Estimation of Apprentice and Trainee Statistics. Technical Paper

Apprentice and trainee data are reported by the State and Territory Training Authorities to the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) on a quarterly basis, starting at the September quarter of 1994. The set of data submitted that quarter is referred to as Collection 1. The sets of data submitted in subsequent quarters are referred to as Collection 2, Collection 3 and so on. At the time of writing, the set of data being submitted is for the June 2009 quarter and is referred to as Collection 60. Of particular interest is the numbers of contracts of training that commence, complete, cancel/withdraw, re-commence, expire or suspend and the time at which these events occur (referred to as the "date of effect"). From these events, the number of contracts in training at a given time can be calculated. Between the occurrence of one of these events and the appearance of the corresponding datum in the national collection, there is a chain of administrative processes that must be followed. It is not unusual for some time to elapse before information about events appears in the national collection. These time gaps are referred to as "reporting lags". Thus, data about events occurring in a given quarter might require several collections to be completely reported. As a result, accurate counts take time to accumulate. However, waiting for the all the data to be submitted reduces their usefulness. In order to get timely information that can be used for monitoring apprentice/trainee activity and formulating policy, a reliable estimate of the "final" counts is required as soon as possible after the quarter in which the events occur. The current method of calculating estimates from the Apprentice and Trainee collection was endorsed in September 2004 by the National Training Statistics Committee. The purpose of this technical paper is to describe: (1) the way data accumulate over many collections; (2) how items derived from the data change as the data accumulates; (3) the endorsed estimation method (developed from the analysis of the above); (4) the formulae for calculating the required estimates; and (5) potential weaknesses in the method. Supporting data is appended. (Contains 4 tables and 8 figures.) [For the accompanying report, "Apprentices and Trainees: September Quarter 2009", see ED508817.]