On track to net-zero? Large tourism enterprises and climate change

Much recent research on climate change mitigation has focused on carbon intensities, i.e. emissions per unit of economic value, to better understand interrelationships of decarbonization with value. This paper studies large tourism enterprises, which account for a large share of tourism's emissions. Based on annual reports, the paper evaluates greenhouse gas emission and revenue interrelationships for a total of n = 29 large tourism companies including airlines, cruise lines and accommodation businesses. Together, these companies represent about 13% (365 Mt CO2) of global tourism emissions, generating revenues of US$477 billion (in 2019). The paper tracks their total emissions and emission intensities over the period 2015–2019, revealing that large tourism firms are not on track to net-zero. Results show considerable differences in emission intensities between the three tourism subsectors and between individual firms within the subsectors. These findings are discussed against emission reduction needs to mid-century. There is strong evidence that continued growth at industry's expected rates represents an insurmountable barrier to net-zero, contradicting industry narratives of progressively and successfully engaging with climate change mitigation.