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.65). Stronger associations with muscle mass were observed in boys than in girls (p for interaction 0.004). Using MR, birth weight was positively associated with fat-free mass (0.77 kg per birth weight z-score, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.33) and fat mass (0.58, 95% CI 0.01 to 1.15). No difference by sex was evident.ConclusionHigher birth weight increasing muscle mass may be relevant to lower birth weight increasing the risk of diabetes and suggests post-natal muscle mass as a potential target of intervention.

Arachidonic acid (AA), a major long-chain omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid, is associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. We assessed bi-directional associations of AA synthesis reflected by plasma phospholipid AA with CVD risk factors, and identified mediators of associations of AA with IHD and stroke using Mendelian randomization (MR). We used two-sample MR to assess bi-directional associations of AA synthesis with lipids, blood pressure, adiposity, and markers of inflammation and coagulation. We used multivariable MR to assess mediators of associations of AA with IHD and stroke. Genetically predicted AA (% of total fatty acids increase) was positively associated with apolipoprotein B (ApoB, 0.022 standard deviations (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.010, 0.034), high-density (0.030 SD, 95% CI 0.012, 0.049) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, 0.016 SD, 95% CI 0.004, 0.027) and lower triglycerides (−0.031 SD, 95% CI −0.049, −0.012) but not with other traits. Genetically predicted these traits gave no association with AA. The association of AA with IHD was attenuated adjusting for ApoB or LDL-C. Genetically predicted AA was associated with lipids but not other traits. Given ApoB is thought to be the key lipid in IHD, the association of AA with IHD is likely mediated by ApoB.