Point Estimation of Certain Measures in Organizational Demography Using Variable-R Methods

Background: The distribution of job tenure plays an important role in demography, economics, and sociology. Job tenure in a labor market is analogous to age in a population. Demographers have used indirect methods based on variable-r methods to estimate parameters for life table models. The variable-r method can also be employed to estimate the parameters of a job tenure table model that yields the expected length of job tenure and related measures. Methods and Data: Only two retrospective surveys of current employee tenure lengths and a count of between-survey hires are required to estimate the parameters of a period tenure table using the variable-r method. Tenure-specific sources of decrement allow an analyst to estimate the parameters of multiple-decrement tenure tables and associated single-decrement tenure tables that isolate the proximate contribution of a specific decrement to the job separation process. I illustrate and evaluate the method using publicly available US data. Results: Variable-r methods generated reasonable parameter estimates: The expected job tenure was 2.48 years at 2002-2004 decrement rates. Multiple-decrement methods can estimate the fraction of employment relationships that end via job displacement. Cause-deleted tenure tables can capture the static effect of eliminating a particular risk to the population of employment relationships. Contribution: Arthur and Vaupel (1984) provide a framework for studying nonstable populations that subsume the variable-r relations that I utilize in this work. Vaupel had an interest in formal demography throughout his life but started his academic career in business statistics. This paper combines those interests.