Population Projections for Pennsylvania and Counties, 1970-2000.

Population projections developed by the Pennsylvania Department of Education, 1970 to 2000, have been updated to report the latest information on fertility and mortality trends and migration within the State. Methology utilized closely resembles the cohort component procedure, with multiple regression analysis applied to historical information for mortality and fertility rate projections and net migration estimates involving recent economic and labor trends. Statistics are discussed with tables and graphs provided. It is stated tha the population projection for the State indicate modest growth between 1970 and 2000, with the number of children aged 5 to 19 years expected to decline rapidly between 1970 and 1985. Thereafter, it is expected that the State's population will begin to stabilize, increasing only slightly over the next 30 years. Appended material, 82 pages, discusses the computation of fertility rates and presents the following statistics: population projections for the State, 1970 to 2000; population projections for the counties, 1970 to 2000; and population projections for Pennsylvania's 10 State Board of Education higher education planning regions, 1970 to 2000. (LH)