Variables Predicting the Odds of Failing to Progress onto the Second Year of Study for Criminology Students in a UK University

Globally, statistical analyses have found a range of variables that predict the odds of first-year students failing to progress at their Higher Education Institution (HEI). Some of these studies have included students from a range of disciplines. Yet despite the rise in the number of criminology students in HEIs in the UK, little statistical research has been carried out on this cohort. This paper reports on survey data gathered from three consecutive cohorts of first-year undergraduate Criminology students (n = 165) enrolled at a university in the North of England from 2014 to 2017. Twenty-five per cent (n = 42) of these students did not progress onto the second year of their programme. Binary logistic regression was carried out to identify variables that predict the odds of students failing to progress beyond their first year on their programme of study at their HEI. Results show that three variables positively indicated students failing to progress i) moving to study at their HEI, ii) thinking about dropping out towards the end of their first year and iii) being referred in assessments throughout the year (i.e. having to do assessments again because of grading below the pass-mark or non-submission). These findings can be used by HEIs to identify 'at-risk' students to implement safety nets of support throughout the whole of the students first year at university to decrease the odds of students not progressing with their programme of study beyond their first year.