The Likelihood of Completing a VET Qualification: A Model-Based Approach. Technical Paper

This paper estimates vocational education and training (VET) course-completion rates, in order to fill a gap in performance measures for the VET sector. The technique the authors use is to track all VET course enrolments within a three-year window, centred on the year of interest. Then, using an absorbing Markov chain model for a VET course enrolment, they estimate the proportion of VET course enrolments commencing in the year of interest that will eventually be completed. This approach allows them to estimate the completion rate without having to longitudinally track course enrolments over a long period of time. Findings reveal that: (1) The national estimated completion rate of VET course enrolments at certificate I level or above commencing in 2005 is 27.1%. For full-time VET students aged 25 years and under in 2005, this rate is 34.7%; (2) When cut by fields of education, the completion rates in 2005 range from 13.3% (for course enrolments in Mixed field programs) to 48.3% (for course enrolments in Education); and (3) Course enrolments at certificate III level had the highest rate of completion at 33.5% compared with other qualification levels. One of the distinctive characteristics of the VET sector is that many students wish to learn specific skills and have no intention of completing a full qualification. For these students a more sensible measure of success is the proportion of modules passed (the load pass rate). Overall, the load pass rate of 2005 enrolments was 79.1%. Appendices include: (1) Completion rate of new VET students; (2) Flow diagram; (3) Completions formula; and (4) Sample sizes. (Contains 9 tables, 2 figures, and 2 footnotes.)