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Abstract This study examines the relative impacts of transport and information and communications technology (ICT) components of trade-related infrastructure on bilateral trade flows between Nigeria and its major trading partners. An augmented standard gravity model that featured variables for the transport infrastructure component and the ICT component was estimated using bilateral trade data on 22 major trading partners of Nigeria for the period 2005–2021. The panel instrumental variables technique, precisely pooled two-stage least squares technique leveraged on fixed and random effects models, was used for the analysis. The findings show that the two components of trade-related infrastructure, transportation and information and communication technology (ICT) have a significant impact on trade flows between Nigeria and its trading partners. In the exports model, the differential impact of the transport infrastructure component is higher than the ICT component, but the differential impact of the ICT component is greater in the imports model. This suggests that the efficient provision of both transport and ICT infrastructure facilitates trade, while the inefficient provision of either or both hinders it. Therefore, greater attention must be placed on improving both components.

Strong commercial ties promote peace as states shun the opportunity costs of economic disruption. However, trade also enriches and empowers states, rendering them more capable of enforcing long-term settlements. Given economic disruption does not last forever, countries can be incentivized to trade short-term economic losses for long-term political or territorial gains. This trade-off can restrict or even reverse the pacifying effect of commerce as it renders states incapable of committing to existing peaceful deals. I argue the scope condition hinges on the existing power imbalance and the security externalities of trade, defined as states' abilities to translate trade gains into (potential) military power. For countries where the existing power gap is not extreme, the impact of bilateral strategic trade is contingent upon a country's trade externality relative to its opponent's. Although increased bilateral trade can be peace-promoting when the relative externality is small, the pacifying effects can dissipate as a relatively weaker state becomes more capable of exploiting trade gains. Building on recent work in network analysis, I propose a new measurement of trade externalities to test the above theory and find supporting results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop a model on how military and trade alliances can impact defense spending. • Importance of trade and its balance with the leader influences defense spending. • The larger the leader's trade and surplus, the lower the minor partners' spending. Military spending was the main government expenditure until the 20th century, and it still represents a significant fraction of most governments' budgets. We develop a theoretical model to understand how both military and trade alliances with military leaders can impact defense spending. By increasing the costs of military aggression by a non-ally, an alliance reduces the probability of war and allows minor partners reducing their military spending in exchange for a stronger trade relationship with an alliance leader and a higher trading surplus for the latter. We test our hypotheses with data on 138 countries for 1996–2020. Our results show that the importance of the trade relationship and the trade balance with the military alliance leader is a significant driver of military spending. The greater the weight of trade with the military leader and the higher its trade surplus, the lower is the defense spending of the minor partner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and Ukraine for the 2016-2022 period. One of this research’s main objectives is to analyze each trading partner’s role in bilateral trade. Using statistical analysis methods, we estimate each country’s share of bilateral trade for imports and exports of the top imported/exported products. Based on the analysis, it is found that in some product groups such as Group 72 “Iron and Steel”, Group 86 “Railway or Tramway Locomotives, Rolling Stock and Parts Thereof” and Group 27 “Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained From Bituminous Minerals”, Bulgaria and Ukraine have already established long-term relationships. For the five-year 2016-2021 period, Ukrainian exports to Bulgaria have increased by 100%, and imports have increased by 214%. The results of this study may contribute to further scientific research to determine the direction of development of international trade in both countries. The positive trends in each country’s exports to the other encourage additional investments, particularly in the manufacture of these products and in the search for new market niches [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the stochastic frontier gravity model is applied to analyze the trade potential between China and Nepal and the prospects of Lanzhou-Kathmandu South Asian rail-road freight trains (LKSARFT). Based on the statistical data, we test the Exports Efficiency (EE), Bilateral Trade Efficiency (BTE), Exports Trade Potential (ETP), Bilateral Trade Potential (BTP), Extended Exports Trade Potential (EETP), Extended Bilateral Trade Potential (EBTP), Improved Exports Trade Potential (IETP) and Improved Bilateral Trade Potential (IBTP) between China and Nepal, the following analysis results can be found: for the bilateral trade model, the bilateral non-efficiency factor decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing, bilateral trade increasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. For the exports model, the exports non-efficiency factor increasing at a rate of 0.004 with time increasing, exports trade decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. The BTE between China and Nepal increases when time changes, the EE from China to Nepal remains constant changing during the 18 years. The changing range of BTE is 0.002–0.05; the changing range of EE from China to Nepal is over 0.1, larger than the BTE. The BTE and EE ranking among the eight South Asian countries are ranking fifth and fourth during the 18 years. exports trade resistance from China to Nepal is larger than bilateral trade resistance; The import trade potential from Nepal to China is huge, the focus of bilateral trade between China and Nepal may be changed, there are more goods may be exported from Nepal to China, and China may become trade deficit when trading with Nepal. Then, the development bottlenecks of the LKSARFT are analyzed. Finally, we give policy directions to boost bilateral trade efficiency and tap the potential of bilateral trade between China and Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have used various datasets and methodologies to analyze the relationship between bilateral trade and income convergence among trading partners. However, most studies have not paid attention to the effect that income levels and nature of bilateral trade have on the speed of income convergence. In this paper, we argue that the income levels of trading partners and the nature of bilateral trade play important role in the relationship between bilateral trade and international income convergence. To account for the effect of income levels of trading partners, this paper presents an approach that explicitly accounts for bilateral trade among high-income (OECD) countries, bilateral trade between high-income and low-income (SSA) countries, and bilateral trade among low-income (SSA) countries. We also used total trade data for 25 OECD countries and 30 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2018 to avoid the potential bias for selecting certain countries based on arbitrary percentage of trade relationship. We used the 2SLS estimations technique to avoid endogeneity problems due to the nature of the dataset. The paper finds that the bilateral trade-income convergence relationship for OECD to SSA is the strongest. This result throws light on the claim that the nature of bilateral trade between high-income and low-income countries promotes one directional knowledge spillover from high-income to low-income countries which enables low-income countries to adopt new technologies and grow faster than their high-income counterparts. Also, bilateral trade among OECD countries, which mostly comprises of differentiated products, promotes descent income convergence among them. However, bilateral trade among SSA countries has the least effect on income convergence. Findings of the study have important implications for bilateral trade among low-income countries and between low income and high income countries. First, if SSA countries want to develop and catch up with their rich counterparts, they should continue to promote free trade with high income countries by dismantling remaining protection policies. Second, the African Continental Free Trade Area's (AfCFTA) efforts to boost the manufacturing sector through industrialization is in the right direction to promote the production of more differentiated products in Africa which will create growth in income for member countries as they trade more. Finally, there is the need for SSA countries to increase investment rates and improve human capital accumulation to enable them to accelerate the adoption of new technologies and grow faster than their high-income counterparts, while bridging the income gap between them through trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the effect of free trade on intra-African bilateral trade balances for Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania to assess the potential implications of the African Continental Free Trade area. The four countries have experienced persistent trade deficits. Whether free trade within Africa can improve the national trade balances, and the drivers of bilateral trade balances are important questions for policy and strategic programmes for the countries to make the most gains from free trade area. The econometric model estimated for each country is an extension of the standard Keynesian model of trade balance to include determinants of bilateral trade flows from the gravity model. Quantitative analysis using panel regression was augmented with qualitative data from interviews with trade policy experts and trade officials from various African countries and focus group discussions with small-scale cross-border traders at the Busia and Namanga border posts in East Africa. Findings show that complete tariff elimination on intra–African trade may not impact the bilateral trade balances of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania but could improve bilateral trade balances for Uganda by 6 percent. Within the free trade areas, Uganda’s bilateral trade balances were higher within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa but lower within the East African Community, than outside these areas. Kenya’s trade balances were lower in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, than otherwise. On the contrary, no significant difference in trade balances is established for the membership of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in the East African Community; Rwanda in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; and Tanzania in the Southern African Development Community, when compared to trade balances with non-members. The importance of macroeconomic factors is demonstrated by the increase in bilateral trade balances with higher relative price levels of trade partners; the reduction with increase in relative production and expenditure capacities of trade partners; and improvements following a depreciation of home currency for Tanzania and Uganda, yet a worsening of trade balances in Kenya. A lack of harmony in documents required for cross-border movements within the free trade areas is reported as counterproductive. All African countries should therefore fully implement protocols and cooperate in the harmonization of trade procedures for the free movement of people and goods across borders. Country policies and trade programmes should pursue increased productivity in the leading intra-African export sectors and diversify exports via foreign direct investment in strategic sectors to substitute imports from outside Africa; reduce costs of production; increase the quality of products; and improve transport infrastructure.

