Analysis of Pathways to Reach Net Zero Naval Operations by 2050, Phase II

A previous analysis of pathways to reach net zero naval operations quantified Department of the Navy (DON) operational systems emissions and identified potential pathways to meet the 2050 reduction targets prioritized in executive orders and DOD climate strategies. The analysis generalized illustrative pathways allocating reduction potential for alternative fuels, hydrogen, unmanned systems, batteries, operational efficiencies, advanced nuclear energy, renewable energy, and carbon capture and sequestration. This follow-on, Phase II analysis considered the DON-unique challenges for integrating emissions reduction measures and cited reported climate science to assess the impact of four specific pathways: alternative force structure, advanced nuclear energy, platform carbon capture and storage, and sustainable fuels. The analysis assumed the Department will not accept any measure that could reduce operational capabilities on ships or aircraft and deduced that by 2050 conventional gas turbine and diesel engines will still demand up to 28 million barrels of F-76 and JP-5 fuels. The study concludes that alternative force structure concepts, like unmanned systems, could realize some emissions reductions by 2050; however, because future force design is responding to strategic competition against pacing adversaries, the future force will likely demand more operational energy offsetting those reductions. Advances in nuclear energy and non-drop-in alternative fuels like ammonia and methanol could enable some future capabilities, supporting the added energy requirement and reducing emissions, but will not likely proliferate to scale to support 2050 targets. Advances in platform carbon capture technologies are being tested in commercial maritime applications, but the power demand and CO2 storage requirements will likely preclude commissioned warships and naval aircraft. Sustainable fuels, and specifically drop-in fuels, offer the greatest potential for significant emissions redu