Wildfire exposure and risk in pulp paper companies’ plantations under extreme weather conditions: A case study in North-Western Portugal

Since the 1960's, Portugal has been affected by profound land use/land cover changes, which have boosted fuel continuity and fire-proneness nationwide. Within this context, the assets of pulp paper companies are exposed to large wildfires, which may cause severe economic losses. Wildfire simulations can help to scenarize and anticipate fire spread, contributing to efficiently allocate resources to protect values at risk. To test this framework, we assessed wildfire hazard in a 115,000 ha landscape, including 3,720 ha owned by two companies, with the aim of identifying the management units most exposed to large wildfires and the ones most at risk. We used Minimum Travel Time algorithm to estimate Burn Probability (BP), Fire Size (FS) and Conditional Flame Length (CFL). Wildfire hazard and exposure were assessed at the landscape-level; risk was estimated in production eucalypt plantations, by combining the annual BP with potential economic losses, based on management costs, loss of revenue and salvage wood. Our results showed that eucalypt plantations not managed by the companies represent a major threat to their patrimony. Industrial plantations with ages between 6 and 9 years have proven the most exposed. Very large wildfires (≥5,000 ha) can potentially spread in 53 % of the landscape, affecting 75 % of young eucalypt (<5 years) area. The 90 percentile of the risk ranges from 213 to 429 €ha year (9.6 % of production eucalypt area). This work resulted in a flexible methodology, replicable in Mediterranean regions with similar landcover. The information produced can provide additional guidance for wildfire prevention and risk management.