Biodiversity-production feedback effects lead to intensification traps in agricultural landscapes

Intensive agriculture with high reliance on pesticides and fertilizers constitutes a major strategy for ‘feeding the world’. However, such conventional intensification is linked to diminishing returns and can result in ‘intensification traps’ – production declines triggered by the negative feedback of biodiversity loss at high input levels. We developed a novel framework that integrates biodiversity in crop-yield assessments to evaluate risk and magnitude of intensification traps. Simulations grounded in literature reviews demonstrated that intensification traps emerge in most agricultural landscapes (73%), but rarely in major calorie production systems. Small reductions in maximal production by just 5–10% could be frequently transmitted into substantial biodiversity gains, resulting in small-loss large-gain trade-offs prevailing in landscapes with and without intensification traps. However, systematic sensitivity analyses revealed a strong context-dependence complicating the identification of optimal management practices at the field level. Hence, management safety margins need to be considered to prevent the double loss of biodiversity and food security linked to intensification traps.