Forecasting--A Systematic Modeling Methodology. Paper No. 489.

In an attempt to bridge the gap between academic understanding and practical business use, the Box-Jenkins technique of time series analysis for forecasting future events is presented with a minimum of mathematical notation. The method is presented in three stages: a discussion of traditional forecasting techniques, focusing on traditional techniques that relate to the Box-Jenkins model; a presentation of the key characteristics of the Box-Jenkins model; and a detailed demonstration of the method's steps. A discussion of the technical requirements needed to use the model, its cost versus that of other forecasting methods, and the potential areas of its application conclude the paper. The mathematical rationale is appended. (Author/DW)