Agri-Manpower Forecasting and Educational Planning

Purpose: Developing countries need to plan growth or expansion of education so as to provide required trained manpower for different occupational sectors. The paper assesses supply and demand of professional manpower in Indian agriculture and the demands are translated in to educational requirements. Methodology: The supply is assessed from the output from agricultural education. The demand in various sub-sectors is assessed employing a mix of quantitative and qualitative forecasting tools. Based on the manpower gaps and extensive interactions with stakeholders, the manpower needs are translated into educational requirements. Findings: The demand-supply gap in agricultural professionals would cumulate to about 200,000 by 2020, which would need additional annual supply of 10,000 each of diploma holders and graduates. Practical implications: The study makes three main recommendations: first, to increase the supply of graduates and para-staff to cater to the emerging demand; second, agricultural education needs to meet the changing occupational structure; and third, responsibility for meeting agriculture education to be shared with the private sector. Originality/value: The paper proposes a mixed method that could be used to forecast human resource requirement in number of sub-sectors having differential information availability and growth patterns in terms of quality and quantity. Since the approach facilitates forecasting in situations of data limitations, it has potential for similar applications in many developing countries.