Projecting College and University Enrollments: Analysing The Past and Focusing the Future.

Today's enrollment situation is uncertain, especially in comparison with recent past. Some institutions experience growth in student numbers, while in others enrollments plateau or decline. Nontraditional students challenge a variety of institutional arrangements. Many past assumptions for predicting enrollments are inadequate. Projection studies have utilized techniques and produced results that have constructively shaped thinking about the enrollment picture of the future. This analysis of projection models is directed along two dimensions: first, a description of the studies in terms of strategies employed and the intended purpose of the study, and second, a comparison of the studies that identify problems with definitions, methodological limitations, and key assumptions. Strategies employed are grouped into 3 categories: trend extrapolation, policy alternatives, and futurist approaches. Projection studies analyzed were developed for purposes that include demographic description, planning information, resource needs, manpower supply and demand, and policy recommendations. The comparison of projection studies utilizes categories that are congruent with the information needs of leaders in educational systems and institutions. (Author/PG)