The Contribution Of The Austrian Forest-Based Sector To Climate Change Mitigation With Regard To Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation Measures In Austrian Forests

Forests and harvested wood products (HWP) can significantly contribute to meet nationally determined contributions (NDC) arising from the Paris Agreement. The global forest-based sector (FBS) and its contribution to climate change mitigation is not only affected by climate change impacts and expected forest adaptation measures affecting harvest rates and wood delivery but is also facing structural changes through global shifts in production centres and changes in production and consumption patterns.The presented project analysed mid- to long-term developments in the Austrian wood-based value chain using a partial equilibrium dynamic forest sector model for different climate change impacts and related adaptation measures in the forests including six scenarios: - two business-as-usual scenarios (for RCP 4.5 and 8.5), - a scenario assuming tree species shift through adaptive management, - a catastrophe scenario with rising impacts from storm, bark beetle infestation, and dry spells, - a scenario implementing a reduction of the rotation period and - a scenario aiming at the increase of the growing stock in forests.Simulations were conducted for the time period 2010-2150 including long-term forecasts for economic framework conditions until 2050 and assumptions for constant market conditions after 2050. Results help contribute to the understanding of carbon dynamics through a cascade of models comprising forest management, harvested wood products and life cycle assessments (considering material & energy substitution). Identification of critical factors helps to assess the potential contribution of the FBS to NDC. Furthermore, associated impacts on forest product markets as well as interdependencies within the FBS can be identified.