Modeling Teacher Supply and Demand, with Commentary. Schools and Staffing Survey. Teacher Followup Survey. Research and Development Report.

An important purpose of the Schools and Staffing Survey of 1987-88 and the Teacher Followup Survey was to provide data useful for analyzing teacher demand and supply. This report summarizes the important issues related to teacher supply and demand; presents descriptive statistics on supply and demand; and develops and tests multivariate models to identify teacher, school, and district characteristics related to staying in and leaving teaching. The original sample included approximately 67,800 teachers and the follow-up included about 7,500 teachers. Previous research had identified a number of probable relationships between teacher attrition and various teacher, school, and district characteristics. Despite extensive data available on these characteristics, many expected relationships were not found. A possible explanation may be in limitations of the survey, which have been identified as the following: (1) the models tested were too large; (2) a test of the overall fit of the model should have been performed; (3) the relatively small number of learners may have contributed to the difficulty in obtaining results; and (4) the time frame for the analysis may have been too short. Survey data are presented in 26 tables. Appendix A contains two supplemental tables, and Appendix B presents technical notes. (SLD)