Putting Malawi's Rural Communities into Focus: A holistic approach to investigating Malawi’s Flood Early Warning System

This thesis examines Malawi's Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) in the wake of the unprecedented impact of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in March 2023. By arguing that the current system lacks focus on the end-users’ perceptions of the warnings, we have developed a new Holistic FEWS Framework which combines institutional analysis with behavioral psychology theory, bringing the local communities into focus. The framework includes Polski & Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development Framework (2017) and Lindell & Perry’s Protective Action Decision Model (2012) and enables a thorough exploration of the FEWS's structure, community perceptions, and responses to early warnings. A case study of Zomba and Phalombe districts - recently affected yet historically overlooked areas - provides empirical insights through mixed-methods research, including key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and a household survey involving 813 respondents. Our analysis reveals that structural gaps are rooted in resource scarcity and lack of strong information management systems, which impedes the stakeholders from providing tailored and impact-based warnings to the communities. We argue that district capacity is uneven in Malawi, with a prioritization of usual flood-prone districts. Yet, climate change demands an all-encompassing capacitation of all districts as the country’s rural communities are heavily dependent on warning dissemination on the ground. Warnings received from mass media are unquestionably valued in the communities - however - to convince them about the threat’s impact, it is crucial that the Civil Protection Committees are empowered to deliver the warnings by knocking doors and facilitating local gatherings in the villages. We propose six policy recommendations for FEWS enhancement in Malawi: 1) restructuring of DWR and DCCMS for better coordination, data sharing, and effective