A Post-Coronavirus Pandemic World: Some Possible Trends and Their Implications for Australian Higher Education. Discussion Paper

This paper summarises factors and emerging trends for higher education following from the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the responses of providers and governments. It is framed as a provocation to stimulate discussion about futures for higher education in Australia and beyond following the immediate COVID-19 disruption. While the evolving response to the pandemic makes prediction fraught, to provide concrete indication of the trajectory of many trends this paper draws on research into and past experience of similar economic, political and social 'shocks' to the provision of higher education in advanced economies. It examines how the coronavirus pandemic is magnifying existing pressures for universities and how it is providing new possibilities. The first section summarises ten trends and their associated drivers. Based on a PESTEL analysis, it includes codes for each item to signal the associated key factors contributing to the trend, including (P)olitical, (Ec)onomic, (S)ociocultural, (T)echnological, (L)egal and (En)vironmental. For each trend, we outline several implications for higher education provision in Australia. The second section synthesises these implications into a range of outcomes and questions.