From Dreams to Dust: The Deteriorating Labor Market Fortunes of Young Adults. Policy Issues Monograph 96-02.

Over the past 2 decades, the inflation-adjusted median weekly earnings of full-time employed males and females decreased by 31% and 13%, respectively, and the deterioration in the real weekly earnings of young adults (ages 18-24) shows no signs of abatement. Male high school dropouts and graduates with no postsecondary schooling experienced the most severe earnings losses. Earnings declines among men with no postsecondary schooling were quite substantial among White, non-Hispanics, and Blacks and Hispanics. The steep decline in young adult earnings, especially among men, appears to be related primarily to labor demand and institutional factors rather than supply-side explanations (except for the rise in the pool of unskilled, immigrant labor). Compared to high school students in the early 1970s, young adults employed in 1993 had completed more years of schooling, were at least as proficient in math and reading, and had more years of potential work experience. However, those educational gains failed to result in the predicted improvement in real earnings. Federal government efforts to address youth labor market problems through programs such as school-to-work and employment and training for disadvantaged youth have produced relatively few positive impacts on participants' postprogram employment earnings. Contains 34 tables/charts and 60 endnotes. (MN)