Long-term stability in the circumpolar foraging range of a Southern Ocean predator between the eras of whaling and rapid climate change

Significance Assessing change in Southern Ocean ecosystems is challenging due to its remoteness. Large-scale datasets that allow comparison between present-day conditions and those prior to large-scale ecosystem disturbances caused by humans (e.g., fishing/whaling) are rare. We infer the contemporary offshore foraging distribution of a marine predator, southern right whales (n = 1,002), using a customized stable isotope-based assignment approach based on biogeochemical models of the Southern Ocean. We then compare the contemporary distributions during the late austral summer and autumn to whaling catch data representing historical distributions during the same seasons. We show remarkable consistency of mid-latitude distribution across four centuries but shifts in foraging grounds in the past 30 y, particularly in the high latitudes that are likely driven by climate-associated alterations in prey availability. Abstract Assessing environmental changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems is difficult due to its remoteness and data sparsity. Monitoring marine predators that respond rapidly to environmental variation may enable us to track anthropogenic effects on ecosystems. Yet, many long-term datasets of marine predators are incomplete because they are spatially constrained and/or track ecosystems already modified by industrial fishing and whaling in the latter half of the 20th century. Here, we assess the contemporary offshore distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator, the southern right whale (SRW, Eubalaena australis), that forages on copepods and krill from ~30°S to the Antarctic ice edge (>60°S). We analyzed carbon and nitrogen isotope values of 1,002 skin samples from six genetically distinct SRW populations using a customized assignment approach that accounts for temporal and spatial variation in the Southern Ocean phytoplankton isoscape. Over the past three decades, SRWs increased their use of mid-latitude foraging grounds in the south Atlantic and southwest (SW