Feedbacks between city development and coastal adaptation:A systems thinking approach

Current adaptation responses to sea-level rise tend to ignore the interplay of adaptation responses and city development, leading to unintended consequences with adverse impacts on citizens’ welfare, institutional performance, and economic capacities. This study introduces a generic causal loop diagram (CLD) model, a novel approach exploring the dynamics of coastal adaptation and city development at a city scale. Unveiling key feedback mechanisms—flood risk perception, economic capacity, and trust—reveals their central role in driving negative repercussions, irrespective of the chosen strategy (protection, accommodation, planned relocation). Specifically, fiscal motivations to increase flood exposure and reinforcing dynamics between trust and institutional capacity can significantly impact socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Protection and accommodation may stimulate development in risk areas, while planned relocation faces challenges. However, well-planned relocation offer resource-effective adaptation, mitigating economic and political repercussions through long-term planning. Although the CLD lacks consideration for external drivers and spatial-temporal complexities, it provides crucial insights for coastal adaptation planning. Emphasizing holistic decision-making and multidimensional effects, this research supports informed policy formulation, fostering collaboration between urban planners and flood risk managers for robust and sustainable coastal adaptation pathways.