Military Propensity and Enlistment: Cross-Sectional and Panel Analyses of Correlates and Predictors. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper No. 41.

This study examines why some young men and women choose military service as well as what factors lead to successful enlisting among those who choose military service. It examines these questions using cross-sectional and longitudinal panel survey data from large nationwide samples of high school seniors, many of whom were followed into young adulthood. Potential correlates of military propensity and predictors of enlistment are considered under three broad categories: family and demographic background; educational background and aspirations; and a wide range of values, attitudes, and behaviors. Generally, results show that for men high grades, college plans, and the college preparatory curriculum are negatively associated with propensity. The data also show lower than average propensity among women with good grades and college plans. Results also show their views about the military in general, and particularly about employment conditions in the armed forces, are strongly associated with propensity and thus also with enlistment. Appendix I: Measures is divided into four sections: "Measures Used as Background Controls"; "Family Background and Demographics"; "Educational Attainment and Plans"; and "Indexes." Appendix II is made up of five parts: "Reporting the Results of MCA"; "Grand Mean"; "Variables"; "Factor Summary"; "Explained Variance"; and "Samples Used for Tables." Appendix III contains four parts: "Racial/Ethnic Differences"; "The Changing Racial/Ethnic Composition of the MTF Samples"; "Racial/Ethnic Differences in the Impacts of Family, Demographic, and Educational Background"; and "Number of Parents in the Home." (Contains 49 tables, 13 figures, and 18 references.) (MKA)