Trends in Military Propensity and the Propensity-Enlistment Relationship. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper No. 40.

This report discusses the University of Michigan's Monitoring the Future Project in relation to trends in military propensity and the relationship between propensity and enlistment. The findings show that the military propensities of most young people are firmly formed by the end of high school, especially among men. Substantial majorities of these young men expecting "definitely" to serve actually do so, usually enlisting within the first year or two after graduation. Young women are less likely than young men to say they want to enter military service, less likely to expect to enter, and less likely to enlist. Higher proportions of Blacks enter the military than Whites or Hispanics. During the time covered by the study there were shifts in the proportions of high school seniors expecting to enter military service, as well as in proportions planning for and entering college. Implications for future research are discussed. Appendix I provides measures; Appendix II provides data adjustments; and Appendix III discusses changes in the propensity-enlistment relationship over time. (Contains 18 tables, 16 figures and 12 references.) (MKA)