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This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17-18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17-18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Using a sample of adjudicated French Canadian males from the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study, this article investigates individual and social characteristics associated with differential cost avoidance. The main objective of this study is to determine whether such traits are randomly distributed across differential degrees of cost avoidance or whether they reflect some degree of rationality. Differential cost avoidance is a composite measure that includes the ratio of self-reported career length to officially recorded career length, the ratio of self-reported offending gravity to officially recorded gravity, and the ratio of time "free" to periods of incarceration. Findings reveal that it is particularly difficult to predict differential cost avoidance at early ages. The main predictors of the residual degree of differential cost avoidance in the early 30s include substance use (especially drugs), the accumulation of debts, and the use of violence in the perpetration of crime. Implications for desistance research are discussed. (Contains 3 tables and 4 notes.)

Explores the heuristic value of a typological approach for preventing and studying school dropout. Empirically builds a typology of dropouts based on individual school experiences, tests the typology's reliability by replicating the classification with two different longitudinal samples, and examines the typology's predictive and discriminant validity. (Author/MKA)

In the first study, a hierarchical structure of personality traits was identified using data from a longitudinal study tracing two samples of men from adolescence to midlife (i.e., a representative sample of the general population and a sample of individuals adjudicated during their adolescence). The second study examined structural, rank-order, and mean-level continuity. Partial structural continuity was demonstrated through confirmatory factor analysis. Regarding rank-order continuity, the correlations were stronger as age increased, particularly for the adjudicated men. For mean-level continuity, the adjudicated men displayed higher scores from adolescence to midlife for nearly every personality trait related to Disinhibition and Negative Emotionality. Significant decreases were observed in these traits for both samples, supporting the hypothesis of a normative psychological maturation. Although both samples showed this maturation, the adjudicated men displayed a lower rate of change during adolescence and early adulthood. The two samples did not differ in Extraversion and this trait remained more stable, particularly for adjudicated men.