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Phenological shifts are expected to affect species interactions, in part by influencing which size classes, life stages or species occur simultaneously in a community. Yet, changes in phenology beyond shifts to the first, mean or median date of an ontogenetic event are underexplored in their importance to community dynamics. Using outdoor mesocosms, we experimentally mimicked increasing variability in breeding phenology of a top predatory salamander in pond food webs (Ambystoma annulatum) to assess its impacts on its own demographic traits and survival. We also tested whether variability in predator breeding would cascade to impact survival and diversity of lower trophic levels (intermediate salamander predators, anuran tadpoles, zooplankton and periphyton). We found that only variability in body size at metamorphosis of A. annulatum was impacted by phenological manipulations, with size variability being greater at higher levels of phenological variability. Because size at metamorphosis is often correlated with adult fitness, covarying variability in body size and phenology may lead to altered population dynamics. We also found that the density and size of A. annulatum were better predictors of overall survival and diversity of amphibian prey compared to phenological variability. We speculate that overwintering mortality of A. annulatum due to pond freezing modulated the impacts of phenological variability, such that changes in demographic traits and cascading effects throughout the food web were mollified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Professional accountability is considered important to the legitimacy and survival of a profession. Prior research has examined the role of top-down scrutiny by audiences, such as supervisors, regulators, and certification agencies, in improving professional accountability. But the advent of social media platforms has increasingly enabled the bottom-up scrutiny of professionals—especially professionals on the front line—by audiences such as customers and the public. In this research, I examine how and when bottom-up scrutiny through social media (hereafter, social media scrutiny) impacts the accountability of frontline professionals. Conducting an ethnography of 911 emergency management organizations, I find that social media scrutiny of 911 call-takers—the frontline professionals in this setting—can obscure rather than improve professional accountability. I elaborate on how, why, and under what conditions social media scrutiny pushes frontline professionals to deviate from their mandate, which, in turn, obscures their sense of professional accountability. These processes also generate spillover effects on the everyday work and mandate of downstream professionals (e.g., 911 dispatchers, police officers), producing a cascading set of unintended consequences that further obscures accountability for multiple actors across the professional ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (tau;), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multiangle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ∼20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget "directly" by scattering and absorbing radiation and "indirectly" by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth, direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical thickness (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.037plusmn;0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21% is contributed by human activities, as determined by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOT of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ∼20% or 7plusmn;0.05. These highaccuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2Wm-2 (median ± standard error) over global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the ocean surface, the DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.4Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.±0.7Wm-2and -11.87plusmn;1.9Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. Despite these achievements, a number of issues remain open and more efforts are required to address them. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and under cloudy condition remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Hopefully, enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation, will further advance our knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As reproduction phenologies shift with climate change, populations can experience intraspecific priority effects, wherein early hatching cohorts experience an advantage over late-hatching cohorts, resulting in altered demography. Our study objective was to identify how variation in egg hatching phenology alters intraspecific interactions in small-mouthed salamanders, Ambystoma texanum. We addressed two research questions: (Q1) How are demographic responses altered by variation in the temporal duration of hatching between cohorts, and (Q2) How does the seasonality of hatching delays affect demographic responses? We manipulated hatching phenologies of A. texanum eggs and reared larvae in outdoor mesocosms to metamorphosis. For Q1, hatching delay exhibited non-linear relationships with survival and body size, with the greatest asynchrony in cohort additions resulting in the highest mortality and largest body sizes. For Q2, hatching delay effects were stronger (i.e., survival was lower and body sizes larger) when they occurred later in the season, potentially due to temperature differences that larvae experienced. Overall, our results demonstrate that changes in intraspecific interactions due to phenological shifts can be context-dependent, depending on the strength (i.e., temporal duration) and seasonality of such processes. Identifying context-dependencies of phenological shifts will be critical for predicting changes in organismal demographics with climatic shifts., (© 2024. The Author(s).)