We Want You Back: Uncovering the Effects on In-Person Instructional Operations in Fall 2020

Postsecondary institutions' responses to COVID-19 are a topic of immediate relevance. Emergent research suggests that partisanship was more strongly linked to institutions offering in-person instruction for Fall 2020 than was COVID-19. Using data from the College Crisis Initiative and a multiple group structural equation modeling approach, we tested the relationships between our outcome of interest (in-person instruction in Fall 2020) and state and county sociopolitical features, state and county COVID-19 rates, and state revenue losses. Our full-sample model suggested that County Political Preferences had the strongest association with in-person instruction, followed by "Pandemic Severity" and "State Sociopolitical Features." Because institutional sectors may be uniquely sensitive to these factors, we tested our models separately on 4-year public, 4-year private, and 2-year public and 2-year private institutions. "State Sociopolitical Features" were significantly related to in-person instruction for 4-year private and 2-year public institutions but were strongest for 4-year public institutions. For 4-year private and 2-year public institutions, County Political Preferences' effect sizes were 2-3 times stronger than effects from "State Sociopolitical Features." "Pandemic Severity" was significantly, negatively related to in-person instruction for 4-year private and 2-year public institutions--similar in magnitude to "State Sociopolitical Features." Our analysis revealed that COVID-19 played a stronger role in determining in-person instruction in Fall 2020 than initial research using less sophisticated methods suggested--and while "State Sociopolitical Features" may have played a role in the decision, 4-year private and 2-year public institutions were more sensitive to county-level preferences.