COVID-19 and Intentions to Study Abroad: Evidence from Overseas University Applications to the UK

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate how COVID-19 impacted overseas students' decision to apply for an undergraduate degree at UK universities. Design/methodology/approach: This study compares the number of university applications from overseas students in summer and autumn 2020 with those in the period 2011-2019. Multivariate analysis techniques are used. Findings: The results show that the pandemic has led to a drop in university applications from foreign students by 11-14%. Such decline has been driven by a reduction in the number of applicants from high-income countries as opposed to those from middle-lower income countries. Two explanations may account for this finding. First, students from affluent countries, compared to those from poorer countries, may be more likely to find a good alternative to the UK where to carry out their studies (including their home country). Second, the option of deferring study abroad plans due to the pandemic may be more affordable for applicants from high-income countries. Originality/value: While understanding how COVID-19 has impacted international student mobility is an emerging issue in the literature, not only are there few studies providing evidence on this, but these are based on qualitative analysis. This paper uses quantitative methods that allow to separate the effect of COVID-19 from that associated with other factors affecting the flow of international students.