The EU and China are among the largest economies affecting the global economy and each other. The paper aims to determine the structure and trends in the trade relations between the EU and China from the perspective of trade imbalances. Net export index (–29% in 2021) and the difference between export and import growth rates (–9% in 2016-2021) were calculated as the indicators of competitiveness of the economies relative to each other. Correlation coefficients and regression models were used to estimate the effects of several factors on the net export index. The EU has a surplus in services trade with China (21% of the trade), but it does not cover a much larger bilateral merchandise trade deficit (–36%), which exists in most member states. Machinery and vehicles are the most important traded items. The net export index shows that the European Union is more competitive than China in nonfuel minerals, food, vehicles, pharmaceutical products, intellectual property, computer, travel, and sea transport services. The effect of the real exchange rates on the trade imbalances is not robust due to the large difference in regression coefficients for the real exchange rates based on consumer prices and unit labor costs. In recent years, the trade balance was not significantly affected by industrial output growth trends in the EU and China (except for the COVID-19 pandemic crisis when the relative competitiveness of China in its trade with the EU improved at least in the short run).

The pollution haven hypothesis is studied from a bilateral trade perspective in this study, taking the reference of two Asian giants, namely, India and China. For this purpose, trade in pollution-intensive industries is analysed using data collected from the United Nations Comtrade dataset based on Standard Industrial Trade Classification codes for 1992–2019. The analysis helps us argue that between the two, China's demand is more pollution-intensive and India is the major supplier of pollution-intensive products. From an environmental perspective, this implies that China seems to be gaining from trade, and India is becoming a pollution haven in its trade with China.

