Multiple Alternatives Modeling in Determining Fiscal Roll-Backs during Educational Funding Crises. Interim Draft. Paper and Report Series No. 70.

This report provides an extensive discussion of the use of criterion referenced, mathematical modeling procedures to determine which budget reductions minimize reduction in the quality of educational programs. Part I, "Evaluation of Potential Budgeting Roll-backs under Educational Fiscal Crisis," explains the basic design of multiple alternatives analysis and the context for its use. Chapters include (1) philosophical foundation for fiscal modeling, (2) program budgeting for an allocation/deallocation fiscal strategy, (3) traditional modeling via cost analytical design, (4) operations research and the evaluation of feasible alternatives, and (5) simulation modeling within a criterion-impact design. Included also is a background to the field investigation and outline of the technical report. Part II, "Multiple Alternatives Analysis as a Mathematical Decisioning [sic] Model," provides the technical and mathematical details of the analysis, including both construction and validation. Part III, "Field Application of the Rolbak Model," contains an extensive sampling of the use of these procedures in reducing a budget within a local school district, including chapters on (1) construction of the database, (2) initial T-normal transformations, (3) formulation of the rolbak mathematical model, (4) search for regional feasibility as a benchmark, (5) cyclic optimization of the restricted model, (6) cyclic optimization of the relaxed model, and (7) comparison of the restricted and relaxed "decisioning" models. Part IV summarizes the Multiple Alternatives Model and assesses its future. (TE)