Knowing What Matters: An Expanded Study of School Bond Elections in Michigan, 1998-2006

This study investigates what factors are associated with the likelihood of passing school facility construction bonds by local district election. It uses statewide data from Michigan, 1998-2006, to examine the outcome of 789 bond elections in terms of the following ten variables: amount of the bond request; district enrollment; district locale; percentage of students receiving free school lunches; percentage of the district population with only a high school degree; the district's long-term debt; voter turnout; the day of the calendar year on which the election is held; the number of the bond proposal on the ballot; and the inclusion of technology in the ballot proposal's wording. The logistic regression analysis finds that bond amount--percentage of students receiving free lunches, percentage of district population with only a high school degree, voter turnout, and being further down on the ballot--are all negative and significant factors. District long-term debt and holding the election later in the calendar year are both positive and significant factors. District enrollment numbers are non-significant. In terms of district locale--using mid-sized city and suburban districts as the reference group--being a small town and rural district is a negative and significant factor. (Contains 1 figure and 3 tables.)