Demythologising A Level Exam Standards

There are two major myths concerning A level exam standards in England. First, the Ancient Myth, which insists that standards were norm-referenced until the 1980s, when they transitioned to being criterion-referenced. Second, the Modern Myth, which insists that standards transitioned again, during the 2010s, to being based upon the comparable outcomes principle. The present paper debunks these myths, arguing that: except for the occasional use of comparable outcomes to bridge qualification reforms, A level standards have always been attainment-referenced; and that this has always been operationalised using a combination of methods, including both examiner judgement of exam performances and statistical expectations of cohort attainment. The paper also argues that what has changed significantly is the degree of confidence that the exam industry has placed in examiner judgement relative to statistical expectations, which has waxed and waned over time. When statistical expectations have prevailed, pass rates have tended to plateau; somewhat implausibly. When examiner judgement has prevailed, pass rates have tended to rise; also somewhat implausibly. These trends have given a false impression of principled transitions, which the paper dispels.