The trade relationship between Pakistan and Italy is not just thriving but is also pivotal to the growth and modernization of Pakistan's textile industry. Italy, as one of the world's [...]

The Brexit campaign was based on the idea that newly gained British sovereignty and flexibility in global trade governance would facilitate the quick negotiation of preferential trade agreements. We explore how long it may take for a state to negotiate bilateral preferential trade agreements to offset potential losses from International Organizations withdrawals. We address the question of 'timing', and discuss several mechanisms that delay or speed up the implementation of bilateral trade deals after exiting International Organizations. The empirical findings are based on quantitative data and models accounting for the likely simultaneous relationship between International Organizations exits and preferential trade agreements' formation. We show that leaving economic organisations significantly lowers the likelihood of subsequent preferential trade agreements ratification. This effect wears out after about 1 year. This research has crucial implications for our understanding of International Organizations, state benefits' stemming from their membership therein, bilateral trade deals, and international cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines intraregional bilateral trade in virtual water embedded in cereal flows between the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) states. A gravity model is employed to examine whether annual bilateral trade depends on differences in water endowments, but also includes socio-economic and political determinants that affect trade. There is evidence that the abundance of water resources in a country influences trade for a product that is water dependent. Thus, the adverse effect of water scarcity in a country may be ameliorated by encouraging exports of water-intensive cereal crops where water is in abundance and imported where water is scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A particular country's productive knowledge and sophistication become a crucial determinant for the exported products in the increasingly integrated global trade. However, studies that emphasize the connection between economic complexity and trade flows are still sparse. This research aims to examine the role of economic complexity on bilateral trade flows of 27 countries in COMESA and East Asia using the gravity model from 1995 till 2019. Based on countries' geographical regions and income levels, the empirical estimation of the study applied the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator. The main results are robust to various model specifications and consistent with the expectations of the gravity model indicators. The study found strong empirical evidence that the expansion of economic sophistication and diversification enlarges trade flows of different exported goods. Explicitly, economic complexity increases the exports of machinery and transport equipment alongside manufactured products, while its effects on agricultural exports are negligible. Thus, this study proposes that the countries should engage in more sophisticated Research and Development (R&D), attract multinational companies, establish industrial policies, and improve their productivity by utilizing the existing production network. They should move to a more diversified production and trade structure to enhance their bilateral trade flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the effect of free trade on intra-African bilateral trade balances for Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania to assess the potential implications of the African Continental Free Trade area. The four countries have experienced persistent trade deficits. Whether free trade within Africa can improve the national trade balances, and the drivers of bilateral trade balances are important questions for policy and strategic programmes for the countries to make the most gains from free trade area. The econometric model estimated for each country is an extension of the standard Keynesian model of trade balance to include determinants of bilateral trade flows from the gravity model. Quantitative analysis using panel regression was augmented with qualitative data from interviews with trade policy experts and trade officials from various African countries and focus group discussions with small-scale cross-border traders at the Busia and Namanga border posts in East Africa. Findings show that complete tariff elimination on intra–African trade may not impact the bilateral trade balances of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania but could improve bilateral trade balances for Uganda by 6 percent. Within the free trade areas, Uganda's bilateral trade balances were higher within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa but lower within the East African Community, than outside these areas. Kenya's trade balances were lower in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, than otherwise. On the contrary, no significant difference in trade balances is established for the membership of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in the East African Community; Rwanda in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; and Tanzania in the Southern African Development Community, when compared to trade balances with non-members. The importance of macroeconomic factors is demonstrated by the increase in bilateral trade balances with higher relative price levels of trade partners; the reduction with increase in relative production and expenditure capacities of trade partners; and improvements following a depreciation of home currency for Tanzania and Uganda, yet a worsening of trade balances in Kenya. A lack of harmony in documents required for cross-border movements within the free trade areas is reported as counterproductive. All African countries should therefore fully implement protocols and cooperate in the harmonization of trade procedures for the free movement of people and goods across borders. Country policies and trade programmes should pursue increased productivity in the leading intra-African export sectors and diversify exports via foreign direct investment in strategic sectors to substitute imports from outside Africa; reduce costs of production; increase the quality of products; and improve transport infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the gravity model and FMOLS estimation, to examine how economic sanctions affect the trade relationship between Iran and Nigeria. Additionally, it explores the influence of factors such as GDP, exchange rate, strong sanctions, and weak sanctions. By doing so, this research contributes to the existing knowledge on bilateral trade between these two nations and provides valuable insights into areas that require attention for fostering trade development between them. The research findings reveal that in the bilateral trade relationship between Iran and Nigeria, there exists a positive correlation between GDP and weak sanctions (LIM) with trade. An increase of 1% in GDP leads to a 7.79% increase in trade, while a 1% increase in weak sanctions contributes to a 3.91% increase in trade. Conversely, strong sanctions and exchange rate have a negative impact on trade, with a 1% increment in strong sanctions resulting in a 1.18% decrease in trade, and a 1% increment in exchange rate leading to a 1.96% decrease in trade.