Predicting Attrition in Admissions Using a Discriminant Model. SAIR Conference Paper.

A mathematical model designed to identify admitted college applicants who pay a tuition deposit but fail to attend the college was tested. A two-group discriminant model was built using 486 Trinity University students who paid deposits and enrolled as freshmen during the 1983-1984 academic year, and 72 persons who paid tuition deposits but did not enroll as freshmen. The variables included in the discriminant model were: verbal and mathematics Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, high school rank, high school grade point average, sex, amount of financial aid provided, and place of residence (in-state or out-of-state). For the 1983-1984 year, a significant difference was found between the two groups. The discriminant weights from this model were then applied to persons who paid deposits for entrance into the 1984-1985 freshman class. In this academic year, the model tested 610 students who paid deposits and enrolled and 79 persons who paid deposits but did not enroll. The second statistical analysis validated the previous year findings of a significant difference between the two groups. The accuracy of prediction was 75 percent for the 1983-1984 group and 68 percent for the 1984-1985 group. (SW)