Decision support on flood management in complex urban settings. Is risk assessment the right approach or do we need decision heuristics?

Natural hazards, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, avalanches, etc., have severe societal impacts. This is not only, but in particular, the case in cities, where people and assets concentrate, and hence, the values at risk and potential damages accumulate (Rink et al. 2015). As a consequence of urban growth and climate change, these risks are likely to increase in many cities in the future, confronting urban decision makers with the question of whether their current portfolio of risk management options is sufficient or if more radical urban transformations are necessary to mitigate the societal impacts of natural hazards.