Job Growth and Replacement Needs in Nursing Occupations. Working Paper.

Analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data from 1987-2001 identified patterns in nursing employment. Overall, the Australian labor force increased 29%; nursing occupations increased only 18%. The number of nursing workers per 100,000 population has steadily declined. The average age of nursing workers increased significantly; the proportion aged 45 and over rose from 20% to 37%. In contrast to the overall labor force, the average hours per week of work in nursing occupations declined in the 1990s. Three of four nursing workers are professionals; employment in this group increased 30%, with managers, educators, researchers, and midwives experiencing the most growth. The demand for nursing workers was weak overall but very strong for those caring for aged or disabled persons, driven by population aging and a policy change to provide care in community settings. A shift of nursing education to universities, restructuring of the nursing work force, and fiscal constraints on hospitals have affected the nursing labor market. Growth projections to 2008 using a general equilibrium model suggest the average annual growth of nursing workers will be only 0.4%. The aging of both the population and the nursing work force and wider occupational choices for women will increase demand for nursing workers. (Contains 47 references.) (SK)