Projections of Education Statistics to 1990-91. Volume I: Analytical Report.

In 5 chapters, 3 tables, and 43 figures, the authors describe national educational trends from 1970 to 1980 and project trends to 1990-91. This edition of "Projections" is the first one to be published in two volumes, to include a separate chapter on the demographics underlying the projections, and to omit projections of degrees by field of study. The report covers enrollments at all educational levels, numbers of high school graduates and earners of higher education degrees, numbers of instructional staff, and educational expenditures at all levels. All enrollment data are shown by organizational level and public or private control. Higher education enrollment data are controlled for the additional variables of student age, sex, and attendance status, two- or four-year program, and undergraduate or graduate level. Projections of teacher supply and demand are shown for full- or part-time status, academic rank, school educational level, and public or private control. The authors predict decreases through 1991 in high school graduates and, in higher education, in enrollment, instructional staff, total expenditures, and bachelor's degrees granted. Increases are expected in enrollment, teachers, and expenditures in all elementary and secondary schools. The financial data cover total expenditures, teacher salaries, capital outlays, and interest payments, in current (1980-81) dollars. The appendices contain a general description of the major forecasting techniques, constant dollar indexes from 1970-71 to 1980-81, and a glossary. (MLF)