Merit and Admissions Policy: Case Studies from Pakistan. Discussion Paper Series No. 59 D.

Studies were conducted to determine whether measures of intellectual merit that are used as criteria for admission to the University of Karachi in Pakistan have predictive validity. The predictive validity of the intermediate examination score was studied with recent graduates of the pharmacy, medicine, and engineering schools. Additional studies of business school and arts and sciences graduates were also conducted. Regression analyses indicated that the current criterion of merit (intermediate score) explained little of a student's subsequent university performance. Even after including matriculate test scores and several independent variables in the analysis, the regressions had little predictive power. Possible explanations of the findings and a discussion of the pros and cons of merit-based admissions criteria are presented. (SW)