Statistics in Public Policy Debates: Present Crises and Adult Mathematics Education

Statistics is one of the important branches of mathematics taught in schools, colleges and universities. It is also an important tool in public policy discussions. This paper focuses on the use of statistics in the latter context, rather than its use in adult mathematics education research. I review the key characteristics of the statistical approach to constructing public knowledge, and give a very brief history of key points in its development. I discuss how what I call the "overt crisis of statistics," the apparent disenchantment of large sections of the public with the "expert" statistical methods, outputs and pronouncements, leads to dilemmas both for citizens and for democratic governments. Recently "Big Data" and data analytics seem to many to offer new solutions to problems resulting from the essential lack of certainty surrounding efforts to understand society, and from the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world. These approaches have potential, but also limitations. This leads me to consider a second, "covert" crisis of statistics, resulting from a struggle between proponents of freely available public information and public argument, and those aiming to profit from the appropriation and sequestering of information for private ends. I finish by considering what can be done by ourselves, as citizens, as adult mathematics teachers, and as researchers.