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Program/project uncertainty can most simply be defined as the unpredictability of its outcome. As might be expected, the degree of uncertainty depends substantially on program/project type. For hi-tech programs/projects, uncertainty all too frequently translates into schedule slips, cost overruns and occasionally even to cancellations or failures - consummations root cause of such events is often attributed to inadequate definition of requirements. If such were indeed the root cause, then correcting the situation would simply be a matter of requiring better requirements definition, but since history seems frequently to repeat itself, this must not be the case - at least not in total. There are in fact many contributors to schedule slips, cost overruns, project cancellations and failures, among them lack of adequate requirements definition. The case can be made, however, that many of these contributors are related to the degree of uncertainty at the outset of the project. And further, that a dominant factor in the degree of uncertainty is the maturity of the technology required to bring the project to fruition. This presentation discusses the concept of relating degrees of uncertainty to Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) and their associated Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) levels. It also briefly describes a quantifiable process to establish the appropriate TRL for a given technology and quantifies through the AD2 what is required to move it from its current TRL to the desired TRL in order to reduce risk and maximize likelihood of successfully infusing the technology.

Technological advances over the last decade in metrology, fabrication techniques and materials have made a significant impact on spacebased astronomy and together with advances in adaptive optics offer the opportunity for even more radical changes in the future. The Hubble Space Telescope primary mirror is 2.4 meters in diameter and weighs on the order of 150 kilograms per square meter. The technology demonstration mirrors developed for the James Webb Telescope had an order of magnitude less in area density and developments in membrane optics offer the opportunity to achieve another order of magnitude decrease. Similar advances in mirrors for x-ray astronomy means that across the spectrum future space based telescopes will have greater and greater collecting areas with ever increasing resolution.

The Next Generation Space Telescope is currently envisioned as a eight meter diameter cryogenic deployable telescope that will operate at the earth sun libration point L2. A number of different designs are being examined within NASA and under industry studies by Ball Aerospace, Lockheed-Martin and TRW. Although these designs differ in many respects, they all require significant advancements in the state-of-the-art with respect to large diameter, ultra-lightweight, mirrors. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the current status of the mirror development program NGST is a tremendously ambitious undertaking that sets the mark for new NASA missions. In order to achieve the weight, cost and performance requirements of NGST, the primary mirror must be made lighter, cheaper and better than anything that has ever been done. In order to accomplish this an aggressive technology program has been put in place. The scope of the program was determined by examining historically what has been accomplished; assessing recent technological advances in fabrication and testing; and evaluating the effect of these advances relative to enabling the manufacture of lightweight mirrors that meet NGST requirements. As it is currently envisioned, the primary mirror for NGST is on the order of eight meters in diameter, it is to be diffraction limited at a wave length of 2 microns and has an overall weight requirement of 15 kilograms per square meter. Two large scale demonstration projects are under way along with a number of smaller scale demonstrations on a variety of mirror materials and concepts. The University of Arizona (UA) mirror concept is based around a 2mm thick Borosilicate glass face sheet mounted to a composite backplane structure via actuators for mirror figure correction. The Composite Optics Inc.(COI) concept consists of a 3.2mm thick Zerodur face sheet bonded to a composite support structure which in turn is mounted to a composite backplane structure via actuators for mirror phasing. These mirrors are due to be performance tested in ambient conditions in the fall of '98, and cryogenically tested in the spring of '99. The smaller scale efforts include the following: Beryllium is being investigated at Ball Aerospace, Electroform nickel is being investigated in-house at MSFC, Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) Silicon Carbide (SiC) is being investigated at Morton International Silicon mirrors are being investigated at Schafer, Carbon Fiber Reinforced Silicon Carbide (CSIC) is being investigated at IABG. SiC at SSG, Composite mirrors at COI, pyrolyzed graphite mirrors at Ultramet, reaction bonded SiC mirrors at Xinetics, along with techniques for lightweighting using waterjets at Waterjet Technology Inc. are all being investigated under the Small Business innovative Research Program SBIR program. A procurement for a third large scale demonstration (nominally 1.5m in diameter) is being planned for release this fall.

A considerable amount of effort over the past year has been devoted to exploring ultra-lightweight optics for two specific NASA programs, the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST), and the High Throughput X-ray Spectrometer (HTXS). Experimental investigations have been undertaken in a variety of materials including glass, composites, nickel, beryllium, Carbon Silicon Carbide, Reaction Bonded Silicon Carbide, Chemical Vapor Deposited Silicon Carbide, and silicon. Overall results of these investigations will be summarized, and specific details will be provided concerning the in-house development of ultra-lightweight nickel replication for both grazing incidence and normal incidence optics. This will include x-ray test results of the grazing incidence optic and cryogenic test results of the normal incidence optic. The status of two 1.5 meter diameter demonstration mirrors for NGST will also be presented. These two demonstrations are aimed at establishing the capability to manufacture and test mirrors that have an areal density of 15 kilograms per square meter.

Data on the bihemispherical and directional-hemispherical reflectance were measured on a gold standard, a flowers of sulfur secondary standard, glass bead blasted aluminum, and 120 grade aluminum oxide sandpaper. These reflectances were measured for the P(24) and P(20) 10-micron and R(26), R(20), and P(20) 9-micron CO2 lines. The specular and retroreflection character of scattering from aluminum and sandpaper was evident in the measurements. The results agree reasonably well with previous measurements. Also when the sphere is irradiated with polarized light no difference was noted in the reflectance, which indicates that the integrating sphere is a depolarizer.

A coherent CO2 lidar operating in a master oscillator power amplifier configuration (MOPA) is described for both ground-based and airborne operation. Representative data taken from measurements against stationary targets in both the ground-based and airborne configurations are shown for the evaluation of the frequency stability of the system. Examples of data are also given which show the results of anomalous system operation. Overall results demonstrate that velocity measurements can be performed consistently to an accuracy of + or - 0.5 m/s and in some cases + or - 0.1 m/s.

This paper describes recent measurements using coherent Doppler lidars operating at a wavelength of 10.6 microns aboard the NASA Ames Convair 990. The purpose of the measurements was to obtain data on the atmospheric wind fields and the distribution of the backscatter coefficient at 10.6 microns. A decription of the instruments is provided detailing the modifications incorporated following the 1981 test flights of the systems. The measurement program is outlined, and preliminary results are discussed.