Institutional Responses to Enrollment Decline: The Role of Perceptions. ASHE 1986 Annual Meeting Paper.

Approaches to studying enrollment decline are compared and limitations and advantages associated with each method in predicting response to decline are assessed. The literature is reviewed to identify research perspectives on decline. Variables consistent with each perspective are identified and measured on a sample of 56 small- to medium-sized colleges and universities that experienced decline. Path analysis (LISREL V.) was used to compare perspectives and predictor variables. The literature indicated two major perspectives concerning organizational elements: (1) they are objective and measurable or (2) they are subjective, contextual, and knowable via interpretation. An initial assumption was that both the objective and interpretive approaches to studying decline are useful in describing organizational responses to decline. While the interpretive approach was superior to the objective measure for predicting responses to decline, both perspectives were important to understanding responses. It is suggested that the way organizational members perceive decline is important, along with the level of agreement on institutional mission, and managers' interpretations of external events to staff. A four-page list of references concludes the report. (SW)