Quantitative assessment of deforestation and forest degradation in Margalla Hills National Park (MHNP): employing landsat data and socio-economic survey

Deforestation and forest degradation is a global concern, especially in developing countries. The Margalla Hills of Pakistan—Himalayan foothills—also face the threat of deforestation and forest degradation. These Margalla Hills, considering the need for forest protection activities in Pakistan, were declared a reserved national forest and named “the Margalla Hills National Park (MHNP)”. This study quantitively evaluates whether deforestation and forest degradation have occurred at MHNP and identifies their possible drivers. Satellite (Landsat) data 1988–2020 was employed for the land use change analysis, whereas a socio-economic survey of the local population and structured interviews with government officials were conducted to identify the drivers of deforestation. Supervised classification was performed for imagery classification and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) was also calculated to measure degradation. Supervised classification showed that the forest cover increased from 65% of the total area in 1988 to 69% in 2020. The VCI results show that the moderate level of degradation has increased from 3.5% of MHNP area in 1988 to 8.8% in 2020. The cumulative measure of degradation from 1988 to 2020 is 1.09% of the total forest (using p < 0.05). Major drivers identified are fuel wood and timber collection. The results reveal a decline in both deforestation and forest degradation. There is a need for further quantitative analysis of the drivers, strict implementation of legislative and control measures, and continuous invigilation of the deforestation trends in MHNP.