Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach

Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by