Post-Pandemic Onset Public School Student Enrollment and Mobility in Virginia. COVID-19 Impacts Research Brief Series No. 1

The COVID-19 pandemic created unprecedented disruptions to school systems around the globe and Virginia's public school system was no exception. These disruptions likely impacted families' decisions about whether and where to enroll their children in public schools. However, many basic facts about how public school enrollment changed in the post-COVID era are not yet well established. In partnership with the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE), we analyzed statewide administrative data that allowed us to track individual students over time throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia to highlight how enrollment changed during the first full school year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our key findings include the following: (1) Statewide enrollment in pre-kindergarten through grade 12 dropped by four percent (53,830 students) between the pre-pandemic fall of 2019 and the first post-pandemic onset fall of 2020; (2) Enrollment drops occurred in most grade levels but were concentrated in pre-kindergarten and kindergarten. The largest enrollment declines were among White students and students who were not economically disadvantaged; (3) Changes in enrollment were explained mostly by decreases in the number of new students entering the Virginia public school system, although there was also an uptick in students exiting the system. The changes in exits were driven largely by increases in homeschooling and private school enrollment; (4) Among students who remained in the Virginia public school system, there was a decline in the share of students who moved between schools (by five percent) and between divisions (by nine percent), from one year to the next. We saw the largest declines in mobility for Black students and students with disabilities. Continuing to track these patterns will have important implications given the connection between student enrollment and school funding as well as student well-being and development.