New Approaches to the Analysis of Academic Outcomes: Modeling Student Performance at a Community College. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

This study used structural modeling methodologies to analyze student outcomes at Prince George's Community College (PGCC) in Largo, Maryland. Path analysis and cluster analysis were used to analyze data on 2,643 first-time entrants to PGCC in fall 1990 over the course of 6 years. Path analysis revealed the centrality of student attitude factors (motivation, flexibility, academic gamesmanship) on student career success, as compared to the lesser impacts of social background, college preparedness, and other factors. It also highlighted the importance of the formative early semesters in setting student trajectories. Cluster analysis identified several varieties of success-prone students, as well as four varieties of low-achievement students. The results are discussed in light of Vincent Tinto's (1993) model of retention, which posits that success-prone college entrants will be those who, during their first year of study, learn how to become students, adopt academic and institutional identities, and integrate themselves into the college community. (MDM)