Longitudinal Study Using a Standardized Test Battery as Predictors of Student Outcomes in a Rural County School System.

This longitudinal study focused on predicting student outcomes through multiple test scores and vocational preferences using standardized instruments and self-reports of career plans. A total of 444 students in the class of 1986 were enrolled in either a non-vocational or vocational curriculum at one of 4 high schools in a small, rural, working-class school district during the 4 academic years between 1982-83 and 1985-86 and completed from 1 to 4 standardized tests as part of the district's comprehensive testing program. Three hundred and fourteen of these students actually graduated in 1986; these graduates were all administered the Differential Aptitude Test, Ohio Vocational Interest Survey, California Achievement Test, and Stanford Achievement Test; and they were mailed a follow-up questionnaire. Using the stepwise method of discriminant analysis to predict group membership, classification efficiency ranged from 61% to 74%, indicating that a significant portion of the class might have benefited from an alternative curriculum. Career choice and actual plans were more likely influenced by socioeconomic status, rural location, and expressed vocational preference than by actual test scores. Results suggest that some of the non-vocational students might have been more successful in a vocational curriculum. School counselors must help students achieve more congruence between test scores, expressed vocational choice, and their mitigating environmental circumstances. Four data tables and a 23-item list of references are included. (Author/TJH)