PT-HMC : Optimization-based Pre-Training with Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo Sampling for Driver Intention Recognition

Driver intention recognition (DIR) methods mostly rely on deep neural networks (DNNs). To use DNNs in asafety-critical real-world environment it is essential to quantify how confident the model is about the producedpredictions. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance and calibration of a temporal convolutionalnetwork (TCN) for multiple probabilistic deep learning (PDL) methods (Bayes-by-Backprop, Monte-Carlodropout, Deep ensembles, Stochastic Weight averaging - Gaussian, Multi SWA-G, cyclic Stochastic GradientHamiltonian Monte Carlo). Notably, we formalize an approach that combines optimization-based pre-trainingwith Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (PT-HMC) sampling, aiming to leverage the strengths of both techniques. Ouranalysis, conducted on two pre-processed open-source DIR datasets, reveals that PT-HMC not only matchesbut occasionally surpasses the performance of existing PDL methods. One of the remaining challenges thatprohibits the integration of a PDL-based DIR system into an actual car is the computational requirements toperform inference. Therefore, future work could focus on optimizing PDL methods to be more computationallyefficient without sacrificing performance or the ability to estimate uncertainties.