Revenue and Expenditure Projections for California K-12 Education, 1985-86 through 1989-90. Revised.

This study's investigator concludes that expenditures for elementary and secondary education in California must rise by 59 percent by the end of the decade to maintain the present level of per student spending and to meet forecasted educational improvement needs. Revenue funding and demographic projections presented indicate inadequate revenues for improvements. Key factors discussed and presented in tables are population, student enrollments, personal income, and inflation. The report evaluates all governmental revenue sources, noting that real revenues per student have increased only 12.7 percent during the last decade and that the purchasing power of K-12 revenues has declined. State revenues supply a majority of K-12 dollars, but revenues derived from personal income have dropped 29.1 percent, reflecting a national trend. Public school enrollments are projected to grow yearly through 1990. The report argues that this larger student population will require a significant increase in number of teachers to maintain the national average pupil-teacher ratio of 17.1 to 1. Alternative funding scenarios are considered and rejected as unlikely. The conclusion is that a demand for educational improvements in the form of real tax revenues per capita will not occur, nor will competing revenue demands from other state programs diminish. (CJH)